Pairwise course analysis
Thayer 5K Coursevs.RL 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
RL 5K Course runs slower
+6.40%
Roughly 1:17 slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
77
Strong evidence
Median difference
+6.43%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+6.40%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+5.15%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
RL 5K Course fasterEvenRL 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
+4.45% to +6.50%
Scale shown
-8% to +8%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Thayer 5K Course | RL 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Farmer | 2019 | 34:37.002 races | 32:31.001 race | -6.07% |
| Eli Kream | 2019 | 27:30.001 race | 25:50.001 race | -6.06% |
| A Raycroft | 2019 | 30:43.002 races | 29:03.001 race | -5.43% |
| Gigi Gillard | 2019 | 33:48.002 races | 32:05.001 race | -5.08% |
| Michael Scully | 2021 | 22:40.002 races | 21:51.001 race | -3.60% |
| Emily English | 2019 | 27:27.002 races | 26:34.001 race | -3.22% |
| Jonah Rothman | 2019 | 25:12.001 race | 24:51.001 race | -1.39% |
| G Quealy | 2019 | 28:08.002 races | 27:47.001 race | -1.24% |
| Ally Gilbert | 2019 | 27:24.002 races | 27:09.001 race | -0.91% |
| Ryan Chiari | 2019 | 20:36.001 race | 20:42.001 race | +0.49% |
| Aidan Humphreys | 2021 | 19:39.002 races | 19:57.001 race | +1.53% |
| Colleen Leary | 2021 | 23:35.001 race | 24:01.001 race | +1.84% |
| Luke Driscoll | 2021 | 21:02.002 races | 21:30.001 race | +2.22% |
| Jaden Smith | 2023 | 19:22.001 race | 19:51.002 races | +2.50% |
| Steven Zhang | 2023 | 19:13.001 race | 19:43.001 race | +2.60% |
| Annabel McNamara | 2023 | 26:33.001 race | 27:17.002 races | +2.76% |
| Ryan Chiari | 2021 | 18:39.002 races | 19:12.001 race | +2.95% |
| Luke Driscoll | 2023 | 19:15.001 race | 19:51.002 races | +3.12% |
| James Pener | 2021 | 18:10.002 races | 18:44.001 race | +3.12% |
| Hadley Stanton | 2019 | 25:28.001 race | 26:16.001 race | +3.14% |
| Eloise Daniello | 2019 | 21:55.001 race | 22:40.001 race | +3.42% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2019 | 21:52.001 race | 22:37.001 race | +3.43% |
| Benjamin Koper | 2019 | 20:52.001 race | 21:35.001 race | +3.43% |
| Kylie Bogar | 2019 | 27:57.002 races | 28:56.001 race | +3.52% |
| Virginia Thompson | 2019 | 27:03.002 races | 28:08.001 race | +4.00% |
| Steven Silvers | 2023 | 19:03.001 race | 19:55.002 races | +4.55% |
| Meg Dugan | 2019 | 20:23.001 race | 21:19.001 race | +4.58% |
| Aidan Humphreys | 2019 | 20:04.001 race | 21:00.001 race | +4.65% |
| Brendan Brosnan | 2023 | 18:48.001 race | 19:41.002 races | +4.70% |
| Benjamin Koper | 2021 | 21:00.002 races | 22:01.001 race | +4.84% |
| Sebastian Keleher | 2023 | 23:00.001 race | 24:12.002 races | +5.22% |
| Lilly Bradley | 2019 | 19:58.002 races | 21:04.001 race | +5.51% |
| Meghan Webb | 2019 | 21:56.001 race | 23:12.001 race | +5.78% |
| Eric Zhang | 2023 | 21:19.001 race | 22:34.001 race | +5.86% |
