Pairwise course analysis
St. Mark's School Championship Coursevs.NMH Championship Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
These courses run about even
-0.20%
Roughly 2.3 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
87
Strong evidence
Median difference
-0.22%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-0.20%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.05%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
NMH Championship Course fasterEvenNMH Championship Course slower
Confidence interval
-0.73% to +0.44%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Mark's School Championship Course | NMH Championship Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Fan | 2019 | 21:58.002 races | 19:55.001 race | -9.33% |
| Stephen Warming | 2019 | 21:52.002 races | 20:27.001 race | -6.48% |
| Abraham Tolkoff | 2019 | 20:48.002 races | 19:38.001 race | -5.61% |
| Ben Croft | 2019 | 19:54.005 races | 18:58.001 race | -4.69% |
| Charles Donahue | 2019 | 19:23.002 races | 18:31.001 race | -4.47% |
| Jack Sullivan | 2019 | 20:59.002 races | 20:03.001 race | -4.45% |
| Will Osborne | 2019 | 20:53.005 races | 20:04.001 race | -3.91% |
| Will Ryckman | 2019 | 21:44.005 races | 20:55.001 race | -3.76% |
| Gabriel Klug | 2019 | 22:02.002 races | 21:13.001 race | -3.71% |
| John Curtin | 2019 | 21:18.001 race | 20:33.001 race | -3.52% |
| Mateo MacRi | 2019 | 19:33.005 races | 19:03.001 race | -2.56% |
| Julia Torrey | 2019 | 22:49.001 race | 22:14.001 race | -2.56% |
| Daniel Bittner | 2019 | 21:31.002 races | 20:59.001 race | -2.48% |
| James Donahue | 2019 | 17:05.002 races | 16:40.001 race | -2.44% |
| Anna Hamblet | 2019 | 24:52.001 race | 24:21.001 race | -2.08% |
| Harvey Rupp | 2019 | 21:26.002 races | 21:01.001 race | -1.94% |
| Ryan Wei | 2019 | 18:51.002 races | 18:30.001 race | -1.86% |
| Howard Huang | 2019 | 20:47.002 races | 20:26.001 race | -1.68% |
| Evan Zhang | 2019 | 21:11.002 races | 20:50.001 race | -1.65% |
| Aidan McGaugh | 2019 | 18:19.002 races | 18:02.001 race | -1.55% |
| Natalie Williamson | 2019 | 22:40.001 race | 22:19.001 race | -1.54% |
| Nick Haugen | 2019 | 18:28.005 races | 18:11.001 race | -1.53% |
| Elizabeth Waterfall | 2019 | 24:43.001 race | 24:21.001 race | -1.48% |
| Jack Griffin | 2019 | 19:08.005 races | 18:51.001 race | -1.48% |
| Ben Pestana | 2019 | 21:14.003 races | 20:56.001 race | -1.41% |
| Samantha Cody | 2019 | 24:42.001 race | 24:22.001 race | -1.35% |
| Luke Hogan | 2019 | 20:11.002 races | 19:55.001 race | -1.32% |
| Adytia Mynampaty | 2019 | 17:31.005 races | 17:19.001 race | -1.14% |
| Devon Tyrie | 2019 | 24:25.001 race | 24:09.001 race | -1.09% |
| Victor Xu | 2019 | 21:03.002 races | 20:50.001 race | -1.03% |
| Seb Park | 2019 | 21:07.002 races | 20:54.001 race | -1.03% |
| Kartik Donepudi | 2019 | 21:36.004 races | 21:23.001 race | -1.00% |
| Charles Mullaney | 2019 | 20:13.001 race | 20:01.001 race | -0.99% |
| Zach Neri | 2019 | 19:36.002 races | 19:25.001 race | -0.94% |
| Alex Rodriguez | 2019 | 20:30.002 races | 20:20.001 race | -0.81% |
| Austin Hunt | 2019 | 20:00.005 races | 19:51.001 race | -0.75% |
| Claire Mao | 2019 | 24:21.001 race | 24:11.001 race | -0.68% |
| Yaman Habip | 2019 | 20:36.002 races | 20:28.001 race | -0.65% |
| Nick Sparrow | 2019 | 18:54.005 races | 18:47.001 race | -0.62% |
