Pairwise course analysis
Rock Meadow Short Loop 5Kvs.Governor's 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Governor's 5K Course runs slower
+1.27%
Roughly 15.3 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
37
Developing evidence
Median difference
+0.98%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+1.27%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+2.62%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-0.46% to +1.83%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Rock Meadow Short Loop 5K | Governor's 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Choumenkovitch | 2019 | 27:46.001 race | 24:49.001 race | -10.62% |
| Alessandro Barbiellini | 2019 | 24:28.001 race | 22:57.001 race | -6.20% |
| Cesar Hernandez | 2024 | 24:01.001 race | 22:42.001 race | -5.48% |
| Nathan Pappas | 2021 | 23:04.001 race | 22:29.001 race | -2.53% |
| Michael Bobo | 2021 | 21:55.001 race | 21:22.001 race | -2.51% |
| Patrick McDonald | 2019 | 18:38.001 race | 18:16.001 race | -1.97% |
| William Trautz | 2021 | 18:29.001 race | 18:14.001 race | -1.35% |
| James Donahue | 2021 | 16:06.001 race | 15:54.001 race | -1.24% |
| Ezra Lee | 2021 | 19:44.001 race | 19:33.001 race | -0.93% |
| Thomas Romney | 2021 | 19:13.001 race | 19:07.001 race | -0.52% |
| Jackson Pagan | 2021 | 20:04.001 race | 20:00.001 race | -0.33% |
| Howard Huang | 2021 | 22:40.001 race | 22:41.001 race | +0.07% |
| Aaron Stanger | 2021 | 19:07.001 race | 19:09.001 race | +0.17% |
| Luca Mezzanotte | 2021 | 22:18.001 race | 22:27.001 race | +0.67% |
| Arec Keomurjian | 2021 | 19:20.001 race | 19:28.001 race | +0.69% |
| William Hansen | 2019 | 21:29.001 race | 21:38.001 race | +0.70% |
| Carver Porter | 2021 | 21:29.001 race | 21:40.001 race | +0.85% |
| Miles Sandoski | 2021 | 17:47.001 race | 17:57.001 race | +0.94% |
| Duncan Kilbride | 2021 | 20:26.001 race | 20:38.001 race | +0.98% |
| Andrew Bittner | 2021 | 21:46.001 race | 22:00.001 race | +1.07% |
| Luis Sosa Espinal | 2024 | 21:34.001 race | 21:50.001 race | +1.24% |
| Antonio Martinez | 2024 | 20:09.001 race | 20:25.001 race | +1.32% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2021 | 19:21.001 race | 19:37.001 race | +1.38% |
| Jeremy Eaton | 2021 | 21:02.001 race | 21:20.001 race | +1.43% |
| Davin Roy | 2021 | 23:52.001 race | 24:19.001 race | +1.89% |
| Ryan Albertson | 2019 | 22:49.001 race | 23:15.001 race | +1.90% |
| David Carter | 2021 | 20:05.001 race | 20:29.001 race | +1.99% |
| Daniel Xie | 2021 | 22:24.001 race | 22:52.001 race | +2.08% |
| Abner Machuca Diaz | 2024 | 20:01.001 race | 20:27.001 race | +2.16% |
| Paris Liston | 2021 | 20:12.001 race | 20:39.001 race | +2.23% |
| Alexander Wasynczuk | 2024 | 20:30.001 race | 21:00.001 race | +2.44% |
| John Joyce | 2024 | 17:09.001 race | 17:46.001 race | +3.60% |
| Henry Gennari | 2019 | 22:52.001 race | 23:59.001 race | +4.88% |
| Reuben Siegel | 2021 | 22:23.001 race | 23:37.001 race | +5.51% |
| Joseph Koh | 2024 | 18:46.001 race | 19:52.001 race | +5.86% |
| Gabriel Simmons | 2021 | 21:37.001 race | 22:55.001 race | +6.01% |
| Cormac Anderson | 2024 | 22:25.001 race | 24:26.001 race | +9.00% |