Pairwise course analysis
St. Georges 5Kvs.Governor's 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Governor's 5K Course runs slower
+0.84%
Roughly 10.1 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
237
Deep evidence
Median difference
+1.07%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+0.84%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+6.54%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Governor's 5K Course fasterEvenGovernor's 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
+0.14% to +1.43%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Georges 5K | Governor's 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden Ebbrell | 2023 | 36:38.001 race | 30:32.002 races | -16.65% |
| Alexander Kirby | 2021 | 25:09.001 race | 21:21.001 race | -15.11% |
| Liv Pasquale | 2019 | 38:06.001 race | 33:09.002 races | -12.99% |
| Aiden English | 2019 | 25:28.001 race | 22:47.002 races | -10.54% |
| Eric Lin | 2019 | 33:14.001 race | 29:49.002 races | -10.28% |
| Ryan King | 2019 | 28:20.001 race | 25:44.003 races | -9.18% |
| Sanjay Ravindran | 2023 | 27:02.001 race | 24:36.001 race | -9.00% |
| Katie Riley | 2019 | 30:57.001 race | 28:11.001 race | -8.94% |
| Grigory Menshikov | 2019 | 28:11.001 race | 25:52.003 races | -8.22% |
| Joshua White | 2021 | 24:52.001 race | 22:51.001 race | -8.11% |
| Gavin Shan | 2019 | 26:23.001 race | 24:16.001 race | -8.02% |
| Kayla Clifford | 2019 | 28:46.001 race | 26:44.001 race | -7.07% |
| Dung Pham | 2019 | 26:07.001 race | 24:17.001 race | -7.02% |
| Harper Weng | 2019 | 34:31.001 race | 32:06.001 race | -7.00% |
| Teddy Hwang | 2019 | 34:45.001 race | 32:23.002 races | -6.81% |
| Nathalie Pierpont | 2021 | 26:47.001 race | 24:58.001 race | -6.78% |
| Brandon Christ | 2021 | 19:52.001 race | 18:37.001 race | -6.29% |
| Keira McNeil | 2023 | 35:16.001 race | 33:07.001 race | -6.10% |
| Anne Le Gassick | 2019 | 32:25.001 race | 30:28.001 race | -6.02% |
| Owen Wang | 2019 | 23:05.001 race | 21:42.001 race | -5.99% |
| Richard Shum | 2019 | 22:49.001 race | 21:28.001 race | -5.92% |
| Matthew Smith | 2021 | 21:46.001 race | 20:35.001 race | -5.44% |
| Alyssa McGuirl | 2022 | 31:40.001 race | 30:05.001 race | -5.00% |
| Jameso Flaherty-Clapham | 2022 | 30:42.001 race | 29:13.001 race | -4.83% |
| Daichi Seki | 2019 | 22:11.001 race | 21:07.001 race | -4.81% |
| Hopie Lovell | 2019 | 29:42.001 race | 28:19.001 race | -4.66% |
| Nathalie Westpfahl | 2021 | 25:03.001 race | 23:53.001 race | -4.66% |
| Nathan Anderson | 2019 | 19:40.001 race | 18:46.001 race | -4.58% |
| Maggie Xu | 2019 | 32:15.001 race | 30:51.001 race | -4.34% |
| Marcus Magura | 2023 | 28:07.001 race | 26:56.001 race | -4.21% |
| Quentin DeFreitas | 2023 | 25:20.001 race | 24:17.001 race | -4.14% |
| Peter Iascone | 2019 | 23:38.001 race | 22:40.001 race | -4.09% |
