Pairwise course analysis
Nobles NEPSTA Coursevs.Noble and Greenough School 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Noble and Greenough School 5K runs slower
+5.64%
Roughly 1:08 slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
18
Developing evidence
Median difference
+5.14%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+5.64%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+2.15%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
+4.24% to +6.39%
Scale shown
-8% to +8%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Nobles NEPSTA Course | Noble and Greenough School 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Qin | 2019 | 18:21.001 race | 18:42.004 races | +1.91% |
| Om Paithankar | 2019 | 21:00.001 race | 21:27.004 races | +2.14% |
| Carter Bartel | 2019 | 20:19.001 race | 20:58.004 races | +3.20% |
| Max Gomez | 2019 | 18:26.001 race | 19:04.004 races | +3.44% |
| Andrew Kasparyan | 2019 | 19:02.001 race | 19:47.004 races | +3.94% |
| Chris Millay | 2019 | 19:04.001 race | 19:50.004 races | +4.02% |
| Sam Jankey | 2019 | 20:44.001 race | 21:38.004 races | +4.34% |
| Austin Qu | 2019 | 20:12.001 race | 21:10.004 races | +4.79% |
| Arnav Harve | 2019 | 19:54.001 race | 20:54.004 races | +5.03% |
| Max Hall | 2019 | 18:44.001 race | 19:43.004 races | +5.25% |
| Charlie Guerra | 2019 | 19:31.001 race | 20:35.004 races | +5.47% |
| Finn Crawford | 2019 | 17:14.001 race | 18:17.004 races | +6.09% |
| Khalid Abdulle | 2019 | 19:42.001 race | 20:55.003 races | +6.18% |
| Ethan Anderson | 2019 | 19:05.001 race | 20:16.003 races | +6.20% |
| Niki Apostolicas | 2019 | 19:52.001 race | 21:06.003 races | +6.21% |
| Shawn Wu | 2019 | 19:44.001 race | 21:13.004 races | +7.52% |
| Patrick Denning | 2019 | 18:51.001 race | 20:30.004 races | +8.75% |
| Ryan Swords | 2019 | 19:28.001 race | 21:43.003 races | +11.56% |