Pairwise course analysis
St. Georges 5Kvs.BB&N 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
BB&N 5K Course runs faster
-6.36%
Roughly 1:16 faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
201
Deep evidence
Median difference
-6.78%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-6.36%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+5.41%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
BB&N 5K Course fasterEvenBB&N 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
-7.37% to -5.82%
Scale shown
-8% to +8%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Georges 5K | BB&N 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Magura | 2023 | 28:07.001 race | 18:45.001 race | -33.31% |
| Nancy Jiang | 2019 | 38:21.001 race | 27:51.001 race | -27.38% |
| Caroline Garvey | 2019 | 30:17.001 race | 23:01.002 races | -24.00% |
| Priya Devavaeam | 2019 | 29:42.001 race | 24:33.002 races | -17.34% |
| Charlie Zhang | 2022 | 27:34.001 race | 23:15.001 race | -15.66% |
| Eric Lin | 2019 | 33:14.001 race | 28:08.001 race | -15.35% |
| Caroline Quirk | 2022 | 32:03.001 race | 27:09.001 race | -15.29% |
| Oscar Caprano | 2019 | 26:18.001 race | 22:20.002 races | -15.08% |
| Maisy Holch | 2022 | 27:48.001 race | 23:43.001 race | -14.69% |
| Pablo Paxtor | 2022 | 22:30.001 race | 19:15.001 race | -14.44% |
| Jerry Yin | 2022 | 29:35.001 race | 25:21.001 race | -14.31% |
| Margaret Kaneb | 2023 | 29:06.001 race | 25:04.001 race | -13.86% |
| Augustus Hawk | 2019 | 23:14.001 race | 20:02.003 races | -13.77% |
| Dhruv Padmanabhan | 2019 | 26:52.001 race | 23:14.003 races | -13.52% |
| Tess Holland | 2019 | 26:25.001 race | 22:59.003 races | -13.00% |
| Lakshmi Bogelli | 2019 | 36:31.001 race | 31:47.001 race | -12.96% |
| Nicholas Tao | 2019 | 21:43.001 race | 18:58.003 races | -12.66% |
| Dhruva Tailam | 2023 | 24:29.001 race | 21:23.001 race | -12.66% |
| David Min | 2019 | 29:28.001 race | 25:48.001 race | -12.44% |
| Olivia Knight | 2019 | 22:07.001 race | 19:23.003 races | -12.36% |
| Jana Choe | 2019 | 36:25.001 race | 31:56.001 race | -12.31% |
| Erika Goji | 2022 | 30:00.001 race | 26:21.001 race | -12.17% |
| Lilly Maki | 2022 | 29:36.001 race | 26:05.001 race | -11.88% |
| Samson Nwobi | 2023 | 30:43.001 race | 27:09.001 race | -11.61% |
| Mathew Hong | 2019 | 20:41.001 race | 18:17.003 races | -11.60% |
| Katie Riley | 2019 | 30:57.001 race | 27:25.001 race | -11.42% |
| Mateo Garciarramos-Petrici | 2023 | 25:14.001 race | 22:22.001 race | -11.36% |
| Jake Elkins | 2019 | 20:33.001 race | 18:14.003 races | -11.27% |
| Flynn Coyne | 2022 | 24:10.001 race | 21:35.002 races | -10.69% |
| Mei-Ling Bielagus | 2024 | 22:21.001 race | 20:01.001 race | -10.44% |
| Julia Wang | 2022 | 28:03.001 race | 25:11.001 race | -10.22% |
| Thompson Zhou | 2022 | 24:51.001 race | 22:19.001 race | -10.19% |
