Pairwise course analysis
Thayer 5K Coursevs.Groton School
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Groton School runs slower
+0.74%
Roughly 8.9 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
62
Strong evidence
Median difference
+1.21%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+0.74%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+7.92%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Groton School fasterEvenGroton School slower
Confidence interval
-1.85% to +1.15%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Thayer 5K Course | Groton School | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Megan Shi | 2019 | 39:27.001 race | 31:39.001 race | -19.77% |
| Amy Li | 2019 | 33:31.001 race | 29:40.001 race | -11.49% |
| Lily Weinstein | 2019 | 39:34.001 race | 35:08.001 race | -11.20% |
| Mia Peng | 2019 | 29:57.001 race | 27:20.001 race | -8.74% |
| Grace Luettgen | 2019 | 26:32.001 race | 24:23.001 race | -8.10% |
| Laura Hoffmann | 2019 | 28:44.001 race | 26:35.001 race | -7.48% |
| Elizabeth Gatto | 2019 | 27:31.001 race | 25:36.001 race | -6.97% |
| Charlotte Wolford | 2019 | 31:07.001 race | 28:58.001 race | -6.91% |
| Josie Silk | 2019 | 23:56.001 race | 22:18.001 race | -6.82% |
| Linda Qin | 2019 | 31:27.001 race | 29:22.001 race | -6.62% |
| Phoebe Lu | 2019 | 26:42.001 race | 24:56.001 race | -6.62% |
| Justine Lam | 2019 | 30:35.001 race | 28:35.001 race | -6.54% |
| Rosie Qin | 2019 | 26:49.001 race | 25:12.001 race | -6.03% |
| Maanasi Chintamani | 2019 | 26:29.001 race | 25:08.001 race | -5.10% |
| Rachel Solomon | 2019 | 34:24.001 race | 32:54.001 race | -4.36% |
| Amelia Stevens | 2019 | 25:17.001 race | 24:16.001 race | -4.02% |
| Eliza Hirsch | 2019 | 41:22.001 race | 39:46.001 race | -3.87% |
| Erin Green | 2022 | 25:45.001 race | 24:58.001 race | -3.04% |
| Theodore Dowd | 2024 | 18:46.001 race | 18:13.001 race | -2.93% |
| Chloe Catalano | 2024 | 25:43.001 race | 24:58.001 race | -2.92% |
| Steven Silvers | 2024 | 19:03.001 race | 18:34.001 race | -2.54% |
| Tony Yin | 2024 | 24:30.001 race | 23:57.001 race | -2.24% |
| Shreya Jain | 2019 | 27:51.001 race | 27:30.001 race | -1.26% |
| Oliver Massey | 2024 | 21:15.001 race | 21:02.001 race | -1.02% |
| Luke Driscoll | 2024 | 19:41.001 race | 19:29.001 race | -1.02% |
| Maya Sidhu | 2019 | 24:52.001 race | 24:42.001 race | -0.67% |
| Alexa Adams | 2024 | 22:50.001 race | 22:50.001 race | 0.00% |
| Breanna Kunkel | 2022 | 22:10.001 race | 22:11.001 race | +0.08% |
| Evan Schneider | 2024 | 19:38.001 race | 19:41.001 race | +0.25% |
| Kaitie Donahue | 2024 | 24:40.001 race | 24:46.001 race | +0.41% |
| John Brice | 2022 | 20:55.001 race | 21:09.001 race | +1.12% |
| Alexa Adams | 2022 | 24:16.001 race | 24:35.001 race | +1.30% |
| Caitlyn Hsu | 2024 | 25:00.001 race | 25:21.001 race | +1.40% |
| Brendan Brosnan | 2024 | 17:49.001 race | 18:04.001 race | +1.40% |
| Dylan Crawford | 2024 | 19:37.001 race | 19:56.001 race | +1.61% |
| Alyssa McGuirl | 2024 | 24:44.001 race | 25:09.001 race | +1.68% |
| Brendan Brosnan | 2022 | 19:59.001 race | 20:23.001 race | +2.00% |
| Renee Martell | 2024 | 26:14.001 race | 26:46.001 race | +2.03% |
| Luke Driscoll | 2022 | 21:03.001 race | 21:30.001 race | +2.14% |
| Katie Wipf | 2022 | 21:31.001 race | 22:01.001 race | +2.32% |
| Connor Keleher | 2024 | 23:08.001 race | 23:41.001 race | +2.38% |
| Conor Mannion | 2022 | 21:26.001 race | 22:00.001 race | +2.64% |
| Evan Schneider | 2022 | 21:12.001 race | 21:48.001 race | +2.83% |
| Quinn Bartling | 2024 | 21:38.001 race | 22:17.001 race | +3.00% |
| Alaina Millian | 2024 | 25:10.001 race | 25:56.001 race | +3.05% |
| Brooke Hansen | 2022 | 21:39.001 race | 22:21.001 race | +3.23% |
| Theodore Dowd | 2022 | 21:46.001 race | 22:35.001 race | +3.75% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2022 | 21:21.001 race | 22:11.001 race | +3.90% |
| R. Murphy | 2024 | 24:14.001 race | 25:15.001 race | +4.20% |
| Colleen Leary | 2022 | 22:13.001 race | 23:12.001 race | +4.43% |
| Jameso Flaherty-Clapham | 2022 | 27:55.001 race | 29:11.001 race | +4.54% |
| Kenzie Murphy | 2024 | 21:59.001 race | 23:01.001 race | +4.70% |
| Connor Bragg | 2024 | 22:51.001 race | 23:56.001 race | +4.74% |
| Kylie Bogar | 2022 | 26:01.001 race | 27:21.001 race | +5.12% |
| Tommy Bi | 2022 | 21:03.001 race | 22:08.001 race | +5.15% |
| Madeline Pike | 2022 | 22:18.001 race | 23:33.001 race | +5.61% |
| Alexa Meekins | 2022 | 28:12.001 race | 29:50.001 race | +5.79% |
| Maddie Stearns | 2022 | 22:39.001 race | 24:18.001 race | +7.28% |
| Charlie Gilman | 2024 | 24:10.001 race | 26:08.001 race | +8.14% |
| Alyssa McGuirl | 2022 | 28:23.001 race | 31:21.001 race | +10.45% |
| Virginia Thompson | 2022 | 22:34.001 race | 25:01.001 race | +10.86% |
| Rileigh Murphy-Morris | 2022 | 21:44.002 races | 24:37.001 race | +13.27% |