Pairwise course analysis
St. Georges 5Kvs.Thayer 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Thayer 5K Course runs faster
-3.60%
Roughly 43.1 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
90
Strong evidence
Median difference
-3.20%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-3.60%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+8.26%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Thayer 5K Course fasterEvenThayer 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
-4.11% to -1.83%
Scale shown
-6% to +6%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Georges 5K | Thayer 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Eslick | 2025 | 24:22.001 race | 20:17.001 race | -16.76% |
| Rileigh Murphy-Morris | 2022 | 25:32.001 race | 21:44.002 races | -14.88% |
| Alex Mao | 2025 | 24:54.001 race | 21:34.001 race | -13.39% |
| Theodore Dowd | 2022 | 24:46.001 race | 21:46.001 race | -12.11% |
| Lindsey Bennett | 2022 | 25:33.001 race | 22:33.001 race | -11.74% |
| Cate Devaney | 2022 | 25:32.001 race | 22:41.001 race | -11.16% |
| Alyssa McGuirl | 2022 | 31:40.001 race | 28:23.001 race | -10.37% |
| Kylie Bogar | 2022 | 28:48.001 race | 26:01.001 race | -9.66% |
| Natalie Kloman | 2022 | 28:44.001 race | 26:01.001 race | -9.45% |
| Alexa Meekins | 2022 | 31:04.001 race | 28:12.001 race | -9.23% |
| Anya Carroll | 2022 | 27:31.001 race | 25:01.001 race | -9.09% |
| Jameso Flaherty-Clapham | 2022 | 30:42.001 race | 27:55.001 race | -9.07% |
| William Kim | 2025 | 21:49.001 race | 19:53.001 race | -8.86% |
| Valentina Joseph | 2022 | 29:14.001 race | 26:43.001 race | -8.61% |
| Juliana Lynch | 2022 | 27:19.001 race | 25:01.001 race | -8.42% |
| Ella Richards | 2022 | 24:20.001 race | 22:23.001 race | -8.01% |
| Sam Blank | 2022 | 21:54.001 race | 20:10.001 race | -7.91% |
| Andrew Young | 2022 | 21:35.001 race | 19:55.001 race | -7.72% |
| Brooke Hansen | 2022 | 23:23.001 race | 21:39.001 race | -7.41% |
| Tyler Cornetta | 2022 | 21:12.001 race | 19:43.001 race | -7.00% |
| Heng Leong | 2022 | 22:22.001 race | 20:49.001 race | -6.93% |
| John Brice | 2022 | 22:26.001 race | 20:55.001 race | -6.76% |
| Madeline Pike | 2022 | 23:53.001 race | 22:18.001 race | -6.63% |
| Megan Corry | 2022 | 27:40.001 race | 25:52.001 race | -6.51% |
| Alex Xi | 2025 | 26:24.001 race | 24:43.001 race | -6.38% |
| Fiji Chen | 2025 | 22:34.001 race | 21:10.001 race | -6.20% |
| Maggie Crowley | 2022 | 22:54.001 race | 21:33.001 race | -5.90% |
| Eli Helzberg | 2022 | 21:38.001 race | 20:22.001 race | -5.86% |
| Tommy Bi | 2022 | 22:15.001 race | 21:03.001 race | -5.39% |
| Jason Minicozzi | 2022 | 19:33.001 race | 18:32.001 race | -5.20% |
| Justin Jang | 2022 | 19:34.001 race | 18:34.001 race | -5.11% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2022 | 22:26.001 race | 21:21.001 race | -4.83% |
| Constance Legrand | 2019 | 26:35.001 race | 25:19.001 race | -4.76% |
| Samuel Lyons | 2022 | 18:11.001 race | 17:20.001 race | -4.67% |
| Julian Yang | 2025 | 23:45.001 race | 22:39.001 race | -4.63% |
| Taylor Ehler | 2022 | 31:51.001 race | 30:25.001 race | -4.50% |
| Michael Wu | 2019 | 24:20.001 race | 23:17.001 race | -4.32% |
| Nathalie Westpfahl | 2021 | 25:03.001 race | 24:01.001 race | -4.13% |
| Alexa Adams | 2022 | 25:17.001 race | 24:16.001 race | -4.02% |
| Brendan Brosnan | 2022 | 20:48.001 race | 19:59.001 race | -3.93% |