| Arden Conine | 2019 | 25:25.001 race | 22:52.003 races | -10.03% |
| Tim Guan | 2019 | 27:42.001 race | 24:58.002 races | -9.87% |
| Thaddaeus Flatz-Ehrfeld | 2023 | 21:36.001 race | 19:29.001 race | -9.80% |
| Nina Khera | 2022 | 27:18.001 race | 24:38.001 race | -9.77% |
| Finley Long | 2022 | 21:10.001 race | 19:08.002 races | -9.61% |
| Christian Batemen | 2019 | 21:42.001 race | 19:37.003 races | -9.60% |
| Owen Dowden | 2019 | 27:41.001 race | 25:02.003 races | -9.57% |
| Sam Modur | 2019 | 25:19.001 race | 22:55.002 races | -9.48% |
| Konstantin Lukin-Yelin | 2019 | 20:37.001 race | 18:41.003 races | -9.38% |
| Zane Davis | 2019 | 24:06.001 race | 21:51.003 races | -9.34% |
| Ford Legg | 2019 | 22:20.001 race | 20:15.002 races | -9.33% |
| Benjamin Hebbel | 2022 | 18:48.001 race | 17:03.001 race | -9.31% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 2022 | 25:26.001 race | 23:04.001 race | -9.31% |
| Kimia Monzavi | 2019 | 35:32.001 race | 32:14.002 races | -9.29% |
| Douglas Zhang | 2022 | 22:58.001 race | 20:52.001 race | -9.14% |
| Flynn Coyne | 2019 | 25:54.001 race | 23:32.003 races | -9.14% |
| Bart Lojanarungsiri | 2022 | 21:02.001 race | 19:08.001 race | -9.03% |
| Kevin Cheng | 2022 | 28:28.001 race | 25:54.001 race | -9.02% |
| Walker Cox | 2022 | 24:31.001 race | 22:22.001 race | -8.77% |
| Alex Hallstrom | 2019 | 22:32.001 race | 20:34.001 race | -8.73% |
| Cole Bourgeois | 2019 | 21:04.001 race | 19:14.001 race | -8.70% |
| Natalie Sun | 2023 | 27:13.001 race | 24:51.001 race | -8.70% |
| Juwon Lee | 2023 | 29:13.001 race | 26:41.001 race | -8.67% |
| Sam Modur | 2022 | 22:08.001 race | 20:14.001 race | -8.58% |
| Christian Hernandez | 2022 | 24:34.001 race | 22:28.001 race | -8.55% |
| Anna Garvey | 2019 | 24:29.001 race | 22:24.003 races | -8.51% |
| Bradley Weldon | 2022 | 20:24.001 race | 18:40.001 race | -8.50% |
| Carlos Panayiotopoulos | 2019 | 23:49.001 race | 21:48.003 races | -8.47% |
| Philip Holland | 2023 | 21:43.001 race | 19:53.001 race | -8.44% |
| Diego Abadie | 2022 | 21:12.001 race | 19:25.002 races | -8.41% |
| Zach Lonberg | 2019 | 26:32.001 race | 24:19.001 race | -8.35% |
| David Xiong | 2022 | 20:24.001 race | 18:42.002 races | -8.33% |
| Benjamin Kuo | 2022 | 19:05.001 race | 17:30.001 race | -8.30% |
| Lucy Rainer | 2019 | 28:36.001 race | 26:14.001 race | -8.28% |
| Cara (c Nugent | 2019 | 24:59.001 race | 22:57.001 race | -8.14% |
| Julia Maimones | 2019 | 23:38.001 race | 21:44.002 races | -8.04% |
| Joshua Curhan | 2022 | 20:25.001 race | 18:47.002 races | -8.00% |
| Ryan King | 2019 | 28:20.001 race | 26:04.001 race | -8.00% |
| Liv Ding | 2023 | 26:45.001 race | 24:37.001 race | -7.98% |
| Charles Jackivicz | 2022 | 19:41.001 race | 18:07.001 race | -7.96% |
| Stephanie Mo | 2023 | 27:46.001 race | 25:34.001 race | -7.92% |
| Sam Rabieh | 2019 | 18:47.001 race | 17:18.002 races | -7.90% |