| Matt Simon | 2021 | 22:27.001 race | 21:32.001 race | -4.08% |
| Anthony Marcucci | 2025 | 24:09.001 race | 23:12.001 race | -3.93% |
| Lauren Torres-Rivera | 2019 | 34:54.001 race | 33:32.001 race | -3.92% |
| Theodore Dowd | 2022 | 24:46.001 race | 23:48.001 race | -3.90% |
| Brooke Georges | 2021 | 30:26.001 race | 29:15.001 race | -3.89% |
| Selina Liu | 2019 | 31:07.001 race | 29:56.003 races | -3.80% |
| Mahiro Yamikawa | 2019 | 19:03.001 race | 18:20.001 race | -3.76% |
| Sam Poulin | 2019 | 20:45.001 race | 20:01.001 race | -3.53% |
| Jana Choe | 2019 | 36:25.001 race | 35:09.003 races | -3.48% |
| Benzo Zhou | 2019 | 22:35.001 race | 21:48.002 races | -3.47% |
| Ethan Paek | 2019 | 20:05.001 race | 19:25.001 race | -3.32% |
| Alexa Meekins | 2022 | 31:04.001 race | 30:04.001 race | -3.22% |
| Patrick Riley | 2019 | 25:06.001 race | 24:18.001 race | -3.19% |
| J. Anderson-Song | 2024 | 20:35.001 race | 19:56.002 races | -3.16% |
| Skylar Bedard | 2023 | 23:48.001 race | 23:03.003 races | -3.15% |
| Thompson Zhou | 2019 | 24:11.001 race | 23:26.001 race | -3.10% |
| Brady Preneta | 2024 | 21:48.001 race | 21:09.003 races | -2.98% |
| Ing Thongchai | 2019 | 31:46.001 race | 30:50.001 race | -2.94% |
| John Brice | 2022 | 22:26.001 race | 21:48.001 race | -2.82% |
| Mei-Ling Bielagus | 2023 | 22:40.001 race | 22:02.002 races | -2.79% |
| Bobby Ferguson | 2025 | 23:44.001 race | 23:05.001 race | -2.74% |
| Brooke Hansen | 2022 | 23:23.001 race | 22:45.001 race | -2.71% |
| Juliana Lynch | 2023 | 29:51.001 race | 29:03.001 race | -2.68% |
| Andrew Mottur | 2019 | 18:24.001 race | 17:55.001 race | -2.63% |
| Lakshmi Bogelli | 2019 | 36:31.001 race | 35:36.002 races | -2.51% |
| Abdel Barakat | 2019 | 20:12.001 race | 19:42.001 race | -2.48% |
| Alexa Adams | 2022 | 25:17.001 race | 24:41.001 race | -2.37% |
| John Joyce | 2025 | 16:56.001 race | 16:32.001 race | -2.36% |
| Brandon Christ | 2019 | 19:51.001 race | 19:24.001 race | -2.27% |
| Alex Hass | 2019 | 21:14.001 race | 20:47.002 races | -2.12% |
| Arjun Girish | 2019 | 21:49.001 race | 21:23.001 race | -1.99% |
| Sophia Lando | 2019 | 25:51.001 race | 25:21.001 race | -1.93% |
| Noah Qiu | 2024 | 25:08.001 race | 24:40.003 races | -1.86% |
| Jake Devries | 2022 | 23:27.001 race | 23:01.001 race | -1.85% |
| Lorenzo Johnson | 2023 | 20:12.001 race | 19:50.001 race | -1.82% |
| Heng Leong | 2023 | 22:32.001 race | 22:10.001 race | -1.63% |
| Mei-Ling Bielagus | 2024 | 22:21.001 race | 22:00.002 races | -1.57% |
| Leo Lin | 2019 | 23:45.001 race | 23:23.003 races | -1.54% |
| Bruin Brayshaw | 2023 | 25:53.001 race | 25:30.002 races | -1.48% |
| Aidan Berger | 2021 | 20:17.001 race | 20:00.001 race | -1.40% |
| Arav Kochhar | 2024 | 24:44.001 race | 24:25.003 races | -1.28% |
