Pairwise course analysis
Bouchard Park 5Kvs.Rock Meadow Short Loop 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Rock Meadow Short Loop 5K runs slower
+3.21%
Roughly 38.5 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
36
Developing evidence
Median difference
+3.26%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+3.21%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.68%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
+1.97% to +4.04%
Scale shown
-6% to +6%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Bouchard Park 5K | Rock Meadow Short Loop 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Pagan | 2022 | 19:11.001 race | 18:39.001 race | -2.78% |
| Alexander Behn | 2022 | 19:14.001 race | 18:43.001 race | -2.69% |
| Angus Harrison | 2022 | 18:57.001 race | 18:29.001 race | -2.46% |
| Jack Kastner | 2022 | 21:59.001 race | 21:27.001 race | -2.43% |
| Tobias Jonas | 2022 | 21:58.001 race | 21:28.001 race | -2.28% |
| Maksim Roman | 2022 | 19:17.001 race | 19:03.001 race | -1.21% |
| Adrian Tan | 2022 | 23:27.001 race | 23:31.001 race | +0.28% |
| Michael Bobo | 2022 | 21:16.001 race | 21:21.001 race | +0.39% |
| Aaron Stanger | 2022 | 17:42.001 race | 17:56.001 race | +1.32% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2022 | 17:34.001 race | 17:49.001 race | +1.42% |
| Juan-Pablo Fernandez Del Castillo | 2022 | 20:24.001 race | 20:51.001 race | +2.21% |
| Henry Ramanathan | 2022 | 19:22.001 race | 19:51.001 race | +2.50% |
| Gabriel Simmons | 2022 | 20:05.001 race | 20:36.001 race | +2.57% |
| Jeremy Eaton | 2022 | 19:26.001 race | 19:58.001 race | +2.74% |
| Charles Mullaney | 2019 | 21:05.001 race | 21:41.001 race | +2.85% |
| Charles Donahue | 2019 | 18:26.401 race | 18:58.001 race | +2.86% |
| Miles Sandoski | 2022 | 17:17.001 race | 17:48.001 race | +2.99% |
| Nicholas Hebard | 2019 | 22:18.701 race | 23:01.001 race | +3.16% |
| Ryan Cannistraro | 2019 | 26:52.801 race | 27:47.001 race | +3.36% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2022 | 17:40.001 race | 18:18.001 race | +3.58% |
| Gabriel Klug | 2019 | 21:55.001 race | 22:47.001 race | +3.95% |
| Reuben Siegel | 2022 | 23:23.001 race | 24:19.001 race | +3.99% |
| Daniel Xie | 2022 | 20:57.001 race | 21:48.001 race | +4.06% |
| Carver Porter | 2022 | 19:00.001 race | 19:50.001 race | +4.39% |
| Nathaniel Voss | 2022 | 17:39.001 race | 18:27.001 race | +4.53% |
| Jake Pappo | 2019 | 20:27.101 race | 21:23.001 race | +4.56% |
| Howard Huang | 2019 | 21:03.401 race | 22:08.001 race | +5.11% |
| Ian Schmidek | 2022 | 26:25.001 race | 27:47.001 race | +5.17% |
| Aidan McGaugh | 2019 | 18:12.401 race | 19:10.001 race | +5.27% |
| Christiaan Eikeboom | 2019 | 19:02.101 race | 20:04.001 race | +5.42% |
| Tyler Forg | 2019 | 20:27.401 race | 21:42.001 race | +6.08% |
| Daniel Bittner | 2019 | 21:28.401 race | 22:55.001 race | +6.72% |
| Luke Hogan | 2019 | 20:12.201 race | 21:40.001 race | +7.24% |
| Luca Mezzanotte | 2022 | 19:42.001 race | 21:08.001 race | +7.28% |
| Sreetej Digumarthi | 2019 | 20:23.501 race | 22:09.001 race | +8.62% |
| Charles Wells | 2019 | 25:09.901 race | 27:26.001 race | +9.01% |