| Phoebe Cogan | 2023 | 21:59.001 race | 20:15.001 race | -7.88% |
| Noah Divon | 2022 | 23:26.001 race | 21:36.001 race | -7.82% |
| Pedro Mateo | 2019 | 19:55.001 race | 18:22.001 race | -7.78% |
| Aiden English | 2019 | 25:28.001 race | 23:30.001 race | -7.72% |
| Sydney Nelson | 2023 | 25:57.001 race | 23:57.001 race | -7.71% |
| Lindy Zhang | 2023 | 23:22.001 race | 21:34.001 race | -7.70% |
| Mikayla Higgins | 2022 | 27:33.001 race | 25:26.001 race | -7.68% |
| Damien West | 2023 | 19:21.001 race | 17:52.001 race | -7.67% |
| Shawna Liu | 2022 | 25:06.001 race | 23:11.001 race | -7.64% |
| Wes Gray | 2024 | 25:07.001 race | 23:12.001 race | -7.63% |
| Alexandra Nicholas | 2022 | 26:10.001 race | 24:14.001 race | -7.39% |
| Nika Farokhzad | 2019 | 27:59.001 race | 25:56.001 race | -7.33% |
| Beckett Dubovik | 2022 | 22:05.001 race | 20:28.001 race | -7.32% |
| Grigory Menshikov | 2019 | 28:11.001 race | 26:08.001 race | -7.27% |
| Arav Kochhar | 2024 | 24:44.001 race | 22:57.001 race | -7.21% |
| Lorenzo Johnson | 2023 | 20:12.001 race | 18:45.001 race | -7.18% |
| Kathryn Martin | 2022 | 25:48.001 race | 23:57.001 race | -7.17% |
| Katalin (Kata) Clark | 2023 | 19:53.001 race | 18:28.001 race | -7.12% |
| Olivia Crisafi | 2019 | 29:11.001 race | 27:07.001 race | -7.08% |
| George Scanlon | 2022 | 22:12.001 race | 20:38.001 race | -7.06% |
| Sarah Ku | 2023 | 27:04.001 race | 25:10.001 race | -7.02% |
| Charles Chen | 2019 | 25:42.001 race | 23:54.003 races | -7.00% |
| Isabelle Stewart | 2019 | 28:10.001 race | 26:13.001 race | -6.92% |
| Alexander Cohen | 2022 | 27:02.001 race | 25:10.001 race | -6.91% |
| Sophie Kelly | 2024 | 25:48.001 race | 24:02.001 race | -6.85% |
| Nicolas Huaco | 2022 | 18:30.001 race | 17:14.001 race | -6.85% |
| Ford Legg | 2022 | 20:24.001 race | 19:01.002 races | -6.78% |
| Raymond Hildreth | 2023 | 20:32.001 race | 19:09.001 race | -6.74% |
| Constance Legrand | 2019 | 26:35.001 race | 24:48.001 race | -6.71% |
| Ella McDonald | 2024 | 23:14.001 race | 21:44.001 race | -6.46% |
| Corrine Waters | 2019 | 23:46.001 race | 22:15.002 races | -6.38% |
| Lucy McCormick | 2024 | 23:39.001 race | 22:09.001 race | -6.34% |
| Henry Sielheimer | 2023 | 22:43.001 race | 21:17.001 race | -6.31% |
| Leo Lin | 2019 | 23:45.001 race | 22:16.001 race | -6.25% |
| Talia Jachimowicz | 2019 | 26:35.001 race | 24:56.001 race | -6.21% |
| Ashley Sink | 2022 | 22:49.001 race | 21:25.001 race | -6.14% |
| Louis Levy | 2019 | 22:43.001 race | 21:20.002 races | -6.09% |
| Ryan Loughran | 2019 | 19:10.001 race | 18:00.003 races | -6.09% |
| Jonathan Andreoli | 2022 | 24:40.001 race | 23:11.001 race | -6.01% |
| Quinn Anderson-Song | 2019 | 20:15.001 race | 19:02.001 race | -6.01% |
| Liam Warren | 2023 | 19:51.001 race | 18:40.001 race | -5.96% |
| Alex Hass | 2019 | 21:14.001 race | 19:59.001 race | -5.89% |
