Pairwise course analysis
Rock Meadow Short Loop 5Kvs.Bouchard Park 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Bouchard Park 5K runs faster
-3.11%
Roughly 37.3 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
36
Developing evidence
Median difference
-3.16%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-3.11%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.68%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-3.89% to -1.93%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Rock Meadow Short Loop 5K | Bouchard Park 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Wells | 2019 | 27:26.001 race | 25:09.901 race | -8.27% |
| Sreetej Digumarthi | 2019 | 22:09.001 race | 20:23.501 race | -7.94% |
| Luca Mezzanotte | 2022 | 21:08.001 race | 19:42.001 race | -6.78% |
| Luke Hogan | 2019 | 21:40.001 race | 20:12.201 race | -6.75% |
| Daniel Bittner | 2019 | 22:55.001 race | 21:28.401 race | -6.30% |
| Tyler Forg | 2019 | 21:42.001 race | 20:27.401 race | -5.73% |
| Christiaan Eikeboom | 2019 | 20:04.001 race | 19:02.101 race | -5.14% |
| Aidan McGaugh | 2019 | 19:10.001 race | 18:12.401 race | -5.01% |
| Ian Schmidek | 2022 | 27:47.001 race | 26:25.001 race | -4.92% |
| Howard Huang | 2019 | 22:08.001 race | 21:03.401 race | -4.86% |
| Jake Pappo | 2019 | 21:23.001 race | 20:27.101 race | -4.36% |
| Nathaniel Voss | 2022 | 18:27.001 race | 17:39.001 race | -4.34% |
| Carver Porter | 2022 | 19:50.001 race | 19:00.001 race | -4.20% |
| Daniel Xie | 2022 | 21:48.001 race | 20:57.001 race | -3.90% |
| Reuben Siegel | 2022 | 24:19.001 race | 23:23.001 race | -3.84% |
| Gabriel Klug | 2019 | 22:47.001 race | 21:55.001 race | -3.80% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2022 | 18:18.001 race | 17:40.001 race | -3.46% |
| Ryan Cannistraro | 2019 | 27:47.001 race | 26:52.801 race | -3.25% |
| Nicholas Hebard | 2019 | 23:01.001 race | 22:18.701 race | -3.06% |
| Miles Sandoski | 2022 | 17:48.001 race | 17:17.001 race | -2.90% |
| Charles Donahue | 2019 | 18:58.001 race | 18:26.401 race | -2.78% |
| Charles Mullaney | 2019 | 21:41.001 race | 21:05.001 race | -2.77% |
| Jeremy Eaton | 2022 | 19:58.001 race | 19:26.001 race | -2.67% |
| Gabriel Simmons | 2022 | 20:36.001 race | 20:05.001 race | -2.51% |
| Henry Ramanathan | 2022 | 19:51.001 race | 19:22.001 race | -2.43% |
| Juan-Pablo Fernandez Del Castillo | 2022 | 20:51.001 race | 20:24.001 race | -2.16% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2022 | 17:49.001 race | 17:34.001 race | -1.40% |
| Aaron Stanger | 2022 | 17:56.001 race | 17:42.001 race | -1.30% |
| Michael Bobo | 2022 | 21:21.001 race | 21:16.001 race | -0.39% |
| Adrian Tan | 2022 | 23:31.001 race | 23:27.001 race | -0.28% |
| Maksim Roman | 2022 | 19:03.001 race | 19:17.001 race | +1.22% |
| Tobias Jonas | 2022 | 21:28.001 race | 21:58.001 race | +2.33% |
| Jack Kastner | 2022 | 21:27.001 race | 21:59.001 race | +2.49% |
| Angus Harrison | 2022 | 18:29.001 race | 18:57.001 race | +2.52% |
| Alexander Behn | 2022 | 18:43.001 race | 19:14.001 race | +2.76% |
| Jackson Pagan | 2022 | 18:39.001 race | 19:11.001 race | +2.86% |