Pairwise course analysis
Washington Park 5K Coursevs.RL 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
RL 5K Course runs slower
+5.72%
Roughly 1:09 slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
201
Deep evidence
Median difference
+5.85%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+5.72%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+6.05%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
RL 5K Course fasterEvenRL 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
+4.60% to +5.93%
Scale shown
-6% to +6%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Washington Park 5K Course | RL 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akshay Kumar | 2023 | 29:56.001 race | 27:19.001 race | -8.74% |
| Peyton Lubeck | 2023 | 22:21.001 race | 20:34.001 race | -7.98% |
| Avish Kumar | 2024 | 27:08.001 race | 25:09.002 races | -7.31% |
| Oliver Colbert | 2023 | 25:25.001 race | 23:55.001 race | -5.90% |
| Colleen Leary | 2021 | 25:29.001 race | 24:01.001 race | -5.76% |
| Temi Martins-Desumu | 2024 | 30:06.001 race | 28:40.002 races | -4.76% |
| Kate Pickford | 2023 | 22:40.001 race | 21:42.001 race | -4.26% |
| Kofi Fordjour | 2021 | 17:57.001 race | 17:25.003 races | -2.97% |
| Michael Allen | 2022 | 23:01.501 race | 22:22.002 races | -2.86% |
| Liam Walsh | 2024 | 19:05.001 race | 18:36.002 races | -2.53% |
| Lincoln Hyatt | 2023 | 20:25.001 race | 19:54.002 races | -2.53% |
| Tom Pogorelec | 2023 | 23:10.001 race | 22:37.002 races | -2.37% |
| Grayson Lee | 2023 | 22:21.001 race | 21:53.001 race | -2.09% |
| Andrew Correia | 2021 | 21:11.001 race | 20:47.001 race | -1.89% |
| Darian Estrada | 2023 | 27:40.001 race | 27:12.001 race | -1.69% |
| Maddie Stearns | 2021 | 23:11.001 race | 22:53.001 race | -1.29% |
| Grant Vensel | 2023 | 21:16.001 race | 21:00.001 race | -1.25% |
| James Kerr | 2023 | 18:34.001 race | 18:21.004 races | -1.17% |
| Max Kesselheim | 2023 | 21:03.001 race | 20:50.003 races | -1.03% |
| Levi Harrison | 2022 | 18:36.401 race | 18:26.003 races | -0.93% |
| Somers Estwanik | 2023 | 22:39.001 race | 22:29.001 race | -0.74% |
| Mia McLean | 2021 | 23:13.001 race | 23:07.001 race | -0.43% |
| Alex Young | 2021 | 21:39.001 race | 21:34.001 race | -0.38% |
| Katie Wipf | 2021 | 22:23.001 race | 22:20.001 race | -0.22% |
| John (Jack) Tompros | 2022 | 24:04.001 race | 24:04.003 races | 0.00% |
| David Comander | 2024 | 22:50.001 race | 22:51.002 races | +0.07% |
| Calvin Reid | 2023 | 21:22.001 race | 21:25.003 races | +0.23% |
| Gabe Cooper | 2024 | 20:35.001 race | 20:38.001 race | +0.24% |
| Henry Wang | 2023 | 21:16.001 race | 21:20.001 race | +0.31% |
| David Moon | 2024 | 23:58.001 race | 24:08.001 race | +0.70% |
| Akshay Kumar | 2022 | 20:30.001 race | 20:40.003 races | +0.81% |
| Van Crocker | 2023 | 21:09.001 race | 21:21.001 race | +0.95% |
| Henry Buckley-Jones | 2021 | 19:20.001 race | 19:31.001 race | +0.95% |
