Pairwise course analysis
Middlesex 5K Coursevs.Highland Park Championship Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Highland Park Championship Course runs faster
-4.81%
Roughly 57.7 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
14
Limited evidence
Median difference
-8.69%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-4.81%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+13.78%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-14.49% to -5.87%
Scale shown
-16% to +16%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Middlesex 5K Course | Highland Park Championship Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinto Nakazawa | 2023 | 30:53.001 race | 22:50.001 race | -26.07% |
| George Yerid | 2023 | 33:25.001 race | 25:53.001 race | -22.54% |
| Sanjay Ravindran | 2023 | 27:15.001 race | 22:43.001 race | -16.64% |
| Caleb Stokes | 2023 | 29:38.001 race | 24:56.001 race | -15.86% |
| Joshua White | 2023 | 25:42.001 race | 22:30.001 race | -12.45% |
| Myles McCusker | 2023 | 23:28.001 race | 21:07.001 race | -10.01% |
| Nicole Fallon | 2023 | 28:10.001 race | 25:28.001 race | -9.59% |
| Quentin DeFreitas | 2023 | 24:00.001 race | 22:08.001 race | -7.78% |
| Meri Rainford | 2023 | 23:46.001 race | 22:02.001 race | -7.29% |
| Peter Gnazzo | 2023 | 24:15.001 race | 23:17.001 race | -3.99% |
| Lucas Miller | 2023 | 18:53.001 race | 18:18.001 race | -3.09% |
| Matthew Smith | 2023 | 22:21.001 race | 21:56.001 race | -1.86% |
| Anthony Coston | 2023 | 22:24.001 race | 22:07.001 race | -1.26% |
| Alexander Colangelo | 2023 | 17:52.001 race | 17:44.001 race | -0.75% |