Pairwise course analysis
St. Mark's School Championship Coursevs.Bouchard Park 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Bouchard Park 5K runs faster
-2.83%
Roughly 33.9 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
198
Deep evidence
Median difference
-2.04%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-2.83%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+4.50%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Bouchard Park 5K fasterEvenBouchard Park 5K slower
Confidence interval
-3.03% to -1.87%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Mark's School Championship Course | Bouchard Park 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abigail Rabieh | 2019 | 33:30.001 race | 23:53.801 race | -28.67% |
| Keira McNeil | 2023 | 34:17.001 race | 28:50.001 race | -15.90% |
| Kathryn Martin | 2022 | 27:55.001 race | 23:51.001 race | -14.57% |
| Carlos Panayiotopoulos | 2019 | 26:14.001 race | 22:56.601 race | -12.54% |
| Sylvia Brennan | 2022 | 24:09.001 race | 21:14.001 race | -12.08% |
| Alison Leiva | 2023 | 34:17.001 race | 30:41.001 race | -10.50% |
| Eliza Hirsch | 2019 | 42:34.001 race | 38:28.001 race | -9.63% |
| Natalie Kloman | 2019 | 32:26.001 race | 29:33.101 race | -8.88% |
| Gabrielle Martin | 2022 | 25:36.001 race | 23:27.001 race | -8.40% |
| Liam Peterson | 2019 | 22:17.001 race | 20:26.801 race | -8.24% |
| Ian Choe | 2022 | 27:19.004 races | 25:08.001 race | -7.99% |
| Jake Pappo | 2019 | 22:13.001 race | 20:27.101 race | -7.94% |
| Christian Hernandez | 2022 | 24:30.001 race | 22:37.001 race | -7.69% |
| Hillary Galle | 2019 | 31:45.001 race | 29:22.901 race | -7.46% |
| Naomi Hammerschlag | 2022 | 22:54.001 race | 21:16.001 race | -7.13% |
| Theo Goldman | 2019 | 22:53.001 race | 21:15.501 race | -7.10% |
| Finley Long | 2022 | 20:52.001 race | 19:25.001 race | -6.95% |
| David Xiong | 2022 | 20:26.001 race | 19:06.001 race | -6.53% |
| Pepper Taylor | 2023 | 27:20.001 race | 25:35.001 race | -6.40% |
| Diego Abadie | 2022 | 21:02.001 race | 19:42.001 race | -6.34% |
| Raymond Li | 2019 | 23:40.002 races | 22:14.101 race | -6.05% |
| Alexander Cohen | 2022 | 24:54.001 race | 23:24.001 race | -6.02% |
| Leah Jin | 2021 | 27:15.001 race | 25:37.101 race | -5.99% |
| Douglas Zhang | 2022 | 22:42.001 race | 21:21.001 race | -5.95% |
| Reagan Whitaker | 2023 | 25:03.001 race | 23:35.001 race | -5.85% |
| Abraham Tolkoff | 2019 | 20:48.002 races | 19:35.101 race | -5.84% |
| Alex Young | 2021 | 20:54.001 race | 19:41.501 race | -5.78% |
| Jeff Lei | 2022 | 24:16.003 races | 22:53.001 race | -5.70% |
| Jasmine Zhang | 2022 | 25:09.004 races | 23:43.001 race | -5.70% |
| Tess Holland | 2019 | 25:41.001 race | 24:13.501 race | -5.68% |
| Sam Modur | 2022 | 21:50.001 race | 20:36.001 race | -5.65% |
