Pairwise course analysis
LA 5K Coursevs.NEPSTA DIII 2019 Championship Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
NEPSTA DIII 2019 Championship Course runs faster
-10.02%
Roughly 2:00 faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
23
Developing evidence
Median difference
-10.27%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-10.02%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+4.04%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-12.59% to -3.25%
Scale shown
-14% to +14%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | LA 5K Course | NEPSTA DIII 2019 Championship Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natalie Kloman | 2019 | 33:10.001 race | 28:09.001 race | -15.13% |
| Hanna Lapides | 2019 | 26:28.001 race | 22:37.001 race | -14.55% |
| Tegan Young | 2019 | 25:03.002 races | 21:28.001 race | -14.30% |
| Brandon Christ | 2019 | 19:38.002 races | 17:06.001 race | -12.90% |
| Amanda Gary | 2019 | 24:47.001 race | 21:45.001 race | -12.24% |
| Margo Lewis | 2019 | 23:36.001 race | 20:53.001 race | -11.51% |
| George Reinhardt | 2019 | 19:29.001 race | 17:15.001 race | -11.46% |
| Sophia Lando | 2019 | 25:34.001 race | 22:39.001 race | -11.41% |
| Max Meyerhardt | 2019 | 19:34.001 race | 17:26.001 race | -10.90% |
| Noah Naddaff-Slocum | 2019 | 20:41.001 race | 18:30.001 race | -10.56% |
| Jess Fatzinger | 2019 | 27:32.002 races | 24:41.001 race | -10.35% |
| Mark Ryan | 2019 | 18:20.001 race | 16:27.001 race | -10.27% |
| Hannah Gidlewski | 2019 | 27:20.001 race | 24:37.001 race | -9.94% |
| Crystal Xia | 2019 | 27:32.002 races | 24:53.001 race | -9.62% |
| Chris Davis | 2019 | 18:31.002 races | 16:47.001 race | -9.36% |
| Samuel Lyons | 2019 | 19:37.001 race | 17:53.001 race | -8.84% |
| Cam Stathos | 2019 | 18:29.001 race | 16:57.001 race | -8.30% |
| Enock Musyoka | 2019 | 16:50.002 races | 15:34.001 race | -7.52% |
| Ethan Paek | 2019 | 19:25.002 races | 18:00.001 race | -7.30% |
| Daichi Seki | 2019 | 20:28.002 races | 19:00.001 race | -7.17% |
| Arjun Girish | 2019 | 20:59.002 races | 19:29.001 race | -7.15% |
| Calvin Smith | 2019 | 18:34.001 race | 17:30.001 race | -5.75% |
| Shaniece Nugent | 2019 | 27:03.002 races | 43:20.001 race | +60.20% |