| Mairin Anderson | 2023 | 29:02.001 race | 28:42.001 race | -1.15% |
| Justin Jang | 2023 | 20:01.001 race | 19:48.001 race | -1.08% |
| Joshua White | 2023 | 24:34.001 race | 24:20.001 race | -0.95% |
| Quinn Anderson-Song | 2019 | 20:15.001 race | 20:04.003 races | -0.91% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 2024 | 20:25.001 race | 20:14.002 races | -0.90% |
| Hollen Knoell | 2019 | 26:31.001 race | 26:17.003 races | -0.88% |
| Samson Oblak | 2023 | 22:51.001 race | 22:39.001 race | -0.88% |
| Olivia Crisafi | 2019 | 29:11.001 race | 28:56.003 races | -0.86% |
| Heng Leong | 2022 | 22:22.001 race | 22:11.001 race | -0.82% |
| Ross Stewart | 2019 | 18:36.001 race | 18:27.001 race | -0.81% |
| Ryan Noreke | 2022 | 21:04.001 race | 20:54.001 race | -0.79% |
| Braeden Moitoso | 2021 | 20:18.001 race | 20:09.001 race | -0.74% |
| Eben Dooling | 2023 | 22:09.001 race | 22:00.001 race | -0.68% |
| Martin Beaumont-Mill | 2024 | 21:28.001 race | 21:21.003 races | -0.54% |
| Sebastian Culleton | 2025 | 18:34.001 race | 18:28.001 race | -0.54% |
| Zach Lonberg | 2019 | 26:32.001 race | 26:24.003 races | -0.50% |
| Talia Jachimowicz | 2019 | 26:35.001 race | 26:28.003 races | -0.44% |
| Chris Davis | 2019 | 19:20.001 race | 19:15.001 race | -0.43% |
| Armaun Dehpanah | 2023 | 23:07.001 race | 23:02.001 race | -0.36% |
| Katelyn Pereira | 2023 | 24:21.001 race | 24:16.003 races | -0.34% |
| Natalie Kloman | 2022 | 28:44.001 race | 28:41.001 race | -0.17% |
| Joseph Koh | 2025 | 20:39.001 race | 20:37.001 race | -0.16% |
| Lucy McCormick | 2024 | 23:39.001 race | 23:38.003 races | -0.07% |
| Lucy Rainer | 2019 | 28:36.001 race | 28:35.002 races | -0.06% |
| Isabelle Stewart | 2019 | 28:10.001 race | 28:11.003 races | +0.06% |
| Wes Gray | 2024 | 25:07.001 race | 25:08.003 races | +0.07% |
| Ella McDonald | 2023 | 23:30.001 race | 23:31.003 races | +0.07% |
| Alex Hallstrom | 2019 | 22:32.001 race | 22:33.003 races | +0.07% |
| Thomas Ireland | 2024 | 20:03.001 race | 20:05.003 races | +0.17% |
| Peter Gnazzo | 2023 | 25:20.001 race | 25:24.001 race | +0.26% |
| DK Rhee | 2024 | 30:28.001 race | 30:33.003 races | +0.27% |
| Jerry Zhang | 2023 | 32:52.001 race | 32:59.002 races | +0.35% |
| Elena Gordon | 2024 | 25:01.001 race | 25:09.003 races | +0.53% |
| Dylan Uttam | 2024 | 20:56.001 race | 21:03.003 races | +0.56% |
| Megan Corry | 2022 | 27:40.001 race | 27:50.001 race | +0.60% |
| Andrew Young | 2022 | 21:35.001 race | 21:44.001 race | +0.69% |
| Max Rochford | 2024 | 23:55.001 race | 24:07.003 races | +0.84% |
| Rider Smith-Pallotta | 2023 | 23:50.001 race | 24:02.002 races | +0.84% |
| Valentina Joseph | 2022 | 29:14.001 race | 29:29.001 race | +0.86% |
| Noah Divon | 2024 | 24:08.001 race | 24:21.001 race | +0.90% |
| Quinn Taylor | 2023 | 29:30.001 race | 29:46.001 race | +0.90% |