| Charlie Zhang | 2022 | 23:24.001 race | 22:06.001 race | -5.56% |
| Ryan Loughran | 2019 | 19:40.001 race | 18:34.601 race | -5.54% |
| Eliot Ragosa | 2019 | 31:45.001 race | 30:03.801 race | -5.31% |
| Ford Legg | 2022 | 20:46.001 race | 19:40.001 race | -5.30% |
| Flynn Coyne | 2022 | 23:39.001 race | 22:24.001 race | -5.29% |
| Alana Kramer-Gomez | 2022 | 23:03.001 race | 21:50.001 race | -5.28% |
| Linda Qin | 2019 | 30:35.001 race | 29:01.401 race | -5.10% |
| Lily Weinstein | 2019 | 34:08.001 race | 32:25.401 race | -5.01% |
| Charles Donahue | 2019 | 19:23.002 races | 18:26.401 race | -4.87% |
| Gabe Cooper | 2022 | 19:59.001 race | 19:01.001 race | -4.84% |
| Corrine Waters | 2019 | 23:32.001 race | 22:26.901 race | -4.61% |
| Audra Soni | 2022 | 23:37.001 race | 22:32.001 race | -4.59% |
| Max Meyerhardt | 2019 | 19:39.001 race | 18:45.701 race | -4.52% |
| Tyler Cornetta | 2021 | 20:31.001 race | 19:36.001 race | -4.47% |
| Alex Spindt | 2023 | 24:25.001 race | 23:20.001 race | -4.44% |
| Michael Cheng | 2019 | 22:50.002 races | 21:50.601 race | -4.34% |
| Aitong (Ivy) Li | 2022 | 24:07.005 races | 23:05.001 race | -4.28% |
| Cam Dailey | 2019 | 22:08.001 race | 21:11.201 race | -4.28% |
| Jacob Snell | 2022 | 19:22.004 races | 18:33.001 race | -4.22% |
| Asher Parker-Sartori | 2019 | 25:52.001 race | 24:46.701 race | -4.21% |
| Quinn Taylor | 2023 | 27:23.001 race | 26:16.001 race | -4.08% |
| Caleb Gartner | 2019 | 17:13.002 races | 16:31.601 race | -4.01% |
| Ethan Chang | 2019 | 26:09.002 races | 25:06.601 race | -3.98% |
| Andria Bao | 2022 | 24:11.004 races | 23:14.001 race | -3.93% |
| Joshua Curhan | 2022 | 20:04.001 race | 19:17.001 race | -3.90% |
| Alene Fernandes | 2019 | 22:35.001 race | 21:42.201 race | -3.90% |
| Emma Schillinger | 2022 | 24:52.005 races | 23:54.001 race | -3.89% |
| Walt Reagan-Loomis | 2019 | 22:06.001 race | 21:15.801 race | -3.79% |
| Jake Elkins | 2019 | 20:17.001 race | 19:31.301 race | -3.76% |
| Owen Dowden | 2019 | 26:34.001 race | 25:34.501 race | -3.73% |
| Hayden Gobron | 2022 | 18:24.004 races | 17:44.001 race | -3.62% |
| George Scanlon | 2022 | 22:17.001 race | 21:29.001 race | -3.59% |
| Sita Warner | 2022 | 24:53.004 races | 24:00.001 race | -3.55% |
| Calvin Smith | 2019 | 18:40.001 race | 18:00.701 race | -3.51% |
| Walker Cox | 2022 | 22:25.001 race | 21:38.001 race | -3.49% |
| Joshua Rocha | 2019 | 20:53.001 race | 20:09.601 race | -3.46% |
| Connor Cross | 2019 | 18:49.002 races | 18:10.001 race | -3.45% |
| Henry Buckley-Jones | 2021 | 18:33.001 race | 17:54.801 race | -3.43% |
| Martin Li | 2022 | 22:52.002 races | 22:05.001 race | -3.43% |
| Richard (Ricky) Li | 2019 | 22:39.002 races | 21:52.801 race | -3.40% |
| Adam Ewing | 2019 | 21:32.002 races | 20:48.601 race | -3.36% |
| Charles Chen | 2019 | 23:18.001 race | 22:31.101 race | -3.35% |
