Pairwise course analysis
St. Sebastian's 5K Coursevs.Thayer 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Thayer 5K Course runs faster
-5.72%
Roughly 1:09 faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
11
Limited evidence
Median difference
-7.29%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-5.72%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+2.15%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-7.81% to -5.83%
Scale shown
-8% to +8%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Sebastian's 5K Course | Thayer 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jang | 2022 | 20:22.001 race | 18:34.001 race | -8.84% |
| Eli Helzberg | 2022 | 22:20.001 race | 20:22.001 race | -8.81% |
| Sam Blank | 2022 | 21:53.001 race | 20:10.001 race | -7.84% |
| Samuel Lyons | 2022 | 18:48.001 race | 17:20.001 race | -7.80% |
| Jason Minicozzi | 2022 | 20:05.001 race | 18:32.001 race | -7.72% |
| Tyler Cornetta | 2022 | 21:16.001 race | 19:43.001 race | -7.29% |
| Henry Buckley-Jones | 2022 | 18:27.001 race | 17:13.001 race | -6.68% |
| Andrew Young | 2022 | 21:12.001 race | 19:55.001 race | -6.05% |
| Alex Young | 2022 | 20:07.001 race | 18:59.001 race | -5.63% |
| Heng Leong | 2022 | 21:51.001 race | 20:49.001 race | -4.73% |
| Andrew Correia | 2022 | 22:18.001 race | 21:31.001 race | -3.51% |