Pairwise course analysis
Bouchard Park 5Kvs.RL 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
RL 5K Course runs slower
+6.32%
Roughly 1:16 slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
70
Strong evidence
Median difference
+8.03%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+6.32%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+5.55%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
RL 5K Course fasterEvenRL 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
+6.75% to +8.99%
Scale shown
-10% to +10%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Bouchard Park 5K | RL 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Wells | 2019 | 25:09.901 race | 24:25.001 race | -2.97% |
| Oliver Colbert | 2025 | 25:09.001 race | 24:25.001 race | -2.92% |
| Ryan Cannistraro | 2019 | 26:52.801 race | 26:17.001 race | -2.22% |
| Nolan McNeil | 2023 | 21:42.001 race | 21:20.001 race | -1.69% |
| Aidan McGaugh | 2019 | 18:12.401 race | 18:07.001 race | -0.49% |
| Jeff Wang | 2022 | 25:22.001 race | 25:42.002 races | +1.31% |
| Sid Chopra | 2025 | 28:45.301 race | 29:14.001 race | +1.66% |
| Nicholas Hebard | 2019 | 22:18.701 race | 22:45.001 race | +1.96% |
| Tyler Forg | 2019 | 20:27.401 race | 20:53.001 race | +2.09% |
| Aidan McCormick | 2019 | 23:02.101 race | 23:42.001 race | +2.89% |
| Charles Donahue | 2019 | 18:26.401 race | 19:04.001 race | +3.40% |
| Bennett Jones | 2022 | 18:21.001 race | 19:00.001 race | +3.54% |
| Abraham Tolkoff | 2019 | 19:35.101 race | 20:20.001 race | +3.82% |
| Howard Huang | 2019 | 21:03.401 race | 21:56.001 race | +4.16% |
| Gabriel Klug | 2019 | 21:55.001 race | 22:50.001 race | +4.18% |
| James Donahue | 2019 | 17:13.501 race | 18:01.001 race | +4.60% |
| Richard Federico III | 2025 | 16:51.801 race | 17:40.001 race | +4.76% |
| Luke Hogan | 2019 | 20:12.201 race | 21:15.001 race | +5.18% |
| Christiaan Eikeboom | 2019 | 19:02.101 race | 20:03.001 race | +5.33% |
| Thomas Romney | 2019 | 19:14.701 race | 20:20.001 race | +5.66% |
| Martin Li | 2022 | 22:05.001 race | 23:25.001 race | +6.04% |
| Andrew Correia | 2021 | 19:34.901 race | 20:47.001 race | +6.14% |
| Aaron Weiner | 2021 | 33:31.101 race | 35:38.001 race | +6.31% |
| James Kerr | 2025 | 15:44.701 race | 16:47.001 race | +6.59% |
| Lincoln Hyatt | 2025 | 17:42.801 race | 18:54.001 race | +6.70% |
| Eric Archerman | 2025 | 17:29.601 race | 18:41.001 race | +6.80% |
| Liam Walsh | 2025 | 16:54.301 race | 18:06.001 race | +7.07% |
| Alex Young | 2023 | 17:50.001 race | 19:06.001 race | +7.10% |
| Sam Blank | 2025 | 18:00.201 race | 19:18.001 race | +7.20% |
| Sam Blank | 2023 | 19:53.001 race | 21:21.001 race | +7.38% |
| Ben Romano | 2025 | 20:17.601 race | 21:49.001 race | +7.51% |
| Heng Leong | 2023 | 20:36.001 race | 22:10.001 race | +7.61% |
| Sreetej Digumarthi | 2019 | 20:23.501 race | 21:57.001 race | +7.64% |
| Alex Chen | 2022 | 24:12.001 race | 26:03.001 race | +7.64% |
| Justin Jang | 2023 | 18:27.001 race | 19:52.001 race | +7.68% |
| Ray Gao | 2022 | 24:27.001 race | 26:30.001 race | +8.38% |
| Eric Zhang | 2022 | 20:40.001 race | 22:27.001 race | +8.63% |
| Jason Minicozzi | 2025 | 15:56.601 race | 17:21.001 race | +8.82% |
| Jasper Hyatt | 2025 | 20:42.301 race | 22:32.001 race | +8.83% |
| Henry Buckley-Jones | 2021 | 17:54.801 race | 19:31.001 race | +8.95% |
| Dash Claflin | 2025 | 17:45.701 race | 19:27.001 race | +9.51% |
| Alex Young | 2021 | 19:41.501 race | 21:34.001 race | +9.52% |
| AJ Gorman | 2022 | 17:09.001 race | 18:47.001 race | +9.52% |
| Alex Kovtenenko | 2025 | 19:15.401 race | 21:08.001 race | +9.75% |
| Nick Glaeser | 2025 | 22:08.601 race | 24:20.001 race | +9.89% |
| Julian Vidal | 2025 | 20:29.001 race | 22:32.001 race | +10.01% |
| James Nichols-Worley | 2022 | 20:08.001 race | 22:12.001 race | +10.26% |
| Jacob Snell | 2022 | 18:33.001 race | 20:30.001 race | +10.51% |
| Tyler Cornetta | 2021 | 19:36.001 race | 21:40.001 race | +10.54% |
| Colby Crawford | 2025 | 18:50.701 race | 20:52.001 race | +10.73% |
| Colin Bradley | 2025 | 17:34.601 race | 19:28.001 race | +10.75% |
| Toby Harrison | 2025 | 18:07.501 race | 20:07.001 race | +10.99% |
| Sebastian Rome | 2022 | 21:22.001 race | 23:44.001 race | +11.08% |
| Daniel Bittner | 2019 | 21:28.401 race | 23:52.001 race | +11.15% |
| Eli Helzberg | 2021 | 21:38.201 race | 24:03.001 race | +11.15% |
| Arjun Yerabothu | 2022 | 27:38.001 race | 30:47.001 race | +11.40% |
| Justin Jang | 2021 | 20:08.001 race | 22:26.001 race | +11.42% |
| Gianluca Foschi Walko | 2019 | 20:25.501 race | 22:49.001 race | +11.71% |
| Henry Wang | 2022 | 19:27.001 race | 21:48.001 race | +12.08% |
| Andrew Young | 2021 | 21:17.601 race | 23:54.001 race | +12.24% |
| Temi Martins Dosumu | 2025 | 25:01.401 race | 28:08.001 race | +12.43% |
| Ameer Hasan | 2025 | 22:04.101 race | 24:54.001 race | +12.83% |
| Ian Choe | 2022 | 25:08.001 race | 28:24.001 race | +13.00% |
| Paul Tompros | 2025 | 23:21.201 race | 26:24.001 race | +13.05% |
| Jacob Cifuentes | 2022 | 22:53.001 race | 26:09.001 race | +14.28% |
| Walt Reagan-Loomis | 2021 | 20:08.501 race | 23:07.001 race | +14.77% |
| Justin Lin | 2025 | 21:09.701 race | 24:25.001 race | +15.38% |
| Max Kesselheim | 2025 | 18:37.601 race | 21:42.001 race | +16.50% |
| Jeff Lei | 2022 | 22:53.001 race | 26:46.001 race | +16.97% |
| Wes Shaller | 2025 | 20:43.701 race | 25:03.001 race | +20.85% |