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Pairwise course analysis

NEPSTA DIII 2019 Championship Coursevs.St. Mark's School Championship Course

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

St. Mark's School Championship Course runs slower

+8.92%

Roughly 1:47 slower for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

48

Strong evidence

Median difference

+8.87%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

+8.92%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+3.66%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

St. Mark's School Championship Course fasterEvenSt. Mark's School Championship Course slower

Confidence interval

+5.13% to +10.76%

Scale shown

-12% to +12%

Course context

The two courses

Baseline course

NEPSTA DIII 2019 Championship Course

4,650 meters

Compared course

St. Mark's School Championship Course

4,900 meters

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonNEPSTA DIII 2019 Championship CourseSt. Mark's School Championship CourseDifference
Shaniece Nugent201943:20.001 race25:31.001 race-41.12%
Nate Wirth201919:12.001 race20:02.001 race+4.34%
Tanay Kommareddi201919:50.001 race20:52.001 race+5.21%
Mark Ryan201916:27.001 race17:20.001 race+5.37%
Gardner Brown201919:26.001 race20:30.001 race+5.49%
Enock Musyoka201915:34.001 race16:28.001 race+5.78%
James Lyman201919:41.001 race20:51.001 race+5.93%
Jg Hill-Edgar201918:14.001 race19:21.002 races+6.12%
Calvin Smith201917:30.001 race18:40.001 race+6.67%
Vanessa Shipley201922:12.001 race23:49.001 race+7.28%
Aristo Wang201918:29.001 race19:50.002 races+7.30%
Nashr El Auliya201919:14.001 race20:42.001 race+7.63%
Arjun Girish201919:29.001 race20:59.001 race+7.70%
Nick Doan201918:32.001 race19:58.001 race+7.73%
Hanna Lapides201922:37.001 race24:22.001 race+7.74%
Zoe Petrovas201921:03.001 race22:42.002 races+7.84%
Ethan Paek201918:00.001 race19:25.001 race+7.87%
Charlie Sorenson201917:32.001 race18:56.002 races+7.98%
Daichi Seki201919:00.001 race20:34.001 race+8.25%
Alex Tobias201916:39.001 race18:03.001 race+8.41%
Ashley Picard201921:59.001 race23:51.001 race+8.49%
Henry Welch201917:09.001 race18:38.002 races+8.65%
Jess Fatzinger201924:41.001 race26:51.001 race+8.78%
Sophia Petrovas201921:35.001 race23:29.002 races+8.80%
Margo Lewis201920:53.001 race22:45.001 race+8.94%
Gabriela Alfaro Pitman201921:45.001 race23:42.001 race+8.97%
Samuel Lyons201917:53.001 race19:30.001 race+9.04%
Liliana Froehner201920:03.001 race21:57.002 races+9.48%
Sophia Lando201922:39.001 race24:49.001 race+9.57%
Grace Tatirosian201921:10.001 race23:12.002 races+9.61%
Tori Duckworth201921:08.001 race23:12.001 race+9.78%
Ana Lial201920:07.001 race22:12.001 race+10.36%
Owen Wang201919:16.001 race21:20.001 race+10.73%
Amanda Gary201921:45.001 race24:11.001 race+11.19%
Luke Roosa201917:35.001 race19:34.002 races+11.28%
Brandon Christ201917:06.001 race19:05.001 race+11.60%
George Reinhardt201917:15.001 race19:16.001 race+11.69%
Clara Choi201931:39.001 race35:28.001 race+12.06%
Angelina Liberman201924:33.001 race27:33.001 race+12.22%
William Wilson201917:13.001 race19:20.002 races+12.29%
Hannah Gidlewski201924:37.001 race27:39.001 race+12.32%
Luke Desmaison201918:28.001 race20:46.001 race+12.45%
Max Meyerhardt201917:26.001 race19:39.001 race+12.72%
Crystal Xia201924:53.001 race28:04.001 race+12.79%
Sophia Ronchetti201926:41.001 race30:06.001 race+12.80%
Chris Davis201916:47.001 race18:59.001 race+13.11%
Tegan Young201921:28.001 race24:20.001 race+13.35%
Natalie Kloman201928:09.001 race32:26.001 race+15.22%