Pairwise course analysis

NMH Championship Coursevs.Milton Standard 5K

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

Milton Standard 5K runs faster

-1.50%

Roughly 18.0 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

44

Strong evidence

Median difference

-1.17%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

-1.50%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+2.87%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

Milton Standard 5K fasterEvenMilton Standard 5K slower

Confidence interval

-2.47% to -0.59%

Scale shown

-5% to +5%

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonNMH Championship CourseMilton Standard 5KDifference
Pedro Mateo201921:24.001 race18:46.002 races-12.31%
Emma Zuccotti201929:59.001 race26:57.001 race-10.12%
Christian Westphal201921:11.001 race19:35.001 race-7.55%
Constance Legrand201926:01.001 race24:41.001 race-5.12%
Elizabeth Strang201926:10.001 race25:03.001 race-4.27%
Evita Thadhani201922:52.001 race21:55.001 race-4.15%
Aj Strang201917:10.001 race16:33.002 races-3.59%
Tara O'Malley201923:29.001 race22:41.001 race-3.41%
Buket Aktas201926:08.001 race25:24.001 race-2.81%
Tyler Forg201920:39.001 race20:07.001 race-2.58%
Yaman Habip201920:28.001 race19:57.001 race-2.52%
Jack Sullivan201920:03.001 race19:33.002 races-2.49%
Charlotte Torrey201928:18.001 race27:37.001 race-2.41%
Christiaan Eikeboom201919:01.001 race18:35.001 race-2.28%
Howard Huang201920:26.001 race19:59.001 race-2.20%
Catherine Anderson201926:17.001 race25:45.001 race-2.03%
Abraham Tolkoff201919:38.001 race19:15.001 race-1.95%
Aston Chan201919:49.001 race19:27.002 races-1.85%
Zach Neri201919:25.001 race19:08.002 races-1.46%
Jehan Boer201919:17.001 race19:01.002 races-1.38%
Natalie Williamson201922:19.001 race22:01.001 race-1.34%
Julia Torrey201922:14.001 race21:57.001 race-1.27%
Max Litvak201918:45.001 race18:33.002 races-1.07%
Larissa Wolfberg201926:52.001 race26:36.001 race-0.99%
Margo Becker201920:25.001 race20:13.001 race-0.98%
James Donahue201916:40.001 race16:31.001 race-0.90%
Ryan Wei201918:30.001 race18:22.002 races-0.72%
Harvey Rupp201921:01.001 race20:53.001 race-0.63%
Sreetej Digumarthi201920:29.001 race20:22.001 race-0.57%
Nicholas Hebard201922:05.001 race21:58.001 race-0.53%
Samantha Cody201924:22.001 race24:18.001 race-0.27%
Aidan McGaugh201918:02.001 race18:00.001 race-0.18%
Seb Park201920:54.001 race20:57.001 race+0.24%
Daniel Bittner201920:59.001 race21:05.001 race+0.48%
Charles Donahue201918:31.001 race18:41.001 race+0.90%
Evan Zhang201920:50.001 race21:03.001 race+1.04%
Thomas Strong201920:12.001 race20:30.001 race+1.49%
John Curtin201920:33.001 race20:53.001 race+1.62%
Alex Rodriguez201920:20.001 race20:40.001 race+1.64%
John Weldon201919:03.001 race19:22.001 race+1.66%
Charles Mullaney201920:01.001 race20:33.001 race+2.66%
Victor Xu201920:50.001 race21:25.001 race+2.80%
Gabriel Klug201921:13.001 race21:50.001 race+2.91%
Gianluca Foschi Walko201921:00.001 race21:42.001 race+3.33%