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Pairwise course analysis

St. Mark's School Championship Coursevs.NEPSTA DIII 2019 Championship Course

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

NEPSTA DIII 2019 Championship Course runs faster

-8.19%

Roughly 1:38 faster for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

48

Strong evidence

Median difference

-8.15%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

-8.19%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+3.66%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

NEPSTA DIII 2019 Championship Course fasterEvenNEPSTA DIII 2019 Championship Course slower

Confidence interval

-9.72% to -4.88%

Scale shown

-10% to +10%

Course context

The two courses

Baseline course

St. Mark's School Championship Course

4,900 meters

Compared course

NEPSTA DIII 2019 Championship Course

4,650 meters

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonSt. Mark's School Championship CourseNEPSTA DIII 2019 Championship CourseDifference
Natalie Kloman201932:26.001 race28:09.001 race-13.21%
Tegan Young201924:20.001 race21:28.001 race-11.78%
Chris Davis201918:59.001 race16:47.001 race-11.59%
Sophia Ronchetti201930:06.001 race26:41.001 race-11.35%
Crystal Xia201928:04.001 race24:53.001 race-11.34%
Max Meyerhardt201919:39.001 race17:26.001 race-11.28%
Luke Desmaison201920:46.001 race18:28.001 race-11.08%
Hannah Gidlewski201927:39.001 race24:37.001 race-10.97%
William Wilson201919:20.002 races17:13.001 race-10.95%
Angelina Liberman201927:33.001 race24:33.001 race-10.89%
Clara Choi201935:28.001 race31:39.001 race-10.76%
George Reinhardt201919:16.001 race17:15.001 race-10.47%
Brandon Christ201919:05.001 race17:06.001 race-10.39%
Luke Roosa201919:34.002 races17:35.001 race-10.14%
Amanda Gary201924:11.001 race21:45.001 race-10.06%
Owen Wang201921:20.001 race19:16.001 race-9.69%
Ana Lial201922:12.001 race20:07.001 race-9.38%
Tori Duckworth201923:12.001 race21:08.001 race-8.91%
Grace Tatirosian201923:12.002 races21:10.001 race-8.76%
Sophia Lando201924:49.001 race22:39.001 race-8.73%
Liliana Froehner201921:57.002 races20:03.001 race-8.66%
Samuel Lyons201919:30.001 race17:53.001 race-8.29%
Gabriela Alfaro Pitman201923:42.001 race21:45.001 race-8.23%
Margo Lewis201922:45.001 race20:53.001 race-8.21%
Sophia Petrovas201923:29.002 races21:35.001 race-8.09%
Jess Fatzinger201926:51.001 race24:41.001 race-8.07%
Henry Welch201918:38.002 races17:09.001 race-7.96%
Ashley Picard201923:51.001 race21:59.001 race-7.83%
Alex Tobias201918:03.001 race16:39.001 race-7.76%
Daichi Seki201920:34.001 race19:00.001 race-7.62%
Charlie Sorenson201918:56.002 races17:32.001 race-7.39%
Ethan Paek201919:25.001 race18:00.001 race-7.30%
Zoe Petrovas201922:42.002 races21:03.001 race-7.27%
Hanna Lapides201924:22.001 race22:37.001 race-7.18%
Nick Doan201919:58.001 race18:32.001 race-7.18%
Arjun Girish201920:59.001 race19:29.001 race-7.15%
Nashr El Auliya201920:42.001 race19:14.001 race-7.09%
Aristo Wang201919:50.002 races18:29.001 race-6.81%
Vanessa Shipley201923:49.001 race22:12.001 race-6.79%
Calvin Smith201918:40.001 race17:30.001 race-6.25%
Jg Hill-Edgar201919:21.002 races18:14.001 race-5.77%
James Lyman201920:51.001 race19:41.001 race-5.60%
Enock Musyoka201916:28.001 race15:34.001 race-5.47%
Gardner Brown201920:30.001 race19:26.001 race-5.20%
Mark Ryan201917:20.001 race16:27.001 race-5.10%
Tanay Kommareddi201920:52.001 race19:50.001 race-4.95%
Nate Wirth201920:02.001 race19:12.001 race-4.16%
Shaniece Nugent201925:31.001 race43:20.001 race+69.82%