| Beckett Dubovik | 2022 | 21:45.001 race | 21:02.001 race | -3.30% |
| Emme Salyer | 2023 | 23:59.001 race | 23:13.001 race | -3.20% |
| Ford Legg | 2019 | 21:43.001 race | 21:02.601 race | -3.10% |
| Nicholas Tao | 2019 | 21:07.001 race | 20:27.901 race | -3.09% |
| Addy Vettel | 2019 | 19:48.001 race | 19:11.701 race | -3.06% |
| Ty Wilschut | 2019 | 25:39.002 races | 24:52.001 race | -3.05% |
| Dylan Zaterka | 2022 | 20:02.004 races | 19:26.001 race | -3.00% |
| Oliver Mitchell | 2019 | 25:18.002 races | 24:32.601 race | -2.99% |
| Sam Rabieh | 2019 | 18:08.001 race | 17:36.301 race | -2.91% |
| Henry Wang | 2022 | 20:02.002 races | 19:27.001 race | -2.91% |
| George Reinhardt | 2019 | 19:16.001 race | 18:43.001 race | -2.85% |
| Amanda Gary | 2019 | 24:11.001 race | 23:31.201 race | -2.74% |
| Condy Bao | 2022 | 20:25.004 races | 19:52.001 race | -2.69% |
| Ben Luo | 2019 | 22:21.002 races | 21:45.401 race | -2.65% |
| Sebastian Canizares | 2019 | 22:16.002 races | 21:41.101 race | -2.61% |
| Eli Helzberg | 2019 | 21:28.001 race | 20:54.901 race | -2.57% |
| Louis Levy | 2019 | 21:55.001 race | 21:21.901 race | -2.52% |
| Jillian Robertson | 2019 | 22:32.001 race | 21:59.601 race | -2.40% |
| Flynn Coyne | 2019 | 25:38.001 race | 25:02.401 race | -2.31% |
| Andrew Correia | 2019 | 21:36.001 race | 21:06.501 race | -2.28% |
| Cooper Austen | 2019 | 17:06.001 race | 16:42.801 race | -2.26% |
| Ines Levy | 2019 | 22:54.001 race | 22:23.401 race | -2.23% |
| Tyler Cornetta | 2019 | 21:34.001 race | 21:05.501 race | -2.20% |
| Lucas Liu | 2019 | 22:00.001 race | 21:31.001 race | -2.20% |
| James Nichols-Worley | 2022 | 20:35.005 races | 20:08.001 race | -2.19% |
| Andrew Monsalve | 2019 | 21:58.001 race | 21:30.601 race | -2.08% |
| Sawyer Helzberg | 2019 | 21:10.001 race | 20:44.501 race | -2.01% |
| Caroline Kovacs | 2022 | 20:42.001 race | 20:18.001 race | -1.93% |
| Konstantin Lukin-Yelin | 2019 | 19:34.001 race | 19:11.701 race | -1.90% |
| Sebastian Rome | 2022 | 21:46.004 races | 21:22.001 race | -1.84% |
| Amanda Gary | 2021 | 23:46.002 races | 23:20.401 race | -1.80% |
| Aidan McCormick | 2019 | 23:27.002 races | 23:02.101 race | -1.77% |
| Julian Dai | 2019 | 23:36.001 race | 23:11.201 race | -1.75% |
| Andrew Correia | 2021 | 19:55.001 race | 19:34.901 race | -1.68% |
| Grace Luettgen | 2019 | 25:05.001 race | 24:40.401 race | -1.63% |
| Camille Destefano | 2023 | 28:00.001 race | 27:35.001 race | -1.49% |
| Mark Ryan | 2019 | 17:20.001 race | 17:05.001 race | -1.44% |
| Vedant Deokar | 2019 | 21:46.002 races | 21:27.501 race | -1.42% |
| Daniel Wang | 2019 | 25:34.001 race | 25:12.401 race | -1.41% |
| AJ Gorman | 2022 | 17:23.005 races | 17:09.001 race | -1.34% |
| Eric Zhang | 2022 | 20:56.004 races | 20:40.001 race | -1.27% |