| Hollen Knoell | 2019 | 26:31.001 race | 24:58.001 race | -5.85% |
| Aleah Ghiasuddin | 2019 | 29:12.001 race | 27:30.001 race | -5.82% |
| Grace Pilkington | 2023 | 28:56.001 race | 27:15.001 race | -5.82% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 2024 | 20:25.001 race | 19:14.001 race | -5.80% |
| Eric Berard | 2019 | 19:01.001 race | 17:55.001 race | -5.78% |
| Lucas Liu | 2019 | 22:58.001 race | 21:42.002 races | -5.52% |
| Aryan Mago | 2023 | 22:06.001 race | 20:53.001 race | -5.51% |
| Brady Preneta | 2024 | 21:48.001 race | 20:36.001 race | -5.50% |
| Nina Shah | 2019 | 29:16.001 race | 27:41.001 race | -5.41% |
| Gabe Cooper | 2022 | 19:45.001 race | 18:41.002 races | -5.40% |
| Christopher Hovet | 2023 | 17:00.001 race | 16:05.001 race | -5.39% |
| Alana Kramer-Gomez | 2022 | 22:40.001 race | 21:27.001 race | -5.37% |
| Martin Beaumont-Mill | 2024 | 21:28.001 race | 20:23.001 race | -5.05% |
| Forrester Clark | 2023 | 18:16.001 race | 17:21.001 race | -5.02% |
| Sylvia Brennan | 2022 | 21:40.001 race | 20:35.002 races | -5.00% |
| Eben Dooling | 2023 | 22:09.001 race | 21:03.001 race | -4.97% |
| Dylan Uttam | 2024 | 20:56.001 race | 19:54.001 race | -4.94% |
| Sahovan Modi | 2023 | 21:42.001 race | 20:38.001 race | -4.92% |
| Kamran Bradley | 2023 | 23:07.001 race | 22:00.001 race | -4.83% |
| Hannah Bernstein | 2022 | 21:46.001 race | 20:43.001 race | -4.82% |
| Anna Hamblet | 2019 | 24:54.001 race | 23:43.001 race | -4.75% |
| Gabrielle Martin | 2022 | 24:18.001 race | 23:09.001 race | -4.73% |
| David Yu | 2023 | 24:11.001 race | 23:03.001 race | -4.69% |
| Jeremy Gall | 2023 | 19:11.001 race | 18:18.001 race | -4.60% |
| Max Rochford | 2024 | 23:55.001 race | 22:49.001 race | -4.60% |
| Naomi Hammerschlag | 2022 | 21:52.001 race | 20:54.002 races | -4.42% |
| Caroline Kovacs | 2022 | 21:34.001 race | 20:38.001 race | -4.33% |
| Adyson Duval | 2023 | 24:55.001 race | 23:53.001 race | -4.15% |
| Tatum Glynn | 2023 | 25:10.001 race | 24:08.001 race | -4.11% |
| Elena Gordon | 2024 | 25:01.001 race | 24:00.001 race | -4.06% |
| Cameron Gonzalez | 2022 | 18:38.001 race | 17:54.001 race | -3.94% |
| Andreu Beltran | 2022 | 22:32.001 race | 21:39.001 race | -3.92% |
| Eric Ge | 2023 | 18:51.001 race | 18:07.001 race | -3.89% |
| Avery Rubins | 2019 | 25:43.001 race | 24:43.001 race | -3.89% |
| Gabriela Gill | 2023 | 23:01.001 race | 22:08.001 race | -3.84% |
| Andrew Rodriguez | 2019 | 25:31.001 race | 24:34.001 race | -3.72% |
| Chase Bellamy | 2023 | 19:54.001 race | 19:11.001 race | -3.60% |
| Gabrielle Martin | 2019 | 27:27.001 race | 26:29.003 races | -3.52% |
| DK Rhee | 2024 | 30:28.001 race | 29:24.001 race | -3.50% |
| Libby Waterfall | 2019 | 25:20.001 race | 24:28.001 race | -3.42% |
| Samson Oblak | 2023 | 22:51.001 race | 22:05.001 race | -3.36% |
| Thomas Ireland | 2024 | 20:03.001 race | 19:23.001 race | -3.33% |