| Maddie Stearns | 2021 | 21:35.001 race | 22:53.001 race | +6.02% |
| Samantha Noonan | 2019 | 25:30.001 race | 27:03.001 race | +6.08% |
| Jacob Snell | 2023 | 19:02.001 race | 20:12.001 race | +6.13% |
| Mia McLean | 2021 | 21:44.001 race | 23:07.001 race | +6.37% |
| Katie Wipf | 2021 | 20:59.001 race | 22:20.001 race | +6.43% |
| Katie Wipf | 2019 | 22:57.001 race | 24:28.001 race | +6.61% |
| Alena Mulhern | 2019 | 24:45.001 race | 26:24.001 race | +6.67% |
| Kenzie Murphy | 2023 | 21:41.001 race | 23:09.002 races | +6.76% |
| Evan Schneider | 2023 | 21:47.001 race | 23:16.002 races | +6.81% |
| Jake Devries | 2023 | 20:00.001 race | 21:27.002 races | +7.25% |
| Henry Wang | 2023 | 19:53.001 race | 21:20.001 race | +7.29% |
| Brooke Hansen | 2021 | 21:53.001 race | 23:29.001 race | +7.31% |
| Colleen Leary | 2023 | 23:00.001 race | 24:41.001 race | +7.32% |
| Cate Devaney | 2023 | 22:51.001 race | 24:32.002 races | +7.37% |
| Christian MacCallum | 2023 | 19:37.001 race | 21:05.001 race | +7.48% |
| Isaiah Raore | 2023 | 21:38.001 race | 23:17.001 race | +7.63% |
| Grant Coldren | 2019 | 20:16.001 race | 21:49.001 race | +7.65% |
| Lindsey Bennett | 2023 | 22:49.001 race | 24:35.002 races | +7.74% |
| Erin Green | 2023 | 26:19.001 race | 28:24.001 race | +7.92% |
| Lily Heaton | 2023 | 26:16.001 race | 28:21.001 race | +7.93% |
| Grace Stanton | 2019 | 23:32.001 race | 25:26.001 race | +8.07% |
| Megan Corry | 2021 | 21:53.001 race | 23:40.001 race | +8.15% |
| Maddie Stearns | 2019 | 23:33.001 race | 25:29.001 race | +8.21% |
| Alexa Adams | 2023 | 22:53.001 race | 24:49.002 races | +8.45% |
| Ross Tejeda | 2021 | 16:39.002 races | 18:04.001 race | +8.51% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2021 | 21:44.001 race | 23:36.001 race | +8.59% |
| Tommy Gaffey | 2019 | 16:21.001 race | 17:46.001 race | +8.66% |
| Machias Poreda | 2023 | 19:57.001 race | 21:41.001 race | +8.69% |
| Rileigh Murphy-Morris | 2023 | 27:50.001 race | 30:16.002 races | +8.74% |
| Megan Corry | 2023 | 23:42.001 race | 25:50.002 races | +9.00% |
| Chloe Catalano | 2023 | 26:20.001 race | 28:44.002 races | +9.11% |
| Ryan Noreke | 2023 | 19:47.001 race | 21:39.002 races | +9.44% |
| Chloe Clifford | 2021 | 20:15.001 race | 22:10.001 race | +9.47% |
| Eloise Daniello | 2021 | 21:48.001 race | 23:55.001 race | +9.71% |
| Dylan Zaterka | 2023 | 19:42.001 race | 21:40.001 race | +9.98% |
| Breanna Kunkel | 2023 | 21:56.001 race | 24:08.002 races | +10.03% |
| Caitlin Fitzgerald | 2021 | 22:42.001 race | 25:13.001 race | +11.09% |
| Garner Thompson | 2019 | 19:27.001 race | 21:41.001 race | +11.48% |
| Brooke Hansen | 2023 | 22:53.001 race | 25:33.002 races | +11.65% |
| Alexa Meekins | 2023 | 25:01.001 race | 28:03.002 races | +12.13% |
| Theodore Dowd | 2023 | 19:04.001 race | 21:39.002 races | +13.55% |
| Alyssa McGuirl | 2023 | 26:06.001 race | 29:49.002 races | +14.24% |
| John Brice | 2023 | 21:12.001 race | 24:15.002 races | +14.39% |