Pairwise course analysis
Nobles NEPSTA Coursevs.Middlesex 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Middlesex 5K Course runs slower
+3.11%
Roughly 37.3 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
69
Strong evidence
Median difference
+2.57%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+3.11%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.15%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Middlesex 5K Course fasterEvenMiddlesex 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
+2.00% to +3.00%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Nobles NEPSTA Course | Middlesex 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Madison | 2019 | 17:28.001 race | 17:08.001 race | -1.91% |
| Will Cote | 2019 | 16:31.001 race | 16:20.001 race | -1.11% |
| Justin Qin | 2019 | 18:21.001 race | 18:11.001 race | -0.91% |
| Carter Bartel | 2019 | 20:19.001 race | 20:08.001 race | -0.90% |
| Quinn Donovan | 2019 | 17:00.001 race | 16:51.001 race | -0.88% |
| Andrew Harris | 2019 | 17:36.001 race | 17:28.003 races | -0.76% |
| Michael Thomas | 2019 | 18:51.001 race | 18:44.001 race | -0.62% |
| Liam O'Connor | 2019 | 19:16.001 race | 19:10.001 race | -0.52% |
| Caleb Gartner | 2019 | 16:25.001 race | 16:22.003 races | -0.30% |
| Max Gomez | 2019 | 18:26.001 race | 18:23.001 race | -0.27% |
| Matt Wing | 2019 | 17:23.001 race | 17:28.003 races | +0.48% |
| Javi Werner | 2019 | 17:29.001 race | 17:35.001 race | +0.57% |
| Andrew Kasparyan | 2019 | 19:02.001 race | 19:10.001 race | +0.70% |
| Cooper Austen | 2019 | 16:40.001 race | 16:48.003 races | +0.80% |
| Jack Starobin | 2019 | 18:10.001 race | 18:19.001 race | +0.83% |
| Charlie Guerra | 2019 | 19:31.001 race | 19:41.001 race | +0.85% |
| Ruby Massengale | 2019 | 27:24.001 race | 27:39.003 races | +0.91% |
| Connor Cross | 2019 | 18:04.001 race | 18:15.003 races | +1.01% |
| Gabby Walsh | 2019 | 20:21.001 race | 20:34.003 races | +1.06% |
| Arnav Harve | 2019 | 19:54.001 race | 20:07.001 race | +1.09% |
| Cannon Caspar | 2019 | 17:58.001 race | 18:10.003 races | +1.11% |
| Mac Hadden | 2019 | 17:00.001 race | 17:13.003 races | +1.27% |
| Peter Favero | 2019 | 18:20.001 race | 18:35.003 races | +1.36% |
| Patrick Denning | 2019 | 18:51.001 race | 19:07.001 race | +1.41% |
| Max Hall | 2019 | 18:44.001 race | 19:03.001 race | +1.69% |
| Mark Henshon | 2019 | 16:21.001 race | 16:39.001 race | +1.83% |
| Grace Luettgen | 2019 | 24:03.001 race | 24:32.003 races | +2.01% |
| Chris Millay | 2019 | 19:04.001 race | 19:27.001 race | +2.01% |
| Phoebe Lu | 2019 | 24:56.001 race | 25:28.003 races | +2.14% |
| Maanasi Chintamani | 2019 | 25:04.001 race | 25:38.003 races | +2.26% |
| Annabelle Rogers | 2019 | 21:13.001 race | 21:42.003 races | +2.28% |
| Alexander Messier | 2019 | 19:14.001 race | 19:42.001 race | +2.43% |
| Zan Danoff | 2019 | 18:18.001 race | 18:45.003 races | +2.46% |
| Finn Crawford | 2019 | 17:14.001 race | 17:40.001 race | +2.51% |
| Maya Sidhu | 2019 | 23:21.001 race | 23:57.003 races | +2.57% |
| Jillian Robertson | 2019 | 21:45.001 race | 22:19.003 races | +2.61% |
| Justin O'Toole | 2019 | 16:21.001 race | 16:48.001 race | +2.75% |
| Gavin Cassidy | 2019 | 19:22.001 race | 19:54.003 races | +2.75% |
| Meena Menon | 2019 | 21:34.001 race | 22:10.003 races | +2.78% |
| Vedant Deokar | 2019 | 20:57.001 race | 21:33.003 races | +2.86% |
| Mariam Craig | 2019 | 21:48.001 race | 22:26.003 races | +2.91% |
| Armando Walters | 2019 | 19:16.001 race | 19:50.001 race | +2.94% |
| David Sullivan | 2019 | 18:17.001 race | 18:50.001 race | +3.01% |
| Ethan Anderson | 2019 | 19:05.001 race | 19:41.001 race | +3.14% |
| Stone Shen | 2019 | 19:14.001 race | 19:52.002 races | +3.29% |
| Om Paithankar | 2019 | 21:00.001 race | 21:42.001 race | +3.33% |
| Sean McLaughlin | 2019 | 19:10.001 race | 19:49.002 races | +3.39% |
| David Latham | 2019 | 17:03.001 race | 17:39.003 races | +3.52% |
| Nolan McKenna | 2019 | 17:47.001 race | 18:26.001 race | +3.66% |
| Sam Jankey | 2019 | 20:44.001 race | 21:30.001 race | +3.70% |
| Caleb Krueger | 2019 | 17:53.001 race | 18:33.003 races | +3.73% |
| Oliver Wyner | 2019 | 21:27.001 race | 22:21.001 race | +4.20% |
| Rosie Qin | 2019 | 24:37.001 race | 25:39.003 races | +4.20% |
| Shawn Wu | 2019 | 19:44.001 race | 20:34.001 race | +4.22% |
| Megan Ding | 2019 | 24:13.001 race | 25:17.003 races | +4.40% |
| Khalid Abdulle | 2019 | 19:42.001 race | 20:35.001 race | +4.48% |
| Eric Diop | 2019 | 19:35.001 race | 20:28.001 race | +4.51% |
| Nina Douge | 2019 | 21:41.001 race | 22:42.003 races | +4.69% |
| Ian Richardson | 2019 | 20:38.001 race | 21:37.001 race | +4.77% |
| Henry Horvath | 2019 | 19:53.001 race | 20:53.002 races | +5.03% |
| Josie Silk | 2019 | 21:10.001 race | 22:14.003 races | +5.04% |
| Cameron Estrada | 2019 | 19:54.001 race | 20:58.001 race | +5.36% |
| Ryan Swords | 2019 | 19:28.001 race | 20:33.001 race | +5.57% |
| Austin Qu | 2019 | 20:12.001 race | 21:20.001 race | +5.61% |
| Niki Apostolicas | 2019 | 19:52.001 race | 21:01.001 race | +5.79% |
| John (Jake) Popeo | 2019 | 19:08.001 race | 20:19.001 race | +6.18% |
| Adam Ewing | 2019 | 19:55.001 race | 21:11.003 races | +6.36% |
| Thomas Reichard | 2019 | 19:02.001 race | 20:17.001 race | +6.57% |
| Mia Peng | 2019 | 25:42.001 race | 27:34.003 races | +7.26% |