Pairwise course analysis
Canterbury School 5Kvs.Noble and Greenough School 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Noble and Greenough School 5K runs slower
+4.68%
Roughly 56.1 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
9
Limited evidence
Median difference
+7.32%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+4.68%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.34%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
+6.03% to +9.16%
Scale shown
-10% to +10%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Canterbury School 5K | Noble and Greenough School 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicole Fallon | 2024 | 25:19.001 race | 26:16.001 race | +3.75% |
| Alexander Colangelo | 2024 | 17:29.001 race | 18:30.001 race | +5.82% |
| Matthew Smith | 2024 | 20:01.001 race | 21:13.001 race | +6.00% |
| Lucas Miller | 2024 | 17:58.001 race | 19:08.001 race | +6.49% |
| Nate Hagerty | 2024 | 19:21.001 race | 20:46.001 race | +7.32% |
| Myles McCusker | 2024 | 20:46.001 race | 22:26.001 race | +8.03% |
| Peter Gnazzo | 2024 | 22:22.001 race | 24:30.001 race | +9.54% |
| Kate Tarr | 2024 | 20:42.001 race | 22:52.001 race | +10.47% |
| Sanjay Ravindran | 2024 | 23:20.001 race | 25:55.001 race | +11.07% |