| Thomas Strong | 2019 | 20:19.002 races | 20:12.001 race | -0.57% |
| Ben Bundy | 2019 | 20:15.005 races | 20:09.001 race | -0.49% |
| Victoria Fawcett | 2019 | 20:43.001 race | 20:40.001 race | -0.24% |
| Nicholas Hebard | 2019 | 22:08.002 races | 22:05.001 race | -0.23% |
| Caroline Finnerty | 2019 | 23:11.001 race | 23:08.001 race | -0.22% |
| Christiaan Eikeboom | 2019 | 19:02.002 races | 19:01.001 race | -0.09% |
| John Weldon | 2019 | 19:04.002 races | 19:03.001 race | -0.09% |
| Thomas Romney | 2019 | 19:12.001 race | 19:11.001 race | -0.09% |
| Evita Thadhani | 2019 | 22:52.001 race | 22:52.001 race | 0.00% |
| Katie Armstrong | 2019 | 25:00.001 race | 25:03.001 race | +0.20% |
| Grace Hayward | 2019 | 21:02.001 race | 21:05.001 race | +0.24% |
| James Lammert | 2019 | 18:29.004 races | 18:32.001 race | +0.27% |
| Aj Strang | 2019 | 17:06.002 races | 17:10.001 race | +0.39% |
| Sreetej Digumarthi | 2019 | 20:24.002 races | 20:29.001 race | +0.41% |
| Bennett Jones | 2019 | 19:57.005 races | 20:02.001 race | +0.42% |
| Lily Roche Vanoot | 2019 | 24:47.001 race | 24:55.001 race | +0.54% |
| Ellie Mraz | 2019 | 20:53.001 race | 21:00.001 race | +0.56% |
| Sophie Majernik | 2019 | 24:46.001 race | 24:56.001 race | +0.67% |
| Max Litvak | 2019 | 18:37.002 races | 18:45.001 race | +0.72% |
| Mari Capone | 2019 | 24:39.001 race | 24:53.001 race | +0.95% |
| Tyler Forg | 2019 | 20:27.002 races | 20:39.001 race | +0.98% |
| Margo Becker | 2019 | 20:13.002 races | 20:25.001 race | +0.99% |
| Joshua Bergers | 2019 | 16:34.005 races | 16:45.001 race | +1.11% |
| Jane Saltzman | 2019 | 24:35.001 race | 24:53.001 race | +1.22% |
| Macy Lindberg | 2019 | 24:53.001 race | 25:14.001 race | +1.41% |
| Jehan Boer | 2019 | 19:00.002 races | 19:17.001 race | +1.49% |
| Emily Orscheln | 2019 | 21:05.001 race | 21:24.001 race | +1.50% |
| Kajsa Harrington | 2019 | 23:37.001 race | 23:59.001 race | +1.55% |
| Tara O'Malley | 2019 | 23:07.001 race | 23:29.001 race | +1.59% |
| Gianluca Foschi Walko | 2019 | 20:40.001 race | 21:00.001 race | +1.61% |
| Elizabeth Strang | 2019 | 25:42.001 race | 26:10.001 race | +1.82% |
| Celia Cheng | 2019 | 20:41.001 race | 21:04.001 race | +1.85% |
| Alex Janower | 2019 | 24:32.001 race | 25:02.001 race | +2.04% |
| Tony Wei | 2019 | 21:53.005 races | 22:22.001 race | +2.21% |
| Ella Brown | 2019 | 25:07.001 race | 25:41.001 race | +2.26% |
| Catherine Anderson | 2019 | 25:42.001 race | 26:17.001 race | +2.27% |
| Lindsay Saunders | 2019 | 24:52.001 race | 25:27.001 race | +2.35% |
| Anya Cheng | 2019 | 20:57.001 race | 21:27.001 race | +2.39% |
| Lila Miller | 2019 | 23:52.001 race | 24:27.001 race | +2.44% |
| Sophia Lowry | 2019 | 24:49.001 race | 25:28.001 race | +2.62% |
| Aston Chan | 2019 | 19:11.002 races | 19:49.001 race | +3.30% |
| Charlotte Torrey | 2019 | 27:04.001 race | 28:18.001 race | +4.56% |
| Molly Epker | 2019 | 21:32.001 race | 22:32.001 race | +4.64% |
| Constance Legrand | 2019 | 24:44.001 race | 26:01.001 race | +5.19% |
| Blake Gattuso | 2019 | 18:01.004 races | 18:58.001 race | +5.27% |
| Christian Westphal | 2019 | 20:04.002 races | 21:11.001 race | +5.56% |
| Emma Zuccotti | 2019 | 28:15.001 race | 29:59.001 race | +6.14% |
| Pedro Mateo | 2019 | 19:43.002 races | 21:24.001 race | +8.54% |