Pairwise course analysis
Washington Park 5K Coursevs.St. Paul's School 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
St. Paul's School 5K runs slower
+1.68%
Roughly 20.2 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
33
Developing evidence
Median difference
+0.44%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+1.68%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.26%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-0.12% to +1.90%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Washington Park 5K Course | St. Paul's School 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Li | 2022 | 29:06.301 race | 26:38.001 race | -8.49% |
| Michaela Ocko | 2022 | 24:13.701 race | 23:09.001 race | -4.45% |
| Kevin Farmer | 2022 | 20:13.201 race | 19:55.001 race | -1.50% |
| Jacob (Coby) Mulliken | 2022 | 19:59.101 race | 19:43.001 race | -1.34% |
| Meredith Monnich | 2022 | 23:42.201 race | 23:24.001 race | -1.28% |
| Po-Tao Hsueh | 2022 | 21:40.601 race | 21:25.001 race | -1.20% |
| Jason Louie | 2022 | 19:57.701 race | 19:44.001 race | -1.14% |
| Isabelle Ocko | 2022 | 24:21.501 race | 24:12.001 race | -0.65% |
| Samuel Degrappo | 2022 | 19:17.601 race | 19:13.001 race | -0.40% |
| Emma Rose Zilla | 2022 | 25:26.401 race | 25:22.001 race | -0.29% |
| Matthew Abati | 2022 | 20:07.501 race | 20:06.001 race | -0.12% |
| Yaman Habip | 2022 | 18:18.301 race | 18:17.001 race | -0.12% |
| Torey Mathews | 2022 | 23:53.101 race | 23:54.001 race | +0.06% |
| Elizabeth Pener | 2022 | 24:43.101 race | 24:45.001 race | +0.13% |
| Thomas Strong | 2022 | 19:58.501 race | 20:01.001 race | +0.21% |
| Natalie Williamson | 2022 | 20:44.801 race | 20:50.001 race | +0.42% |
| Evan Zhang | 2022 | 20:56.501 race | 21:02.001 race | +0.44% |
| Emilia Raviola | 2022 | 24:12.801 race | 24:21.001 race | +0.56% |
| Claire Choe | 2022 | 21:10.801 race | 21:21.001 race | +0.80% |
| Dion Cheung | 2022 | 26:58.301 race | 27:16.001 race | +1.09% |
| Louis Chiasson | 2022 | 20:28.001 race | 20:50.001 race | +1.79% |
| Zoe Campbell | 2022 | 20:48.301 race | 21:14.001 race | +2.06% |
| Peter Leitzes | 2022 | 19:11.901 race | 19:42.001 race | +2.61% |
| Leo Demissie | 2022 | 19:52.201 race | 20:24.001 race | +2.67% |
| Elizabeth De Ramel | 2022 | 25:31.401 race | 26:15.001 race | +2.85% |
| Kailin Shi | 2022 | 22:31.701 race | 23:17.001 race | +3.35% |
| Alexander Cesaretti | 2022 | 19:05.001 race | 19:45.001 race | +3.49% |
| Theodore Choe | 2022 | 18:41.401 race | 19:21.001 race | +3.53% |
| Connor Steele | 2022 | 18:33.701 race | 19:18.001 race | +3.98% |
| Masan Porter | 2022 | 21:43.201 race | 22:46.001 race | +4.82% |
| Gabriel (Gabby) Guerrero | 2022 | 17:41.401 race | 18:39.001 race | +5.43% |
| Alexa Burton | 2022 | 21:57.201 race | 23:11.001 race | +5.60% |
| Molly Sheehan | 2022 | 22:00.801 race | 23:15.001 race | +5.62% |