Pairwise course analysis
Washington Park 5K Coursevs.St. Sebastian's 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
St. Sebastian's 5K Course runs slower
+5.39%
Roughly 1:05 slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
64
Strong evidence
Median difference
+5.18%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+5.39%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+6.07%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
St. Sebastian's 5K Course fasterEvenSt. Sebastian's 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
+3.00% to +5.78%
Scale shown
-6% to +6%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Washington Park 5K Course | St. Sebastian's 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rohan Shah | 2022 | 33:52.901 race | 28:47.001 race | -15.05% |
| Vincent Mezzanotte | 2023 | 21:58.001 race | 20:54.001 race | -4.86% |
| John (Jack) Tompros | 2022 | 24:04.001 race | 23:05.001 race | -4.09% |
| Nathan Pappas | 2023 | 22:03.001 race | 21:18.001 race | -3.40% |
| Jack Kastner | 2023 | 22:09.001 race | 21:33.001 race | -2.71% |
| George Carroll | 2023 | 20:51.001 race | 20:26.001 race | -2.00% |
| Quinn Thomson | 2022 | 23:33.501 race | 23:21.001 race | -0.88% |
| Akshay Kumar | 2022 | 20:30.001 race | 20:21.001 race | -0.73% |
| Calvin Reid | 2022 | 23:13.401 race | 23:07.001 race | -0.46% |
| Aaron Stanger | 2023 | 19:15.001 race | 19:12.001 race | -0.26% |
| Carver Porter | 2023 | 20:26.001 race | 20:24.001 race | -0.16% |
| Levi Harrison | 2022 | 18:36.401 race | 18:37.001 race | +0.05% |
| Michael Allen | 2022 | 23:01.501 race | 23:04.001 race | +0.18% |
| Nathaniel Voss | 2023 | 18:26.001 race | 18:29.001 race | +0.27% |
| Alexander Behn | 2023 | 20:13.001 race | 20:24.001 race | +0.91% |
| Mathias Why | 2022 | 20:37.801 race | 20:50.001 race | +0.99% |
| Miles Sandoski | 2023 | 18:02.001 race | 18:17.001 race | +1.39% |
| Mark Price | 2023 | 24:42.001 race | 25:03.001 race | +1.42% |
| Yamin Ibrahim | 2023 | 19:49.001 race | 20:06.001 race | +1.43% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2023 | 18:30.001 race | 18:48.001 race | +1.62% |
| Thomas Savage | 2022 | 22:00.501 race | 22:22.001 race | +1.63% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2023 | 19:11.001 race | 19:30.001 race | +1.65% |
| Kofi Fordjour | 2022 | 17:08.801 race | 17:26.001 race | +1.67% |
| Tobias Jonas | 2023 | 24:36.001 race | 25:01.001 race | +1.69% |
| Evan Zhang | 2022 | 20:56.501 race | 21:19.001 race | +1.79% |
| Eric Diop | 2022 | 17:59.901 race | 18:24.001 race | +2.23% |
| Michael Thomas | 2022 | 18:38.301 race | 19:04.001 race | +2.30% |
| Jackson Pagan | 2023 | 19:43.001 race | 20:23.001 race | +3.38% |
| Adrian Tan | 2023 | 28:03.001 race | 29:11.001 race | +4.04% |
| Ezra Klauber | 2022 | 18:46.101 race | 19:35.001 race | +4.34% |
| Juan-Pablo Fernandez Del Castillo | 2023 | 21:14.001 race | 22:12.001 race | +4.55% |
| Andrew Bittner | 2023 | 21:57.001 race | 23:02.001 race | +4.94% |
| Eric Zhu | 2022 | 18:53.601 race | 19:55.001 race | +5.42% |
| Akhilsai Damera | 2022 | 19:44.001 race | 20:50.001 race | +5.57% |
| Gabriel (Gabby) Guerrero | 2022 | 17:41.401 race | 18:41.001 race | +5.62% |
| Kevin Farmer | 2022 | 20:13.201 race | 21:22.001 race | +5.67% |
| Gratian Ting | 2022 | 21:36.801 race | 22:51.001 race | +5.72% |
| Calvin Pagan | 2023 | 22:39.001 race | 23:58.001 race | +5.81% |
| Po-Tao Hsueh | 2022 | 21:40.601 race | 22:59.001 race | +6.03% |
| William Trautz | 2023 | 17:21.001 race | 18:24.001 race | +6.05% |
| Alexander Cesaretti | 2022 | 19:05.001 race | 20:15.001 race | +6.11% |
| Connor Steele | 2022 | 18:33.701 race | 19:44.001 race | +6.31% |
| Ian Schmidek | 2023 | 23:57.001 race | 25:30.001 race | +6.47% |
| Darian Estrada | 2022 | 24:46.001 race | 26:30.001 race | +7.00% |
| Maksim Roman | 2023 | 18:55.001 race | 20:15.001 race | +7.05% |
| Kevin Weldon | 2023 | 22:21.001 race | 23:56.001 race | +7.08% |
| Rhett Curtis | 2023 | 22:25.001 race | 24:01.001 race | +7.14% |
| Jacob (Coby) Mulliken | 2022 | 19:59.101 race | 21:27.001 race | +7.33% |
| Eita Fuse | 2023 | 18:05.001 race | 19:29.001 race | +7.74% |
| Leo Demissie | 2022 | 19:52.201 race | 21:25.001 race | +7.78% |
| Theodore Choe | 2022 | 18:41.401 race | 20:12.001 race | +8.08% |
| John (Jake) Popeo | 2022 | 19:10.101 race | 20:47.001 race | +8.43% |
| Louis Chiasson | 2022 | 20:28.001 race | 22:15.001 race | +8.71% |
| Samuel Degrappo | 2022 | 19:17.601 race | 21:01.001 race | +8.93% |
| Thomas Strong | 2022 | 19:58.501 race | 21:55.001 race | +9.72% |
| William Achtmeyer | 2023 | 21:38.001 race | 23:47.001 race | +9.94% |
| Peter Leitzes | 2022 | 19:11.901 race | 21:07.001 race | +9.99% |
| Jason Louie | 2022 | 19:57.701 race | 22:16.001 race | +11.55% |
| Yaman Habip | 2022 | 18:18.301 race | 20:30.001 race | +11.99% |
| Jeremiah Mathis | 2022 | 24:04.701 race | 27:17.001 race | +13.31% |
| Eli Berk | 2022 | 21:14.901 race | 24:24.001 race | +14.83% |
| Andrew Rodriguez | 2022 | 22:49.201 race | 26:22.001 race | +15.54% |
| Zidan Graham | 2022 | 23:26.301 race | 27:23.001 race | +16.83% |
| Serhii Malevych | 2022 | 23:07.501 race | 27:22.001 race | +18.34% |