Pairwise course analysis
Thayer 5K Coursevs.Milton Standard 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Milton Standard 5K runs slower
+1.25%
Roughly 15.0 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
62
Strong evidence
Median difference
+2.60%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+1.25%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+4.44%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Milton Standard 5K fasterEvenMilton Standard 5K slower
Confidence interval
+1.54% to +4.46%
Scale shown
-6% to +6%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Thayer 5K Course | Milton Standard 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Pasquale | 2021 | 31:26.001 race | 26:26.001 race | -15.91% |
| Benzo Zhou | 2021 | 21:03.001 race | 20:11.001 race | -4.12% |
| Jaden Smith | 2023 | 19:22.001 race | 18:41.001 race | -3.53% |
| Kevin Yao | 2021 | 25:14.002 races | 24:43.001 race | -2.05% |
| Lindsey Bennett | 2023 | 22:49.001 race | 22:22.001 race | -1.97% |
| Aiden English | 2021 | 23:16.001 race | 22:50.001 race | -1.86% |
| Lily Heaton | 2023 | 26:16.001 race | 25:49.001 race | -1.71% |
| Annabel McNamara | 2023 | 26:33.001 race | 26:06.001 race | -1.69% |
| Benjamin Koper | 2021 | 21:00.002 races | 20:40.001 race | -1.59% |
| Erin Green | 2023 | 26:19.001 race | 25:54.001 race | -1.58% |
| Ryan Chiari | 2021 | 18:39.002 races | 18:32.001 race | -0.63% |
| Sebastian Keleher | 2023 | 23:00.001 race | 22:53.001 race | -0.51% |
| James Pener | 2021 | 18:10.002 races | 18:07.001 race | -0.28% |
| Jaden Smith | 2021 | 20:29.002 races | 20:27.001 race | -0.16% |
| Kenzie Murphy | 2023 | 21:41.001 race | 21:41.001 race | 0.00% |
| Angelina Hammerschlag | 2022 | 24:22.001 race | 24:22.001 race | 0.00% |
| Aidan Humphreys | 2021 | 19:39.002 races | 19:40.001 race | +0.08% |
| Christian MacCallum | 2023 | 19:37.001 race | 19:38.001 race | +0.08% |
| Evan Schneider | 2023 | 21:47.001 race | 21:51.001 race | +0.31% |
| Aleah Ghiasuddin | 2021 | 22:42.001 race | 22:52.001 race | +0.73% |
| Bruin Brayshaw | 2021 | 23:21.001 race | 23:33.001 race | +0.86% |
| Ava Palazzolo | 2022 | 22:17.001 race | 22:29.001 race | +0.90% |
| Brendan Brosnan | 2023 | 18:48.001 race | 18:59.001 race | +0.98% |
| Bear Brooks | 2021 | 16:58.001 race | 17:10.001 race | +1.18% |
| Ross Tejeda | 2021 | 16:39.002 races | 16:56.001 race | +1.70% |
| Izzy O'Brien | 2022 | 25:34.001 race | 26:03.001 race | +1.89% |
| Caitlin Fitzgerald | 2021 | 22:42.001 race | 23:08.001 race | +1.91% |
| Brooke Hansen | 2023 | 22:53.001 race | 23:22.001 race | +2.11% |
| Katie Wipf | 2021 | 20:59.001 race | 21:27.001 race | +2.22% |
| Mia McLean | 2021 | 21:44.001 race | 22:17.001 race | +2.53% |
| Chloe Catalano | 2023 | 26:20.001 race | 27:00.001 race | +2.53% |
| Brooke Hansen | 2021 | 21:53.001 race | 22:28.001 race | +2.67% |
| Chloe Clifford | 2021 | 20:15.001 race | 20:54.001 race | +3.21% |
| Steven Silvers | 2023 | 19:03.001 race | 19:40.001 race | +3.24% |
| Maggie Crowley | 2022 | 21:33.001 race | 22:15.001 race | +3.25% |
| Jake Devries | 2023 | 20:00.001 race | 20:39.001 race | +3.25% |
| Luke Driscoll | 2023 | 19:15.001 race | 19:53.001 race | +3.29% |
| Juliana Lynch | 2022 | 25:01.001 race | 25:52.001 race | +3.40% |
| Rileigh Murphy-Morris | 2023 | 27:50.001 race | 28:48.001 race | +3.47% |
| Maddie Stearns | 2021 | 21:35.001 race | 22:21.001 race | +3.55% |
| Megan Corry | 2021 | 21:53.001 race | 22:40.001 race | +3.58% |
| Brian Zheng | 2021 | 22:05.001 race | 22:55.001 race | +3.77% |
| Cora Knoell | 2021 | 24:33.001 race | 25:29.001 race | +3.80% |
| Cate Devaney | 2023 | 22:51.001 race | 23:45.001 race | +3.94% |
| Mairin Anderson | 2022 | 24:49.001 race | 25:50.001 race | +4.10% |
| Charlie Gilman | 2023 | 25:12.001 race | 26:18.001 race | +4.37% |
| Colleen Leary | 2023 | 23:00.001 race | 24:02.001 race | +4.49% |
| Luke Driscoll | 2021 | 21:02.002 races | 21:59.001 race | +4.52% |
| Eloise Daniello | 2021 | 21:48.001 race | 22:54.001 race | +5.05% |
| Breanna Kunkel | 2023 | 21:56.001 race | 23:07.001 race | +5.40% |
| Alexa Meekins | 2023 | 25:01.001 race | 26:37.001 race | +6.40% |
| Megan Corry | 2023 | 23:42.001 race | 25:17.001 race | +6.68% |
| Camille Destefano | 2022 | 26:12.001 race | 28:01.001 race | +6.93% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2021 | 21:44.001 race | 23:20.001 race | +7.36% |
| John Brice | 2023 | 21:12.001 race | 22:47.001 race | +7.47% |
| Natalie Kloman | 2022 | 26:01.001 race | 28:00.001 race | +7.62% |
| Taylor Ehler | 2022 | 30:25.001 race | 32:45.001 race | +7.67% |
| Alyssa McGuirl | 2023 | 26:06.001 race | 28:49.001 race | +10.41% |
| Tony Yin | 2023 | 23:23.001 race | 25:59.001 race | +11.12% |
| Kiera Furness | 2023 | 25:36.001 race | 31:00.001 race | +21.09% |
| Valentina Joseph | 2022 | 26:43.001 race | 32:48.001 race | +22.77% |
| Alexa Adams | 2023 | 22:53.001 race | 28:43.001 race | +25.49% |