Pairwise course analysis
Bouchard Park 5Kvs.St. Paul's School 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
St. Paul's School 5K runs slower
+2.26%
Roughly 27.1 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
19
Developing evidence
Median difference
+3.19%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+2.26%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+4.22%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
+1.78% to +4.81%
Scale shown
-6% to +6%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Bouchard Park 5K | St. Paul's School 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobias Jonas | 2022 | 21:58.001 race | 21:28.001 race | -2.28% |
| Jackson Pagan | 2022 | 19:11.001 race | 19:00.001 race | -0.96% |
| Jack Kastner | 2022 | 21:59.001 race | 22:02.001 race | +0.23% |
| Alexander Behn | 2022 | 19:14.001 race | 19:17.001 race | +0.26% |
| Michael Bobo | 2022 | 21:16.001 race | 21:24.001 race | +0.63% |
| Miles Sandoski | 2022 | 17:17.001 race | 17:30.001 race | +1.25% |
| Gabriel Simmons | 2022 | 20:05.001 race | 20:27.001 race | +1.83% |
| Angus Harrison | 2022 | 18:57.001 race | 19:18.001 race | +1.85% |
| Nathaniel Voss | 2022 | 17:39.001 race | 18:08.001 race | +2.74% |
| Juan-Pablo Fernandez Del Castillo | 2022 | 20:24.001 race | 21:03.001 race | +3.19% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2022 | 17:34.001 race | 18:12.001 race | +3.61% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2022 | 17:40.001 race | 18:31.001 race | +4.81% |
| William Trautz | 2022 | 17:36.001 race | 18:27.001 race | +4.83% |
| Aaron Stanger | 2022 | 17:42.001 race | 18:35.001 race | +4.99% |
| Daniel Xie | 2022 | 20:57.001 race | 22:05.001 race | +5.41% |
| Luca Mezzanotte | 2022 | 19:42.001 race | 20:51.001 race | +5.84% |
| Carver Porter | 2022 | 19:00.001 race | 20:09.001 race | +6.05% |
| Henry Ramanathan | 2022 | 19:22.001 race | 20:35.001 race | +6.28% |
| Andrew Bittner | 2022 | 20:16.001 race | 22:52.001 race | +12.83% |