| Austin Corbett | 2024 | 18:26.001 race | 17:50.001 race | -3.25% |
| Penelope Tregoe | 2023 | 23:44.001 race | 22:58.001 race | -3.23% |
| Cordelia Loomis | 2019 | 25:19.001 race | 24:30.001 race | -3.23% |
| Caroline Creasy | 2023 | 22:52.001 race | 22:09.001 race | -3.13% |
| Alex Rodriguez | 2019 | 21:30.001 race | 20:50.001 race | -3.10% |
| Aj Strang | 2019 | 16:59.001 race | 16:28.001 race | -3.04% |
| Luke Peabody | 2022 | 19:14.001 race | 18:39.001 race | -3.03% |
| Michael Lu | 2023 | 19:48.001 race | 19:14.001 race | -2.86% |
| Peter Abenante | 2024 | 20:35.001 race | 20:00.001 race | -2.83% |
| Jeanette Hitt | 2019 | 24:30.001 race | 23:53.001 race | -2.52% |
| Drake Tarlow | 2023 | 21:21.001 race | 20:49.001 race | -2.50% |
| Zach Rahaman | 2019 | 21:46.001 race | 21:14.001 race | -2.45% |
| Seb Park | 2019 | 21:25.001 race | 20:59.001 race | -2.02% |
| Jacob (Coby) Mulliken | 2019 | 20:45.001 race | 20:22.001 race | -1.85% |
| Arden Sartori | 2023 | 24:56.001 race | 24:29.001 race | -1.80% |
| Katelyn Pereira | 2024 | 24:45.001 race | 24:19.001 race | -1.75% |
| Jason Li | 2024 | 24:09.001 race | 23:45.001 race | -1.66% |
| Jehan Boer | 2019 | 19:10.001 race | 18:55.001 race | -1.30% |
| Justin Lin | 2019 | 22:44.001 race | 22:27.001 race | -1.25% |
| Josh Taylor | 2024 | 21:33.001 race | 21:19.001 race | -1.08% |
| Alexa Burton | 2019 | 22:05.001 race | 21:55.001 race | -0.75% |
| Jeanna Shaw | 2019 | 24:32.001 race | 24:21.001 race | -0.75% |
| Catherine Anderson | 2019 | 26:58.001 race | 26:47.001 race | -0.68% |
| Aston Chan | 2019 | 19:32.001 race | 19:26.001 race | -0.51% |
| Natalie Williamson | 2019 | 22:38.001 race | 22:32.001 race | -0.44% |
| Jillian Bergeron | 2024 | 19:54.001 race | 19:50.001 race | -0.34% |
| Buket Aktas | 2019 | 26:38.001 race | 26:43.001 race | +0.31% |
| Armaun Dehpanah | 2023 | 23:07.001 race | 23:12.001 race | +0.36% |
| Julia Torrey | 2019 | 23:04.001 race | 23:09.001 race | +0.36% |
| Max Litvak | 2019 | 18:27.001 race | 18:31.001 race | +0.36% |
| Jack Sullivan | 2019 | 20:07.001 race | 20:15.001 race | +0.66% |
| Elizabeth Strang | 2019 | 26:20.001 race | 26:42.001 race | +1.39% |
| Elliot Smith | 2019 | 21:49.001 race | 22:23.001 race | +2.60% |
| Peter Leitzes | 2019 | 19:04.001 race | 19:39.001 race | +3.06% |
| Larissa Wolfberg | 2019 | 25:12.001 race | 26:01.001 race | +3.24% |
| Leo Charlamb | 2023 | 27:40.001 race | 28:46.001 race | +3.98% |
| Ellie Mraz | 2019 | 21:13.001 race | 22:26.001 race | +5.73% |
| Myles Ndiritu | 2019 | 24:53.001 race | 26:23.001 race | +6.03% |
| Tim Fan | 2019 | 20:06.001 race | 21:20.001 race | +6.14% |
| Kaia Eckton | 2019 | 28:53.001 race | 30:45.002 races | +6.46% |
| Eliza Hartnick | 2019 | 28:41.001 race | 31:15.001 race | +8.95% |
| Ava Marinaro | 2023 | 29:06.001 race | 31:54.001 race | +9.62% |
| Michelle Chen | 2019 | 30:53.001 race | 35:39.001 race | +15.43% |