| Calvin Reid | 2022 | 23:13.401 race | 23:27.003 races | +0.98% |
| Eloise Daniello | 2021 | 23:41.001 race | 23:55.001 race | +0.99% |
| Eric Zhu | 2023 | 20:00.001 race | 20:12.004 races | +1.00% |
| Mae Lial | 2023 | 23:50.001 race | 24:06.001 race | +1.12% |
| Mathias Why | 2022 | 20:37.801 race | 20:55.003 races | +1.39% |
| Michael Thomas | 2022 | 18:38.301 race | 18:55.002 races | +1.49% |
| Megan Corry | 2021 | 23:19.001 race | 23:40.001 race | +1.50% |
| Brendan Reichard | 2024 | 21:37.001 race | 22:01.002 races | +1.85% |
| Eric Diop | 2021 | 18:07.001 race | 18:28.003 races | +1.93% |
| Idrissa Fall | 2024 | 22:23.001 race | 22:51.001 race | +2.08% |
| Quinn Thomson | 2022 | 23:33.501 race | 24:04.003 races | +2.16% |
| Andrew Young | 2021 | 23:23.001 race | 23:54.001 race | +2.21% |
| James McCarron III | 2023 | 17:03.001 race | 17:26.001 race | +2.25% |
| Brooke Hansen | 2021 | 22:58.001 race | 23:29.001 race | +2.25% |
| Thomas Reichard | 2021 | 19:16.001 race | 19:43.003 races | +2.34% |
| Eric Archerman | 2023 | 19:15.001 race | 19:42.003 races | +2.34% |
| Chloe Clifford | 2021 | 21:39.001 race | 22:10.001 race | +2.39% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2021 | 23:02.001 race | 23:36.001 race | +2.46% |
| Austin Reid | 2023 | 22:18.001 race | 22:51.002 races | +2.47% |
| Fin Reichard | 2024 | 19:49.001 race | 20:20.001 race | +2.61% |
| Ezra Klauber | 2023 | 17:14.001 race | 17:41.004 races | +2.61% |
| Nathan Ma | 2024 | 24:35.001 race | 25:14.001 race | +2.64% |
| Eli Helzberg | 2021 | 23:25.001 race | 24:03.001 race | +2.70% |
| Brendan Reichard | 2022 | 21:35.901 race | 22:11.002 races | +2.71% |
| Justin Jang | 2021 | 21:50.001 race | 22:26.001 race | +2.75% |
| Tyler Cornetta | 2021 | 21:05.001 race | 21:40.001 race | +2.77% |
| Noah Corso | 2024 | 22:20.001 race | 22:58.001 race | +2.84% |
| Scarlett Hawkins | 2024 | 19:57.001 race | 20:31.001 race | +2.84% |
| Riley Eyman | 2023 | 20:55.001 race | 21:31.001 race | +2.87% |
| Eric Diop | 2022 | 17:59.901 race | 18:31.002 races | +2.88% |
| John (Jake) Popeo | 2021 | 20:42.001 race | 21:18.003 races | +2.90% |
| Kylee Bolding | 2023 | 24:46.001 race | 25:30.001 race | +2.96% |
| Akhilsai Damera | 2022 | 19:44.001 race | 20:20.002 races | +3.04% |
| Eric Zhang | 2023 | 21:54.001 race | 22:34.001 race | +3.04% |
| John (Jake) Popeo | 2023 | 19:22.001 race | 19:58.003 races | +3.10% |
| Akhilsai Damera | 2023 | 20:13.001 race | 20:51.003 races | +3.13% |
| Richard Federico | 2023 | 17:29.001 race | 18:03.004 races | +3.24% |
| Jacob Snell | 2023 | 19:32.001 race | 20:12.001 race | +3.41% |
| Kofi Fordjour | 2022 | 17:08.801 race | 17:44.003 races | +3.42% |
| Eliot Saad | 2024 | 19:17.001 race | 19:57.001 race | +3.46% |
| Vivian Cain-Weingram | 2024 | 21:37.001 race | 22:22.001 race | +3.47% |
| Emily Williams | 2021 | 25:24.001 race | 26:17.001 race | +3.48% |
