Pairwise course analysis
NEPSTA DIII 2019 Championship Coursevs.LA 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
LA 5K Course runs slower
+11.14%
Roughly 2:14 slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
23
Developing evidence
Median difference
+11.45%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+11.14%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+4.04%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
+3.36% to +14.40%
Scale shown
-16% to +16%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | NEPSTA DIII 2019 Championship Course | LA 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaniece Nugent | 2019 | 43:20.001 race | 27:03.002 races | -37.58% |
| Calvin Smith | 2019 | 17:30.001 race | 18:34.001 race | +6.10% |
| Arjun Girish | 2019 | 19:29.001 race | 20:59.002 races | +7.70% |
| Daichi Seki | 2019 | 19:00.001 race | 20:28.002 races | +7.72% |
| Ethan Paek | 2019 | 18:00.001 race | 19:25.002 races | +7.87% |
| Enock Musyoka | 2019 | 15:34.001 race | 16:50.002 races | +8.14% |
| Cam Stathos | 2019 | 16:57.001 race | 18:29.001 race | +9.05% |
| Samuel Lyons | 2019 | 17:53.001 race | 19:37.001 race | +9.69% |
| Chris Davis | 2019 | 16:47.001 race | 18:31.002 races | +10.33% |
| Crystal Xia | 2019 | 24:53.001 race | 27:32.002 races | +10.65% |
| Hannah Gidlewski | 2019 | 24:37.001 race | 27:20.001 race | +11.04% |
| Mark Ryan | 2019 | 16:27.001 race | 18:20.001 race | +11.45% |
| Jess Fatzinger | 2019 | 24:41.001 race | 27:32.002 races | +11.55% |
| Noah Naddaff-Slocum | 2019 | 18:30.001 race | 20:41.001 race | +11.80% |
| Max Meyerhardt | 2019 | 17:26.001 race | 19:34.001 race | +12.24% |
| Sophia Lando | 2019 | 22:39.001 race | 25:34.001 race | +12.88% |
| George Reinhardt | 2019 | 17:15.001 race | 19:29.001 race | +12.95% |
| Margo Lewis | 2019 | 20:53.001 race | 23:36.001 race | +13.01% |
| Amanda Gary | 2019 | 21:45.001 race | 24:47.001 race | +13.95% |
| Brandon Christ | 2019 | 17:06.001 race | 19:38.002 races | +14.81% |
| Tegan Young | 2019 | 21:28.001 race | 25:03.002 races | +16.69% |
| Hanna Lapides | 2019 | 22:37.001 race | 26:28.001 race | +17.02% |
| Natalie Kloman | 2019 | 28:09.001 race | 33:10.001 race | +17.82% |