| Grant Reagan-Loomis | 2019 | 20:55.001 race | 20:39.201 race | -1.26% |
| Julian Li | 2019 | 19:05.001 race | 18:50.901 race | -1.23% |
| Sam Modur | 2019 | 23:47.001 race | 23:30.301 race | -1.17% |
| Gianluca Foschi Walko | 2019 | 20:40.001 race | 20:25.501 race | -1.17% |
| Camille Destefano | 2021 | 29:33.001 race | 29:13.601 race | -1.09% |
| Danielle Brennan | 2019 | 22:23.001 race | 22:08.401 race | -1.09% |
| Nina Douge | 2019 | 22:24.001 race | 22:10.001 race | -1.04% |
| Ellie Berman | 2019 | 24:36.001 race | 24:20.701 race | -1.04% |
| Jacob Cifuentes | 2022 | 23:07.004 races | 22:53.001 race | -1.01% |
| Julia Maimones | 2019 | 24:04.001 race | 23:49.501 race | -1.00% |
| Matt Wing | 2019 | 18:00.002 races | 17:49.201 race | -1.00% |
| Annabelle Rogers | 2019 | 21:32.001 race | 21:21.901 race | -0.78% |
| Grace Hu | 2019 | 21:14.001 race | 21:04.301 race | -0.76% |
| Zan Danoff | 2019 | 18:44.002 races | 18:35.801 race | -0.73% |
| Steven Zhang | 2022 | 18:35.005 races | 18:27.001 race | -0.72% |
| Andy Chefetz | 2019 | 24:43.002 races | 24:33.101 race | -0.67% |
| Justin O'Toole | 2019 | 16:44.001 race | 16:37.901 race | -0.61% |
| Aidan McGaugh | 2019 | 18:19.002 races | 18:12.401 race | -0.60% |
| Megan Ding | 2019 | 24:56.001 race | 24:47.201 race | -0.59% |
| Parker Lewis-Pierce | 2022 | 23:00.001 race | 22:52.001 race | -0.58% |
| Henry Horvath | 2019 | 20:35.002 races | 20:27.901 race | -0.57% |
| Gabriel Klug | 2019 | 22:02.002 races | 21:55.001 race | -0.53% |
| Arden Conine | 2019 | 24:35.001 race | 24:28.701 race | -0.43% |
| Margo Lewis | 2019 | 22:45.001 race | 22:40.401 race | -0.34% |
| Xander Starobin | 2019 | 24:58.002 races | 24:53.101 race | -0.33% |
| Sean McLaughlin | 2019 | 19:47.002 races | 19:43.501 race | -0.29% |
| Mathew Hong | 2019 | 19:28.001 race | 19:24.801 race | -0.27% |
| Daniel Bittner | 2019 | 21:31.002 races | 21:28.401 race | -0.20% |
| Jack Starobin | 2019 | 18:44.001 race | 18:42.501 race | -0.13% |
| Sreetej Digumarthi | 2019 | 20:24.002 races | 20:23.501 race | -0.04% |
| Stone Shen | 2019 | 19:45.002 races | 19:44.701 race | -0.03% |
| Christiaan Eikeboom | 2019 | 19:02.002 races | 19:02.101 race | +0.01% |
| Tyler Forg | 2019 | 20:27.002 races | 20:27.401 race | +0.03% |
| Ruby Massengale | 2019 | 28:13.001 race | 28:14.601 race | +0.09% |
| Luke Hogan | 2019 | 20:11.002 races | 20:12.201 race | +0.10% |
| Maya Sidhu | 2019 | 23:57.001 race | 23:59.601 race | +0.18% |
| Josie Silk | 2019 | 21:58.001 race | 22:00.501 race | +0.19% |
| Gavin Cassidy | 2019 | 20:01.002 races | 20:03.501 race | +0.21% |
| Thomas Romney | 2019 | 19:12.001 race | 19:14.701 race | +0.23% |
| Elizabeth Gatto | 2019 | 25:54.001 race | 25:58.301 race | +0.28% |
| Gabby Walsh | 2019 | 20:45.001 race | 20:49.001 race | +0.32% |
| Justine Lam | 2019 | 27:29.001 race | 27:34.301 race | +0.32% |