| Andreas Bai | 2024 | 23:22.001 race | 24:12.001 race | +3.57% |
| Ryan Growney | 2023 | 19:32.001 race | 20:14.001 race | +3.58% |
| Lincoln Hyatt | 2024 | 17:45.001 race | 18:24.002 races | +3.66% |
| Benjamin Koper | 2019 | 20:49.001 race | 21:35.001 race | +3.68% |
| Liam Walsh | 2023 | 17:37.001 race | 18:16.004 races | +3.69% |
| Elsbeth Kasparian | 2024 | 28:38.001 race | 29:42.001 race | +3.73% |
| Peter Duhamel | 2023 | 18:58.001 race | 19:42.001 race | +3.87% |
| Ally Gilbert | 2019 | 26:08.001 race | 27:09.001 race | +3.89% |
| David (Hershie) Liebowitz | 2021 | 21:49.001 race | 22:45.002 races | +4.28% |
| Ezra Klauber | 2022 | 18:46.101 race | 19:35.004 races | +4.34% |
| Colin Bradley | 2023 | 20:47.001 race | 21:43.003 races | +4.49% |
| Armando Walters | 2019 | 19:51.001 race | 20:46.002 races | +4.62% |
| Eric Diop | 2023 | 17:40.001 race | 18:29.004 races | +4.62% |
| Oliver Colbert | 2024 | 20:49.001 race | 21:49.002 races | +4.80% |
| Naomi Hammerschlag | 2024 | 21:45.001 race | 22:48.001 race | +4.83% |
| Philip Holland | 2025 | 18:20.001 race | 19:16.001 race | +5.09% |
| Owen Richer | 2023 | 18:54.001 race | 19:52.001 race | +5.11% |
| Steven Zhang | 2023 | 18:45.001 race | 19:43.001 race | +5.16% |
| Mark Henshon | 2021 | 17:22.001 race | 18:16.003 races | +5.18% |
| Paul Tompros | 2024 | 25:40.001 race | 27:00.002 races | +5.19% |
| Fin Reichard | 2023 | 20:46.002 races | 21:52.002 races | +5.30% |
| Ameer Hasan | 2024 | 24:42.001 race | 26:03.001 race | +5.47% |
| Charlie Zhang | 2024 | 20:55.001 race | 22:04.001 race | +5.50% |
| David (Hershie) Liebowitz | 2019 | 22:57.001 race | 24:15.002 races | +5.66% |
| Michael Thomas | 2021 | 18:41.001 race | 19:45.002 races | +5.71% |
| Amory Forman | 2024 | 19:39.001 race | 20:48.001 race | +5.85% |
| Keenan Billings | 2024 | 17:39.001 race | 18:41.001 race | +5.85% |
| Eric Zhu | 2022 | 18:53.601 race | 20:00.002 races | +5.86% |
| Katherine Clovis | 2023 | 26:40.001 race | 28:14.001 race | +5.87% |
| Will Cote | 2019 | 16:07.001 race | 17:06.002 races | +6.10% |
| Theo Teng | 2019 | 21:19.001 race | 22:38.002 races | +6.18% |
| Mia Fiore | 2023 | 26:41.001 race | 28:20.001 race | +6.18% |
| Emily English | 2019 | 25:01.001 race | 26:34.001 race | +6.20% |
| Michael Allen | 2021 | 21:35.001 race | 22:56.002 races | +6.25% |
| Ben Kaplan | 2024 | 23:07.001 race | 24:35.001 race | +6.34% |
| Eric Archerman | 2024 | 18:17.001 race | 19:27.002 races | +6.38% |
| Violet Zhang | 2024 | 26:31.001 race | 28:14.001 race | +6.47% |
| Viola Shepard | 2024 | 26:30.001 race | 28:13.001 race | +6.48% |
| Grace Stanton | 2019 | 23:53.001 race | 25:26.001 race | +6.49% |
| John (Jake) Popeo | 2022 | 19:10.101 race | 20:25.003 races | +6.51% |
| Mateo Garciarramos Petr | 2025 | 20:18.001 race | 21:38.001 race | +6.57% |
| Calvin Reid | 2024 | 18:11.001 race | 19:23.002 races | +6.60% |
