Pairwise course analysis

Bouchard Park 5Kvs.Rock Meadow Short Loop 5K

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

Rock Meadow Short Loop 5K runs slower

+3.21%

Roughly 38.5 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

36

Developing evidence

Median difference

+3.26%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

+3.21%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+3.68%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

Rock Meadow Short Loop 5K fasterEvenRock Meadow Short Loop 5K slower

Confidence interval

+1.97% to +4.04%

Scale shown

-6% to +6%

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonBouchard Park 5KRock Meadow Short Loop 5KDifference
Jackson Pagan202219:11.001 race18:39.001 race-2.78%
Alexander Behn202219:14.001 race18:43.001 race-2.69%
Angus Harrison202218:57.001 race18:29.001 race-2.46%
Jack Kastner202221:59.001 race21:27.001 race-2.43%
Tobias Jonas202221:58.001 race21:28.001 race-2.28%
Maksim Roman202219:17.001 race19:03.001 race-1.21%
Adrian Tan202223:27.001 race23:31.001 race+0.28%
Michael Bobo202221:16.001 race21:21.001 race+0.39%
Aaron Stanger202217:42.001 race17:56.001 race+1.32%
Fitz Courtney202217:34.001 race17:49.001 race+1.42%
Juan-Pablo Fernandez Del Castillo202220:24.001 race20:51.001 race+2.21%
Henry Ramanathan202219:22.001 race19:51.001 race+2.50%
Gabriel Simmons202220:05.001 race20:36.001 race+2.57%
Jeremy Eaton202219:26.001 race19:58.001 race+2.74%
Charles Mullaney201921:05.001 race21:41.001 race+2.85%
Charles Donahue201918:26.401 race18:58.001 race+2.86%
Miles Sandoski202217:17.001 race17:48.001 race+2.99%
Nicholas Hebard201922:18.701 race23:01.001 race+3.16%
Ryan Cannistraro201926:52.801 race27:47.001 race+3.36%
Davis Woolbert202217:40.001 race18:18.001 race+3.58%
Gabriel Klug201921:55.001 race22:47.001 race+3.95%
Reuben Siegel202223:23.001 race24:19.001 race+3.99%
Daniel Xie202220:57.001 race21:48.001 race+4.06%
Carver Porter202219:00.001 race19:50.001 race+4.39%
Nathaniel Voss202217:39.001 race18:27.001 race+4.53%
Jake Pappo201920:27.101 race21:23.001 race+4.56%
Howard Huang201921:03.401 race22:08.001 race+5.11%
Ian Schmidek202226:25.001 race27:47.001 race+5.17%
Aidan McGaugh201918:12.401 race19:10.001 race+5.27%
Christiaan Eikeboom201919:02.101 race20:04.001 race+5.42%
Tyler Forg201920:27.401 race21:42.001 race+6.08%
Daniel Bittner201921:28.401 race22:55.001 race+6.72%
Luke Hogan201920:12.201 race21:40.001 race+7.24%
Luca Mezzanotte202219:42.001 race21:08.001 race+7.28%
Sreetej Digumarthi201920:23.501 race22:09.001 race+8.62%
Charles Wells201925:09.901 race27:26.001 race+9.01%