Pairwise course analysis
St. Mark's School Championship Coursevs.Thayer 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Thayer 5K Course runs faster
-2.90%
Roughly 34.8 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
147
Deep evidence
Median difference
-3.75%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-2.90%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+6.27%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Thayer 5K Course fasterEvenThayer 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
-5.13% to -3.39%
Scale shown
-6% to +6%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Mark's School Championship Course | Thayer 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Kim | 2023 | 39:33.003 races | 31:00.001 race | -21.62% |
| Rileigh Murphy-Morris | 2022 | 26:35.001 race | 21:44.002 races | -18.24% |
| Jameso Flaherty-Clapham | 2022 | 33:49.001 race | 27:55.001 race | -17.45% |
| Meghan Barrett | 2023 | 37:53.002 races | 31:41.001 race | -16.37% |
| Condy Bao | 2023 | 27:39.002 races | 23:37.001 race | -14.59% |
| Amber Banks | 2021 | 25:55.001 race | 22:12.001 race | -14.34% |
| Kylie Bogar | 2022 | 30:13.002 races | 26:01.001 race | -13.90% |
| Alyssa McGuirl | 2022 | 32:57.001 race | 28:23.001 race | -13.86% |
| Ollie Seed | 2023 | 23:00.001 race | 19:52.001 race | -13.62% |
| Abby Cherry | 2021 | 28:47.001 race | 25:11.001 race | -12.51% |
| Yichen (Anna) Xing | 2023 | 34:12.003 races | 30:04.001 race | -12.09% |
| Amme Khamis | 2023 | 28:26.002 races | 25:11.001 race | -11.43% |
| Chloe Catalano | 2024 | 29:02.002 races | 25:43.001 race | -11.42% |
| Julian Yang | 2025 | 25:32.002 races | 22:39.001 race | -11.29% |
| Nathalie Westpfahl | 2021 | 26:59.001 race | 24:01.001 race | -10.99% |
| Ian Choe | 2023 | 24:25.103 races | 21:47.001 race | -10.79% |
| Virginia Thompson | 2022 | 25:11.002 races | 22:34.001 race | -10.39% |
| Colleen Leary | 2022 | 24:46.002 races | 22:13.001 race | -10.30% |
| Cate Devaney | 2022 | 25:16.002 races | 22:41.001 race | -10.22% |
| Jeff Lei | 2023 | 28:37.001 race | 25:42.001 race | -10.19% |
| Alex Xi | 2025 | 27:31.002 races | 24:43.001 race | -10.18% |
| Nathalie Pierpont | 2021 | 29:22.001 race | 26:27.001 race | -9.93% |
| Emily Bunn | 2022 | 24:00.001 race | 21:40.001 race | -9.72% |
| Ella Richards | 2022 | 24:43.002 races | 22:23.001 race | -9.44% |
| Conor Mannion | 2019 | 25:06.002 races | 22:49.001 race | -9.10% |
| Madison Hoang | 2019 | 39:26.002 races | 35:59.001 race | -8.75% |
| Charlie Gilman | 2024 | 26:21.002 races | 24:10.001 race | -8.29% |
| Martin Li | 2023 | 24:55.002 races | 22:52.001 race | -8.23% |
| Ellie Tesoro | 2023 | 28:18.002 races | 26:02.001 race | -8.01% |
| Jasmine Zhang | 2023 | 25:52.004 races | 23:52.001 race | -7.73% |
| R. Murphy | 2024 | 26:09.002 races | 24:14.001 race | -7.33% |
| Griffin Gibbs | 2019 | 23:14.002 races | 21:32.001 race | -7.32% |
| Alyssa McGuirl | 2024 | 26:39.002 races | 24:44.001 race | -7.19% |
| William Kim | 2025 | 21:23.002 races | 19:53.001 race | -7.01% |
| Mia McLean | 2021 | 23:19.001 race | 21:44.001 race | -6.79% |
| Seamus McFarland | 2025 | 21:22.001 race | 19:56.001 race | -6.71% |
| Kylie Bogar | 2021 | 32:33.001 race | 30:23.001 race | -6.66% |
| Maddie Stearns | 2021 | 23:07.001 race | 21:35.001 race | -6.63% |
| Brooke Hansen | 2022 | 23:10.001 race | 21:39.001 race | -6.55% |
| Tommy Bi | 2021 | 23:35.001 race | 22:03.002 races | -6.50% |
| Alex Chen | 2023 | 25:35.002 races | 23:57.001 race | -6.38% |
| Alexa Adams | 2022 | 25:55.002 races | 24:16.001 race | -6.37% |