| Alex Wu | 2019 | 18:36.001 race | 18:39.801 race | +0.34% |
| Arjun Yerabothu | 2022 | 27:31.003 races | 27:38.001 race | +0.42% |
| Zane Davis | 2019 | 23:37.001 race | 23:43.301 race | +0.44% |
| Tim Cassidy | 2019 | 24:24.002 races | 24:31.501 race | +0.51% |
| Andrew Young | 2019 | 24:47.001 race | 24:54.801 race | +0.52% |
| Mac Hadden | 2019 | 17:26.002 races | 17:31.601 race | +0.54% |
| Phoebe Lu | 2019 | 25:43.001 race | 25:52.301 race | +0.60% |
| Caleb Krueger | 2019 | 18:36.002 races | 18:43.801 race | +0.70% |
| Charles Wells | 2019 | 24:59.002 races | 25:09.901 race | +0.73% |
| Peter Favero | 2019 | 18:35.002 races | 18:43.201 race | +0.74% |
| Katherine Buckhout | 2021 | 23:03.001 race | 23:13.301 race | +0.74% |
| Meena Menon | 2019 | 21:48.001 race | 21:58.101 race | +0.77% |
| Nicholas Hebard | 2019 | 22:08.002 races | 22:18.701 race | +0.81% |
| James Donahue | 2019 | 17:05.002 races | 17:13.501 race | +0.83% |
| Tim Guan | 2019 | 25:38.001 race | 25:52.101 race | +0.92% |
| Maanasi Chintamani | 2019 | 25:40.001 race | 25:54.301 race | +0.93% |
| Megan Shi | 2019 | 31:23.001 race | 31:42.201 race | +1.02% |
| Cole Zaleski | 2019 | 20:07.001 race | 20:20.101 race | +1.09% |
| Rosie Qin | 2019 | 25:47.001 race | 26:04.801 race | +1.15% |
| Samuel Lyons | 2019 | 19:30.001 race | 19:44.101 race | +1.21% |
| Ryan Cannistraro | 2019 | 26:33.002 races | 26:52.801 race | +1.24% |
| Howard Huang | 2019 | 20:47.002 races | 21:03.401 race | +1.32% |
| Mariam Craig | 2019 | 22:31.001 race | 22:52.101 race | +1.56% |
| Hanna Lapides | 2019 | 24:22.001 race | 24:45.001 race | +1.57% |
| Kaia Eckton | 2019 | 28:01.001 race | 28:27.501 race | +1.58% |
| Oliver Carswell | 2019 | 21:05.001 race | 21:25.201 race | +1.60% |
| Avery Rubins | 2019 | 24:33.001 race | 24:57.401 race | +1.66% |
| Cordelia Loomis | 2019 | 23:44.001 race | 24:08.901 race | +1.75% |
| Jeff Wang | 2022 | 24:52.002 races | 25:22.001 race | +2.01% |
| Izzy O'Brien | 2021 | 24:47.001 race | 25:20.001 race | +2.22% |
| Bennett Jones | 2022 | 17:56.004 races | 18:21.001 race | +2.32% |
| Priya Devavaeam | 2019 | 26:07.001 race | 26:46.701 race | +2.53% |
| Ray Gao | 2022 | 23:50.003 races | 24:27.001 race | +2.59% |
| Shreya Jain | 2019 | 27:41.001 race | 28:25.901 race | +2.70% |
| Mia Peng | 2019 | 26:38.001 race | 27:29.401 race | +3.22% |
| Alex Chen | 2022 | 23:25.003 races | 24:12.001 race | +3.35% |
| Charles Mullaney | 2019 | 20:13.001 race | 21:05.001 race | +4.29% |
| Oscar Caprano | 2019 | 23:46.001 race | 24:47.201 race | +4.29% |
| Hanna Lapides | 2021 | 27:31.002 races | 29:01.601 race | +5.49% |
| Amy Li | 2019 | 29:21.001 race | 30:59.101 race | +5.57% |
| Carter Hudson | 2022 | 24:53.001 race | 26:50.001 race | +7.84% |
| Cooper Wang | 2022 | 20:17.005 races | 22:29.001 race | +10.85% |