Pairwise course analysis
Middlesex 5K Coursevs.NEPSTA DIII 2019 Championship Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
NEPSTA DIII 2019 Championship Course runs faster
-9.01%
Roughly 1:48 faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
8
Limited evidence
Median difference
-8.81%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-9.01%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+1.03%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-9.45% to -7.76%
Scale shown
-10% to +10%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Middlesex 5K Course | NEPSTA DIII 2019 Championship Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Petrovas | 2019 | 24:07.001 race | 21:35.001 race | -10.50% |
| Nick Doan | 2019 | 20:26.001 race | 18:32.001 race | -9.30% |
| William Wilson | 2019 | 18:56.001 race | 17:13.001 race | -9.07% |
| Grace Tatirosian | 2019 | 23:13.001 race | 21:10.001 race | -8.83% |
| Liliana Froehner | 2019 | 21:59.001 race | 20:03.001 race | -8.79% |
| Henry Welch | 2019 | 18:46.001 race | 17:09.001 race | -8.61% |
| Jg Hill-Edgar | 2019 | 19:35.001 race | 18:14.001 race | -6.89% |
| Aristo Wang | 2019 | 19:50.001 race | 18:29.001 race | -6.81% |