| Jacob Snell | 2023 | 20:19.002 races | 19:02.001 race | -6.32% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2021 | 23:11.001 race | 21:44.001 race | -6.25% |
| Jacob Cifuentes | 2023 | 23:06.503 races | 21:41.001 race | -6.17% |
| Eloise Daniello | 2021 | 23:13.001 race | 21:48.001 race | -6.10% |
| Brooke Hansen | 2021 | 23:18.001 race | 21:53.001 race | -6.08% |
| Alexa Adams | 2021 | 27:04.001 race | 25:26.001 race | -6.03% |
| Quinn Bartling | 2025 | 21:24.001 race | 20:09.001 race | -5.84% |
| Megan Corry | 2021 | 23:13.001 race | 21:53.001 race | -5.74% |
| Vanessa Leung | 2023 | 29:10.004 races | 27:32.001 race | -5.60% |
| Alexa Adams | 2024 | 24:10.002 races | 22:50.001 race | -5.52% |
| Elisabeth Marota | 2019 | 33:35.003 races | 31:45.001 race | -5.46% |
| Gryffin Daley | 2025 | 19:39.002 races | 18:35.001 race | -5.43% |
| Ingrid Yeung | 2019 | 27:53.003 races | 26:24.001 race | -5.32% |
| Annabel McNamara | 2022 | 27:15.001 race | 25:49.001 race | -5.26% |
| Paula Hornbostel | 2019 | 29:33.004 races | 28:00.001 race | -5.25% |
| Kenzie Murphy | 2024 | 23:11.001 race | 21:59.001 race | -5.18% |
| Machias Poreda | 2023 | 21:00.703 races | 19:57.001 race | -5.05% |
| Chloe Clifford | 2021 | 21:19.001 race | 20:15.001 race | -5.00% |
| Aitong (Ivy) Li | 2019 | 27:47.004 races | 26:25.001 race | -4.92% |
| Yiran Hu | 2023 | 23:44.002 races | 22:37.001 race | -4.71% |
| Kaitie Donahue | 2024 | 25:51.002 races | 24:40.001 race | -4.58% |
| Nick Song | 2025 | 24:01.902 races | 22:57.001 race | -4.50% |
| Dylan Zaterka | 2023 | 20:37.703 races | 19:42.001 race | -4.50% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2022 | 22:20.002 races | 21:21.001 race | -4.40% |
| Brendan Brosnan | 2022 | 20:53.001 race | 19:59.001 race | -4.31% |
| J. Wei | 2019 | 28:37.003 races | 27:24.001 race | -4.25% |
| Suha Choi | 2019 | 30:44.002 races | 29:26.001 race | -4.23% |
| Benjamin Koper | 2021 | 21:54.001 race | 21:00.002 races | -4.11% |
| Ashley Battiata | 2019 | 28:18.004 races | 27:10.001 race | -4.00% |
| Padma Mynampaty | 2019 | 34:08.004 races | 32:46.001 race | -4.00% |
| Isaiah Raore | 2023 | 22:29.002 races | 21:38.001 race | -3.78% |
| Alice Wang | 2023 | 28:02.004 races | 26:59.001 race | -3.75% |
| Renee Martell | 2024 | 27:15.002 races | 26:14.001 race | -3.73% |
| Katie Wipf | 2022 | 22:19.002 races | 21:31.001 race | -3.58% |
| Caitlyn Hsu | 2024 | 25:55.002 races | 25:00.001 race | -3.54% |
| Katie Wipf | 2021 | 21:44.001 race | 20:59.001 race | -3.45% |
| Sooah (Sua) Yoo | 2023 | 26:02.004 races | 25:09.001 race | -3.39% |
| Helena Xie | 2019 | 27:03.003 races | 26:08.001 race | -3.39% |
| James Pener | 2021 | 18:46.001 race | 18:10.002 races | -3.20% |
| Jason Tae | 2025 | 23:43.002 races | 22:58.001 race | -3.16% |
| Connor Keleher | 2025 | 21:49.001 race | 21:08.001 race | -3.13% |
| Peter Chen | 2022 | 21:24.002 races | 20:44.001 race | -3.12% |
| Garner Thompson | 2019 | 20:04.002 races | 19:27.001 race | -3.07% |
| Alex Mao | 2025 | 22:15.002 races | 21:34.001 race | -3.07% |
| Emily Taylor | 2019 | 26:16.004 races | 25:29.001 race | -2.98% |
| Oliver Massey | 2025 | 19:48.001 race | 19:15.001 race | -2.78% |
| Hei Tung (Joanna) Ng | 2023 | 25:28.004 races | 24:48.001 race | -2.62% |
| Jaime Li | 2023 | 24:40.003 races | 24:02.001 race | -2.57% |
| Fiji Chen | 2025 | 21:42.002 races | 21:10.001 race | -2.46% |
| Paige La Malva | 2019 | 26:49.004 races | 26:10.001 race | -2.42% |
| Evan Schneider | 2022 | 21:42.002 races | 21:12.001 race | -2.30% |
| Luke Driscoll | 2024 | 20:08.002 races | 19:41.001 race | -2.24% |