| Angelina Ha | 2023 | 25:20.001 race | 25:34.001 race | +0.92% |
| Forrester Clark | 2023 | 18:16.001 race | 18:27.001 race | +1.00% |
| Jack Halloran | 2025 | 18:14.001 race | 18:25.001 race | +1.01% |
| Brendan Brosnan | 2022 | 20:48.001 race | 21:01.001 race | +1.04% |
| Cara Nugent | 2019 | 24:59.001 race | 25:15.001 race | +1.07% |
| Aleah Ghiasuddin | 2019 | 29:12.001 race | 29:31.002 races | +1.08% |
| Cole Zaleski | 2019 | 21:27.001 race | 21:41.001 race | +1.09% |
| Ethan Sweeney | 2019 | 19:16.001 race | 19:30.001 race | +1.21% |
| Alexander Colangelo | 2023 | 17:49.001 race | 18:02.001 race | +1.22% |
| Kiet Nguyen | 2019 | 24:55.001 race | 25:14.001 race | +1.27% |
| Lily Makepeace | 2024 | 24:23.001 race | 24:42.001 race | +1.30% |
| Campbell Strong | 2024 | 24:44.001 race | 25:04.001 race | +1.35% |
| Sophie Kelly | 2023 | 24:24.001 race | 24:44.003 races | +1.37% |
| Forrest Feist | 2019 | 29:48.001 race | 30:13.001 race | +1.40% |
| Sebastian Briggs | 2024 | 22:11.001 race | 22:30.001 race | +1.43% |
| Katelyn Pereira | 2024 | 24:45.001 race | 25:07.003 races | +1.48% |
| Rileigh Murphy-Morris | 2022 | 25:32.001 race | 25:57.001 race | +1.63% |
| Jillian Bergeron | 2024 | 19:54.001 race | 20:14.003 races | +1.68% |
| Pepper Taylor | 2023 | 28:32.001 race | 29:02.001 race | +1.75% |
| Henry Buckley-Jones | 2022 | 17:54.001 race | 18:13.001 race | +1.77% |
| Josh Taylor | 2023 | 21:40.001 race | 22:03.003 races | +1.77% |
| Lily Davis | 2024 | 22:43.001 race | 23:08.001 race | +1.83% |
| Enock Musyoka | 2019 | 17:03.001 race | 17:22.001 race | +1.86% |
| Kylie Bogar | 2022 | 28:48.001 race | 29:21.001 race | +1.91% |
| Ella McDonald | 2024 | 23:14.001 race | 23:41.003 races | +1.94% |
| Arden Sartori | 2023 | 24:56.001 race | 25:25.001 race | +1.94% |
| Michael Wu | 2019 | 24:20.001 race | 24:49.001 race | +1.99% |
| Martin Beaumont-Mill | 2023 | 22:26.001 race | 22:53.003 races | +2.01% |
| Izzy Cheney | 2019 | 23:28.001 race | 23:57.001 race | +2.06% |
| Evan Schneider | 2022 | 21:54.001 race | 22:22.001 race | +2.13% |
| Peter Abenante | 2024 | 20:35.001 race | 21:02.003 races | +2.19% |
| Amaro Castillo | 2024 | 17:52.001 race | 18:16.001 race | +2.24% |
| Eric Berard | 2019 | 19:01.001 race | 19:27.003 races | +2.28% |
| Nicolas Huaco | 2024 | 17:59.001 race | 18:24.001 race | +2.32% |
| Ashley Robertson | 2023 | 28:26.001 race | 29:07.001 race | +2.40% |
| Emily Geist | 2023 | 28:39.001 race | 29:21.003 races | +2.44% |
| Max Rochford | 2023 | 23:43.001 race | 24:18.003 races | +2.46% |
| Joshua Rocha | 2019 | 21:22.001 race | 21:54.001 race | +2.50% |
| Alex Luehine | 2023 | 29:06.001 race | 29:50.001 race | +2.52% |
| Theodore (Theo) Andersen | 2023 | 28:43.001 race | 29:30.002 races | +2.73% |
| Juliana Lynch | 2022 | 27:19.001 race | 28:04.001 race | +2.75% |