| Maddie Stearns | 2019 | 23:54.001 race | 25:29.001 race | +6.62% |
| Austin Reid | 2024 | 20:52.001 race | 22:18.002 races | +6.87% |
| Zachary Lim | 2025 | 22:31.001 race | 24:04.001 race | +6.88% |
| David Lafond | 2019 | 25:53.001 race | 27:41.001 race | +6.95% |
| Caitlin Fitzgerald | 2021 | 23:34.001 race | 25:13.001 race | +7.00% |
| Matias Egan | 2024 | 23:32.001 race | 25:11.001 race | +7.01% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2019 | 21:06.001 race | 22:37.001 race | +7.19% |
| Zach Heaton | 2024 | 18:59.001 race | 20:21.002 races | +7.20% |
| Finley Long | 2024 | 19:17.001 race | 20:42.001 race | +7.35% |
| Akhilsai Damera | 2021 | 20:38.001 race | 22:09.002 races | +7.35% |
| Javi Werner | 2019 | 16:56.001 race | 18:11.002 races | +7.38% |
| Walker Cox | 2024 | 19:23.001 race | 20:51.001 race | +7.57% |
| Meg Dugan | 2019 | 19:49.001 race | 21:19.001 race | +7.57% |
| Alex Yin | 2019 | 21:23.001 race | 23:01.002 races | +7.64% |
| Samuel Allado | 2025 | 22:24.001 race | 24:07.001 race | +7.66% |
| Samantha Brooks | 2023 | 25:31.001 race | 27:29.001 race | +7.71% |
| Andreu Beltran | 2024 | 17:52.001 race | 19:16.001 race | +7.84% |
| Liam O'Connor | 2019 | 18:28.001 race | 19:55.002 races | +7.85% |
| Ryan Chiari | 2019 | 19:11.001 race | 20:42.001 race | +7.91% |
| Leila Blake | 2024 | 21:33.001 race | 23:16.001 race | +7.97% |
| Griffin MacDonald | 2024 | 21:32.001 race | 23:15.001 race | +7.97% |
| Diego Abadie | 2024 | 17:19.001 race | 18:42.001 race | +7.99% |
| Darian Estrada | 2022 | 24:46.001 race | 26:45.002 races | +8.01% |
| George Madison | 2019 | 16:44.001 race | 18:05.002 races | +8.07% |
| Beckett Dubovik | 2024 | 19:57.001 race | 21:34.001 race | +8.10% |
| Tommy Gaffey | 2019 | 16:26.001 race | 17:46.001 race | +8.11% |
| Daniella Hammerschlag | 2024 | 26:29.001 race | 28:39.001 race | +8.18% |
| Annie Husband | 2023 | 24:49.001 race | 26:51.001 race | +8.19% |
| Eloise Daniello | 2019 | 20:56.001 race | 22:40.001 race | +8.28% |
| John Harrington | 2019 | 18:27.001 race | 19:59.002 races | +8.31% |
| Aaron DuFrend | 2025 | 21:31.001 race | 23:20.001 race | +8.44% |
| Lilly Bradley | 2019 | 19:24.001 race | 21:04.001 race | +8.59% |
| Nick Glaeser | 2024 | 25:57.001 race | 28:11.002 races | +8.61% |
| Joshua Curhan | 2024 | 18:06.001 race | 19:40.001 race | +8.66% |
| Richard Fedrico | 2024 | 17:18.001 race | 18:49.001 race | +8.77% |
| Quinn Donovan | 2019 | 16:31.001 race | 17:58.002 races | +8.78% |
| Caitlin Hayes | 2019 | 28:26.001 race | 30:56.001 race | +8.79% |
| Alexander Messier | 2019 | 18:25.001 race | 20:03.002 races | +8.87% |
| South Fulwiler | 2023 | 25:04.001 race | 27:18.001 race | +8.91% |
| David Xiong | 2024 | 18:04.001 race | 19:41.001 race | +8.95% |
| Virginia Thompson | 2019 | 25:49.001 race | 28:08.001 race | +8.97% |
| Oliver Wyner | 2019 | 21:25.001 race | 23:21.002 races | +9.03% |