| Ryan Chiari | 2021 | 19:04.001 race | 18:39.002 races | -2.19% |
| Seunghyeon (Karry) Kim | 2023 | 27:37.004 races | 27:03.001 race | -2.05% |
| Calvin Jacobs | 2025 | 19:18.001 race | 18:58.001 race | -1.73% |
| Eric Zhang | 2023 | 21:41.303 races | 21:19.001 race | -1.71% |
| Theodore Dowd | 2024 | 19:05.002 races | 18:46.001 race | -1.66% |
| Lily Walsh | 2019 | 26:04.004 races | 25:39.001 race | -1.60% |
| K. LeBlanc | 2019 | 26:17.002 races | 25:52.001 race | -1.59% |
| Owen Haskell | 2025 | 19:13.001 race | 18:55.001 race | -1.56% |
| Aidan Humphreys | 2019 | 20:18.002 races | 20:04.001 race | -1.15% |
| Evan Schneider | 2024 | 19:51.001 race | 19:38.001 race | -1.09% |
| Charlotte Lokere | 2021 | 31:30.001 race | 31:10.001 race | -1.06% |
| Brendan Brosnan | 2024 | 18:00.001 race | 17:49.001 race | -1.02% |
| Hope Xayaveth | 2019 | 29:45.003 races | 29:28.001 race | -0.95% |
| Jaclyn Zatsiorsky | 2019 | 29:41.004 races | 29:25.001 race | -0.90% |
| Steven Silvers | 2024 | 19:13.002 races | 19:03.001 race | -0.87% |
| Colleen Leary | 2021 | 23:47.001 race | 23:35.001 race | -0.84% |
| Robert Peirce | 2024 | 22:23.001 race | 22:13.001 race | -0.74% |
| Alec Borges | 2019 | 21:10.001 race | 21:01.001 race | -0.71% |
| Virginia Thompson | 2021 | 25:21.001 race | 25:11.001 race | -0.66% |
| Dylan Crawford | 2024 | 19:42.002 races | 19:37.001 race | -0.42% |
| A. Fleming | 2023 | 23:17.003 races | 23:12.001 race | -0.36% |
| Quinn Bartling | 2024 | 21:42.002 races | 21:38.001 race | -0.31% |
| Henry Wang | 2023 | 19:54.503 races | 19:53.001 race | -0.13% |
| Diya Bhaireddy | 2023 | 29:34.003 races | 29:35.001 race | +0.06% |
| Isabella Murray | 2019 | 34:33.004 races | 34:35.001 race | +0.10% |
| Jaden Smith | 2021 | 20:26.001 race | 20:29.002 races | +0.24% |
| Anouk Shin | 2023 | 26:34.003 races | 26:39.001 race | +0.31% |
| Dylan Crawford | 2025 | 19:26.001 race | 19:31.001 race | +0.43% |
| Connor Keleher | 2024 | 23:01.001 race | 23:08.001 race | +0.51% |
| Grant Coldren | 2019 | 20:08.002 races | 20:16.001 race | +0.66% |
| Caitlin Fitzgerald | 2021 | 22:30.001 race | 22:42.001 race | +0.89% |
| Theodore Dowd | 2021 | 26:13.001 race | 26:27.002 races | +0.89% |
| Aly Mantville | 2021 | 25:03.001 race | 25:17.001 race | +0.93% |
| KJ Irving | 2025 | 22:55.001 race | 23:12.001 race | +1.24% |
| Charlie Poulin | 2019 | 33:28.004 races | 33:57.001 race | +1.44% |
| Chen-An Lin | 2021 | 28:26.001 race | 28:52.001 race | +1.52% |
| Benjamin Koper | 2019 | 20:31.002 races | 20:52.001 race | +1.71% |
| Weixin (Wendy) Wu | 2023 | 26:42.002 races | 27:10.001 race | +1.75% |
| Luke Driscoll | 2022 | 20:41.002 races | 21:03.001 race | +1.77% |
| Ryan Chiari | 2019 | 20:13.002 races | 20:36.001 race | +1.90% |
| Rileigh Murphy-Morris | 2021 | 27:43.001 race | 28:17.001 race | +2.04% |
| Steven Zhang | 2023 | 18:47.703 races | 19:13.001 race | +2.24% |
| Tony Yin | 2024 | 23:57.002 races | 24:30.001 race | +2.30% |
| Peter Chen | 2021 | 22:58.001 race | 23:31.002 races | +2.39% |
| Isaiah Raore | 2025 | 18:13.002 races | 18:41.001 race | +2.56% |
| Feifei Cao | 2023 | 30:43.004 races | 31:34.001 race | +2.77% |
| Sunny Li | 2019 | 30:12.004 races | 31:11.001 race | +3.26% |
| Princess Alexander | 2019 | 28:05.004 races | 29:09.001 race | +3.80% |
| Brandon Abell | 2025 | 21:03.001 race | 21:57.001 race | +4.28% |
| Michael Scully | 2021 | 21:38.001 race | 22:40.002 races | +4.78% |
| Isabella (Izzy) Mundel | 2023 | 28:40.004 races | 30:59.001 race | +8.08% |
| Jiayi Yu | 2019 | 28:48.004 races | 31:10.001 race | +8.22% |
| Eli Kream | 2019 | 23:42.002 races | 27:30.001 race | +16.03% |