| Henry Buckley-Jones | 2022 | 17:54.001 race | 17:13.001 race | -3.82% |
| Emily Bunn | 2022 | 22:31.001 race | 21:40.001 race | -3.77% |
| Amanda Gary | 2019 | 25:06.001 race | 24:10.001 race | -3.72% |
| Conor Mannion | 2022 | 22:10.001 race | 21:26.001 race | -3.31% |
| Breanna Kunkel | 2022 | 22:54.001 race | 22:10.001 race | -3.20% |
| Evan Schneider | 2022 | 21:54.001 race | 21:12.001 race | -3.20% |
| Mairin Anderson | 2022 | 25:37.001 race | 24:49.001 race | -3.12% |
| Ava Palazzolo | 2022 | 22:56.001 race | 22:17.001 race | -2.83% |
| Alex Young | 2022 | 19:29.001 race | 18:59.001 race | -2.57% |
| Nick Song | 2025 | 23:30.001 race | 22:57.001 race | -2.34% |
| Brandon Christ | 2021 | 19:52.001 race | 19:28.001 race | -2.01% |
| Katie Wipf | 2022 | 21:53.001 race | 21:31.001 race | -1.68% |
| Isaiah Raore | 2025 | 19:00.001 race | 18:41.001 race | -1.67% |
| Jason Tae | 2025 | 23:21.001 race | 22:58.001 race | -1.64% |
| Joshua Rocha | 2019 | 21:22.001 race | 21:02.001 race | -1.56% |
| Nathalie Pierpont | 2021 | 26:47.001 race | 26:27.001 race | -1.24% |
| Cole Zaleski | 2019 | 21:27.001 race | 21:14.001 race | -1.01% |
| Angelina Hammerschlag | 2022 | 24:35.001 race | 24:22.001 race | -0.88% |
| Max Meyerhardt | 2019 | 19:35.001 race | 19:35.001 race | 0.00% |
| Calvin Smith | 2019 | 18:45.001 race | 18:45.001 race | 0.00% |
| Izzy O'Brien | 2022 | 25:33.001 race | 25:34.001 race | +0.07% |
| Cam Dailey | 2019 | 21:27.001 race | 21:33.001 race | +0.47% |
| George Reinhardt | 2019 | 19:09.001 race | 19:17.001 race | +0.70% |
| Charlotte Lokere | 2021 | 30:57.001 race | 31:10.001 race | +0.70% |
| Gryffin Daley | 2025 | 18:27.001 race | 18:35.001 race | +0.72% |
| Catherine Anderson | 2019 | 26:58.001 race | 27:10.001 race | +0.74% |
| Reagan Whitaker | 2022 | 24:59.001 race | 25:14.001 race | +1.00% |
| Jeanna Shaw | 2019 | 24:32.001 race | 24:49.001 race | +1.15% |
| Jessica Ding | 2019 | 29:38.001 race | 30:01.001 race | +1.29% |
| Natalie Kloman | 2019 | 30:40.001 race | 31:04.001 race | +1.30% |
| Joshua White | 2021 | 24:52.001 race | 25:16.001 race | +1.61% |
| Eli Helzberg | 2019 | 21:56.001 race | 22:23.001 race | +2.05% |
| Matthew Smith | 2021 | 21:46.001 race | 22:16.001 race | +2.30% |
| Mark Ryan | 2019 | 17:13.001 race | 17:37.001 race | +2.32% |
| Eliza Hartnick | 2019 | 28:41.001 race | 29:23.001 race | +2.44% |
| Larissa Wolfberg | 2019 | 25:12.001 race | 25:55.001 race | +2.84% |
| Grant Reagan-Loomis | 2019 | 22:00.001 race | 22:38.001 race | +2.88% |
| Luke Driscoll | 2022 | 20:25.001 race | 21:03.001 race | +3.10% |
| Braeden Moitoso | 2021 | 20:18.001 race | 20:58.001 race | +3.28% |
| Charlotte Torrey | 2019 | 27:57.001 race | 29:02.001 race | +3.88% |
| Buket Aktas | 2019 | 26:38.001 race | 27:43.001 race | +4.07% |
| Walt Reagan-Loomis | 2019 | 21:59.001 race | 22:56.001 race | +4.32% |
| Josephine Vogel | 2019 | 25:11.001 race | 26:18.001 race | +4.43% |
| Aidan Berger | 2021 | 20:17.001 race | 21:13.001 race | +4.60% |
| Oliver Carswell | 2019 | 22:11.001 race | 23:13.001 race | +4.66% |
| Elizabeth Strang | 2019 | 26:20.001 race | 27:38.001 race | +4.94% |
| Andrew Correia | 2019 | 22:03.001 race | 23:09.001 race | +4.99% |
| Libby Waterfall | 2019 | 25:20.001 race | 26:48.001 race | +5.79% |
| Emma Zuccotti | 2019 | 27:59.001 race | 31:02.001 race | +10.90% |
| Michelle Chen | 2019 | 30:53.001 race | 35:04.001 race | +13.55% |