Pairwise course analysis
Nobles NEPSTA Coursevs.Brooks School 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Brooks School 5K runs slower
+3.52%
Roughly 42.2 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
23
Developing evidence
Median difference
+5.37%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+3.52%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.00%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
+4.61% to +7.42%
Scale shown
-8% to +8%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Nobles NEPSTA Course | Brooks School 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Fitzgerald | 2019 | 21:23.001 race | 21:29.001 race | +0.47% |
| Gigi Gillard | 2019 | 27:40.001 race | 28:15.001 race | +2.11% |
| Aidan Humphreys | 2019 | 19:21.001 race | 19:54.001 race | +2.84% |
| Grant Coldren | 2019 | 19:16.001 race | 19:52.001 race | +3.11% |
| Eloise Daniello | 2019 | 20:54.001 race | 21:35.001 race | +3.27% |
| Ryan Chiari | 2019 | 19:05.001 race | 19:44.001 race | +3.41% |
| Tommy Gaffey | 2019 | 16:35.001 race | 17:13.001 race | +3.82% |
| Lilly Bradley | 2019 | 19:18.001 race | 20:06.001 race | +4.15% |
| Ally Gilbert | 2019 | 26:05.001 race | 27:17.001 race | +4.60% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2019 | 20:42.001 race | 21:46.001 race | +5.15% |
| Meg Dugan | 2019 | 19:43.001 race | 20:45.001 race | +5.24% |
| Gabby Guerrero | 2019 | 18:55.001 race | 19:56.001 race | +5.37% |
| Alena Mulhern | 2019 | 23:52.001 race | 25:13.001 race | +5.66% |
| Cameron Walker | 2019 | 25:02.001 race | 26:34.001 race | +6.13% |
| Maddie Stearns | 2019 | 21:49.001 race | 23:12.001 race | +6.34% |
| Meghan Webb | 2019 | 21:40.001 race | 23:04.001 race | +6.46% |
| Garner Thompson | 2019 | 18:20.001 race | 19:33.001 race | +6.64% |
| Virginia Thompson | 2019 | 24:46.001 race | 26:27.001 race | +6.80% |
| Hadley Stanton | 2019 | 23:23.001 race | 25:19.001 race | +8.27% |
| Katie Wipf | 2019 | 20:41.001 race | 22:50.001 race | +10.39% |
| Grace Stanton | 2019 | 25:20.001 race | 28:17.001 race | +11.64% |
| Kylie Bogar | 2019 | 25:39.001 race | 29:00.001 race | +13.06% |
| Lindsay Tucker | 2019 | 24:20.001 race | 27:51.001 race | +14.45% |