| Natalie Meleo | 2024 | 25:00.001 race | 25:42.001 race | +2.80% |
| Angelina Hammerschlag | 2022 | 24:35.001 race | 25:18.001 race | +2.92% |
| Taylor Ehler | 2022 | 31:51.001 race | 32:47.001 race | +2.93% |
| Sebastian Sepulveda | 2019 | 22:35.001 race | 23:15.001 race | +2.95% |
| Breanna Kunkel | 2022 | 22:54.001 race | 23:35.001 race | +2.98% |
| Emily Bunn | 2022 | 22:31.001 race | 23:13.001 race | +3.11% |
| Eli Helzberg | 2022 | 21:38.001 race | 22:19.001 race | +3.16% |
| Alex Young | 2022 | 19:29.001 race | 20:06.001 race | +3.17% |
| Charles Jackivicz | 2024 | 18:21.001 race | 18:56.001 race | +3.18% |
| Austin Corbett | 2023 | 18:11.001 race | 18:47.003 races | +3.30% |
| Samuel Lyons | 2022 | 18:11.001 race | 18:47.001 race | +3.30% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2022 | 22:26.001 race | 23:11.001 race | +3.34% |
| Grant Reagan-Loomis | 2019 | 22:00.001 race | 22:45.001 race | +3.41% |
| Janciel Martinez | 2023 | 23:40.001 race | 24:29.003 races | +3.45% |
| Josh Taylor | 2024 | 21:33.001 race | 22:19.003 races | +3.56% |
| Reagan Whitaker | 2022 | 24:59.001 race | 25:53.001 race | +3.60% |
| Sophia Mikelinich | 2023 | 21:13.001 race | 22:01.003 races | +3.77% |
| Matthew Smith | 2023 | 22:11.001 race | 23:03.001 race | +3.91% |
| Tatum Glynn | 2023 | 25:10.001 race | 26:09.001 race | +3.91% |
| Peter Abenante | 2023 | 20:21.001 race | 21:09.003 races | +3.93% |
| Eric Liu | 2024 | 20:27.001 race | 21:16.001 race | +3.99% |
| Justin Jang | 2022 | 19:34.001 race | 20:21.001 race | +4.00% |
| Elizabeth Lapides | 2022 | 24:53.001 race | 25:53.001 race | +4.02% |
| Kenzie Murphy | 2022 | 21:41.001 race | 22:34.001 race | +4.07% |
| Marina Joseph | 2022 | 28:49.001 race | 30:00.001 race | +4.11% |
| Anya Carroll | 2022 | 27:31.001 race | 28:39.001 race | +4.12% |
| Tyler Cornetta | 2022 | 21:12.001 race | 22:05.001 race | +4.17% |
| Lucas Miller | 2023 | 19:18.001 race | 20:07.001 race | +4.23% |
| Cole Bourgeois | 2019 | 21:04.001 race | 21:59.002 races | +4.35% |
| Oliver Carswell | 2019 | 22:11.001 race | 23:09.001 race | +4.36% |
| Phoebe Cogan | 2023 | 21:59.001 race | 23:00.001 race | +4.62% |
| Mark Ryan | 2019 | 17:13.001 race | 18:01.001 race | +4.65% |
| Alex Young | 2023 | 18:20.001 race | 19:12.001 race | +4.73% |
| Adyson Duval | 2023 | 24:55.001 race | 26:07.001 race | +4.82% |
| Andrew Correia | 2019 | 22:03.001 race | 23:09.001 race | +4.99% |
| Anthony Coston | 2023 | 22:43.001 race | 23:51.001 race | +4.99% |
| Eli Helzberg | 2019 | 21:56.001 race | 23:04.001 race | +5.17% |
| Tessa Borgatti | 2023 | 23:09.001 race | 24:21.002 races | +5.18% |
| Jason Minicozzi | 2022 | 19:33.001 race | 20:34.001 race | +5.20% |
| Charlie Gavin | 2022 | 18:54.001 race | 19:54.001 race | +5.29% |
| Rinto Nakazawa | 2023 | 24:44.001 race | 26:04.001 race | +5.39% |
