Pairwise course analysis

Rock Meadow Short Loop 5Kvs.Washington Park 5K Course

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

Washington Park 5K Course runs faster

-2.56%

Roughly 30.7 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

41

Strong evidence

Median difference

-4.17%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

-2.56%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+7.46%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

Washington Park 5K Course fasterEvenWashington Park 5K Course slower

Confidence interval

-8.67% to -3.99%

Scale shown

-10% to +10%

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonRock Meadow Short Loop 5KWashington Park 5K CourseDifference
Jonathan Lai201937:41.001 race26:05.001 race-30.78%
David Porter201934:15.001 race25:28.001 race-25.64%
Jack Wang201923:50.001 race19:19.001 race-18.95%
Tyler Weisberg201921:02.001 race17:44.001 race-15.69%
Griffin Johnson201922:23.001 race19:33.001 race-12.66%
Oliver Ye201924:10.001 race21:09.001 race-12.48%
Sam Harris201923:41.001 race20:44.001 race-12.46%
Vivan Das201921:03.001 race19:02.001 race-9.58%
Andrew Mazza201919:31.001 race17:39.001 race-9.56%
Michael Lu201922:41.001 race20:34.001 race-9.33%
Derek Chang201919:15.001 race17:34.001 race-8.74%
Robert Hong201922:52.001 race20:57.001 race-8.38%
Kaiden Thomas201925:24.001 race23:20.001 race-8.14%
Tyler Santana201927:20.001 race25:08.001 race-8.05%
Condy Bao202122:19.001 race20:48.001 race-6.80%
Ryder Cavanagh201919:42.001 race18:25.001 race-6.51%
Alexander Wasynczuk202420:30.001 race19:20.001 race-5.69%
David Moon202523:06.001 race21:53.001 race-5.27%
Ian Bayliss201919:20.001 race18:24.001 race-4.83%
Luis Sosa Espinal202421:34.001 race20:35.001 race-4.56%
Joseph Koh202418:46.001 race17:59.001 race-4.17%
Cormac Anderson202422:25.001 race21:33.001 race-3.87%
Antonio Martinez202420:09.001 race19:26.001 race-3.56%
James Nichols-Worley202119:43.001 race19:03.001 race-3.38%
John Joyce202417:09.001 race16:36.001 race-3.21%
Matthew Ding202522:21.001 race21:41.001 race-2.98%
Martin Li202123:33.001 race22:57.001 race-2.55%
Dylan Zaterka202120:12.001 race19:44.001 race-2.31%
Hayden Gobron202119:22.001 race18:56.001 race-2.24%
Alexander Cederbaum202522:05.001 race21:36.001 race-2.19%
B Kwan202123:11.001 race22:44.001 race-1.94%
Ryan Hung202120:09.001 race19:52.001 race-1.41%
Henry Pojasek202522:06.001 race21:53.001 race-0.98%
Peilin Li202520:11.001 race20:06.001 race-0.41%
Eric Zhang202122:57.001 race22:55.001 race-0.15%
Finley Long202520:04.001 race20:10.001 race+0.50%
Alex Berk202521:34.001 race21:43.001 race+0.70%
Xutin Tang202518:32.001 race18:47.001 race+1.35%
Xuton Tang202518:30.001 race18:48.001 race+1.62%
David Xiong202518:08.001 race18:38.001 race+2.76%
Joshua Resnick202519:13.001 race19:55.002 races+3.64%