| Samantha Noonan | 2019 | 24:48.001 race | 27:03.001 race | +9.07% |
| Toby Harrison | 2024 | 18:38.001 race | 20:20.002 races | +9.12% |
| Hadley Stanton | 2019 | 24:04.001 race | 26:16.001 race | +9.14% |
| Akshay Kumar | 2021 | 19:41.001 race | 21:29.003 races | +9.14% |
| Kylie Bogar | 2019 | 26:28.001 race | 28:56.001 race | +9.32% |
| Michael Thomas | 2019 | 18:14.001 race | 19:56.001 race | +9.32% |
| Mathias Why | 2021 | 20:20.001 race | 22:14.002 races | +9.34% |
| Walt Reagan-Loomis | 2021 | 21:07.001 race | 23:07.001 race | +9.47% |
| Jonah Rothman | 2019 | 22:41.001 race | 24:51.001 race | +9.55% |
| Isaiah Raore | 2023 | 21:15.001 race | 23:17.001 race | +9.57% |
| Kevin Kerrigan | 2025 | 21:18.001 race | 23:21.001 race | +9.62% |
| Ryder Woodworth | 2025 | 19:04.001 race | 20:56.001 race | +9.79% |
| G Quealy | 2019 | 25:17.001 race | 27:47.001 race | +9.89% |
| Chase Bellamy | 2025 | 17:43.001 race | 19:29.001 race | +9.97% |
| Max Kesselheim | 2024 | 19:27.001 race | 21:26.002 races | +10.20% |
| Nolan McKenna | 2019 | 17:42.001 race | 19:31.002 races | +10.26% |
| Ezra Klauber | 2024 | 16:52.001 race | 18:36.002 races | +10.28% |
| David Sullivan | 2019 | 17:46.001 race | 19:37.002 races | +10.41% |
| Aidan Humphreys | 2019 | 19:00.001 race | 21:00.001 race | +10.53% |
| Jasper White | 2025 | 19:49.001 race | 21:58.001 race | +10.85% |
| Mark Henshon | 2019 | 16:06.001 race | 17:51.002 races | +10.87% |
| Levi Harrison | 2024 | 16:57.001 race | 18:48.002 races | +10.91% |
| Colin Bradley | 2024 | 18:39.001 race | 20:43.001 race | +11.08% |
| Grant Coldren | 2019 | 19:36.001 race | 21:49.001 race | +11.31% |
| Noah Ditzion | 2024 | 23:13.001 race | 25:53.001 race | +11.49% |
| Cameron Estrada | 2019 | 19:53.001 race | 22:12.002 races | +11.65% |
| Ann Wichern | 2019 | 25:36.001 race | 28:35.001 race | +11.65% |
| Darian Estrada | 2024 | 23:57.001 race | 26:47.002 races | +11.83% |
| Zach Heaton | 2023 | 18:36.001 race | 20:51.004 races | +12.10% |
| Noah Avram | 2024 | 21:55.001 race | 24:36.001 race | +12.24% |
| Justin Hildebrandt | 2024 | 21:11.001 race | 23:47.001 race | +12.27% |
| Thaddaeus Flatz-Ehrfeld | 2025 | 18:11.001 race | 20:28.001 race | +12.56% |
| Katie Wipf | 2019 | 21:40.001 race | 24:28.001 race | +12.92% |
| David Yu | 2025 | 22:12.001 race | 25:07.001 race | +13.14% |
| Garner Thompson | 2019 | 19:06.001 race | 21:41.001 race | +13.53% |
| Eli Kream | 2019 | 22:35.001 race | 25:50.001 race | +14.39% |
| Peilin Li | 2024 | 20:48.001 race | 23:53.001 race | +14.82% |
| Erin Farmer | 2019 | 28:10.001 race | 32:31.001 race | +15.44% |
| Gigi Gillard | 2019 | 27:41.001 race | 32:05.001 race | +15.89% |
| James Kerr | 2024 | 15:57.001 race | 18:37.002 races | +16.72% |
| Thomas Reichard | 2019 | 19:25.001 race | 22:52.002 races | +17.77% |
| Collin Graham | 2025 | 18:33.001 race | 21:55.001 race | +18.15% |