| Brian Zheng | 2023 | 20:16.001 race | 21:23.001 race | +5.51% |
| Madeline Pike | 2022 | 23:53.001 race | 25:12.001 race | +5.51% |
| Mairin Anderson | 2022 | 25:37.001 race | 27:02.001 race | +5.53% |
| Jason Minicozzi | 2023 | 19:04.001 race | 20:08.001 race | +5.59% |
| Max Meyerhardt | 2019 | 19:35.001 race | 20:43.001 race | +5.79% |
| Cam Dailey | 2019 | 21:27.001 race | 22:43.001 race | +5.91% |
| Jason Li | 2024 | 24:09.001 race | 25:35.003 races | +5.94% |
| Aditya Shrivastava | 2023 | 20:29.001 race | 21:42.002 races | +5.94% |
| Sam Blank | 2022 | 21:54.001 race | 23:13.001 race | +6.01% |
| Leo Charlamb | 2023 | 27:40.001 race | 29:20.001 race | +6.02% |
| Katie Wipf | 2022 | 21:53.001 race | 23:14.001 race | +6.17% |
| Nicholas Reimer | 2023 | 19:00.001 race | 20:11.003 races | +6.23% |
| Aidan Pearsall | 2024 | 17:03.001 race | 18:07.001 race | +6.26% |
| Maggie Crowley | 2022 | 22:54.001 race | 24:21.001 race | +6.33% |
| Reagan Whitaker | 2023 | 24:57.001 race | 26:34.001 race | +6.48% |
| Conor Mannion | 2022 | 22:10.001 race | 23:37.001 race | +6.54% |
| Austin Corbett | 2024 | 18:26.001 race | 19:40.003 races | +6.69% |
| Kevin Yao | 2023 | 20:23.001 race | 21:45.003 races | +6.70% |
| Ava Palazzolo | 2022 | 22:56.001 race | 24:30.001 race | +6.83% |
| Calvin Smith | 2019 | 18:45.001 race | 20:02.001 race | +6.84% |
| Suma Bogelli | 2024 | 27:27.001 race | 29:21.002 races | +6.92% |
| Alison Leiva | 2023 | 31:16.001 race | 33:27.001 race | +6.98% |
| Ava Marinaro | 2023 | 29:06.001 race | 31:10.001 race | +7.10% |
| Benjamin Hebbel | 2024 | 17:03.001 race | 18:16.001 race | +7.14% |
| Allen Zheng | 2024 | 22:36.001 race | 24:14.001 race | +7.23% |
| Katalin (Kata) Clark | 2023 | 19:53.001 race | 21:21.001 race | +7.38% |
| Seif El Gazaar | 2024 | 19:10.001 race | 20:37.001 race | +7.57% |
| Grace Pilkington | 2023 | 28:56.001 race | 31:11.001 race | +7.78% |
| Cormac Anderson | 2025 | 21:18.001 race | 22:58.001 race | +7.82% |
| George Yerid | 2023 | 28:00.001 race | 30:20.001 race | +8.33% |
| Merrick Brannigan | 2024 | 22:30.001 race | 24:25.001 race | +8.52% |
| Walt Reagan-Loomis | 2019 | 21:59.001 race | 24:04.001 race | +9.48% |
| Dhruva Tailam | 2023 | 24:29.001 race | 26:55.001 race | +9.94% |
| Jason Zhu | 2023 | 26:08.001 race | 29:03.002 races | +11.16% |
| Thaxton Frey | 2024 | 21:05.001 race | 23:27.001 race | +11.23% |
| Andrew Young | 2019 | 26:20.001 race | 29:28.001 race | +11.90% |
| Amanda Gary | 2019 | 25:06.001 race | 28:06.001 race | +11.95% |
| Elizabeth Lapides | 2023 | 24:54.001 race | 27:59.001 race | +12.38% |
| Samson Nwobi | 2023 | 30:43.001 race | 35:18.001 race | +14.92% |
| Luke Peabody | 2024 | 19:46.001 race | 22:47.001 race | +15.26% |
| Kamran Bradley | 2023 | 23:07.001 race | 27:07.001 race | +17.30% |