Pairwise course analysis
Milton Standard 5Kvs.NEPSTA DIII 2019 Championship Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
NEPSTA DIII 2019 Championship Course runs faster
-6.61%
Roughly 1:19 faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
13
Limited evidence
Median difference
-6.42%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-6.61%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+4.67%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-8.14% to -5.30%
Scale shown
-10% to +10%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Milton Standard 5K | NEPSTA DIII 2019 Championship Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clara Choi | 2019 | 35:53.001 race | 31:39.001 race | -11.80% |
| Nate Wirth | 2019 | 21:26.001 race | 19:12.001 race | -10.42% |
| Ashley Picard | 2019 | 24:13.001 race | 21:59.001 race | -9.22% |
| Angelina Liberman | 2019 | 26:51.001 race | 24:33.001 race | -8.57% |
| Luke Desmaison | 2019 | 19:50.001 race | 18:28.001 race | -6.89% |
| Alex Tobias | 2019 | 17:51.001 race | 16:39.001 race | -6.72% |
| Tori Duckworth | 2019 | 22:35.001 race | 21:08.001 race | -6.42% |
| Vanessa Shipley | 2019 | 23:28.001 race | 22:12.001 race | -5.40% |
| Molly Madigan | 2019 | 23:49.001 race | 22:35.001 race | -5.18% |
| James Lyman | 2019 | 20:34.001 race | 19:41.001 race | -4.29% |
| Gardner Brown | 2019 | 20:18.001 race | 19:26.001 race | -4.27% |
| Tanay Kommareddi | 2019 | 20:41.001 race | 19:50.001 race | -4.11% |
| Nashr El Auliya | 2019 | 20:00.001 race | 19:14.001 race | -3.83% |