Pairwise course analysis
Nobles NEPSTA Coursevs.Milton Standard 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Milton Standard 5K runs slower
+0.45%
Roughly 5.4 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
22
Developing evidence
Median difference
+0.86%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+0.45%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.96%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-0.19% to +2.31%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Nobles NEPSTA Course | Milton Standard 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aila McEnroe | 2019 | 28:32.001 race | 27:29.001 race | -3.68% |
| Izzy Cheney | 2019 | 23:17.001 race | 22:29.001 race | -3.44% |
| Zach Rogers | 2019 | 19:41.001 race | 19:04.001 race | -3.13% |
| Lily Manley | 2019 | 25:49.001 race | 25:07.001 race | -2.71% |
| Jerry Sang | 2019 | 25:42.001 race | 25:19.001 race | -1.49% |
| Mahiro Yamikawa | 2019 | 17:43.001 race | 17:33.001 race | -0.94% |
| Ellie Gable | 2019 | 25:28.001 race | 25:14.001 race | -0.92% |
| Calvin Cochran | 2019 | 19:52.001 race | 19:48.001 race | -0.34% |
| Jack Hutchison | 2019 | 18:08.001 race | 18:09.001 race | +0.09% |
| Nathan Anderson | 2019 | 18:12.001 race | 18:19.001 race | +0.64% |
| Sam Poulin | 2019 | 19:19.001 race | 19:29.001 race | +0.86% |
| Andrew Mottur | 2019 | 17:19.001 race | 17:28.001 race | +0.87% |
| Tony Guo | 2019 | 19:58.001 race | 20:26.001 race | +2.34% |
| Drew Kirk | 2019 | 18:28.001 race | 18:55.001 race | +2.44% |
| Abdel Barakat | 2019 | 18:49.001 race | 19:20.001 race | +2.75% |
| Dung Pham | 2019 | 23:12.001 race | 23:53.001 race | +2.95% |
| Bart Lojanarungsiri | 2019 | 22:12.001 race | 22:52.001 race | +3.00% |
| Grace Martin | 2019 | 23:34.001 race | 24:31.001 race | +4.03% |
| Alex Szynal | 2019 | 26:51.001 race | 27:56.001 race | +4.03% |
| Ross Stewart | 2019 | 18:24.001 race | 19:12.001 race | +4.35% |
| Maggie Xu | 2019 | 28:41.001 race | 30:12.001 race | +5.29% |
| Ethan Sweeney | 2019 | 17:56.001 race | 19:12.001 race | +7.06% |