Pairwise course analysis
NMH Championship Coursevs.Middlesex 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Middlesex 5K Course runs slower
+1.10%
Roughly 13.2 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
19
Developing evidence
Median difference
-0.54%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+1.10%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+2.72%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-1.32% to +0.39%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | NMH Championship Course | Middlesex 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molly Epker | 2019 | 22:32.001 race | 21:49.001 race | -3.18% |
| Ella Brown | 2019 | 25:41.001 race | 24:52.001 race | -3.18% |
| Lily Roche Vanoot | 2019 | 24:55.001 race | 24:18.001 race | -2.47% |
| Kajsa Harrington | 2019 | 23:59.001 race | 23:24.001 race | -2.43% |
| Grace Hayward | 2019 | 21:05.001 race | 20:38.001 race | -2.13% |
| Celia Cheng | 2019 | 21:04.001 race | 20:42.001 race | -1.74% |
| Sophie Majernik | 2019 | 24:56.001 race | 24:31.001 race | -1.67% |
| Jane Saltzman | 2019 | 24:53.001 race | 24:33.001 race | -1.34% |
| Katie Armstrong | 2019 | 25:03.001 race | 24:50.001 race | -0.86% |
| Mari Capone | 2019 | 24:53.001 race | 24:45.001 race | -0.54% |
| Sophia Lowry | 2019 | 25:28.001 race | 25:28.001 race | 0.00% |
| Anya Cheng | 2019 | 21:27.001 race | 21:30.001 race | +0.23% |
| Claire Mao | 2019 | 24:11.001 race | 24:15.001 race | +0.28% |
| Emily Orscheln | 2019 | 21:24.001 race | 21:29.001 race | +0.39% |
| Caroline Finnerty | 2019 | 23:08.001 race | 23:23.001 race | +1.08% |
| Lindsay Saunders | 2019 | 25:27.001 race | 25:51.001 race | +1.57% |
| Devon Tyrie | 2019 | 24:09.001 race | 24:36.001 race | +1.86% |
| Alex Janower | 2019 | 25:02.001 race | 25:31.001 race | +1.93% |
| Macy Lindberg | 2019 | 25:14.001 race | 26:08.001 race | +3.57% |