Pairwise course analysis
Thayer 5K Coursevs.Rock Meadow Short Loop 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Rock Meadow Short Loop 5K runs slower
+3.29%
Roughly 39.5 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
23
Developing evidence
Median difference
-0.30%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+3.29%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.21%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-0.85% to +1.49%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Thayer 5K Course | Rock Meadow Short Loop 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davin Roy | 2021 | 24:59.001 race | 23:52.001 race | -4.47% |
| Gabriel Klug | 2021 | 24:27.001 race | 23:28.001 race | -4.02% |
| Carver Porter | 2021 | 22:13.001 race | 21:29.001 race | -3.30% |
| Duncan Kilbride | 2021 | 20:53.001 race | 20:26.001 race | -2.15% |
| Paris Liston | 2021 | 20:37.001 race | 20:12.001 race | -2.02% |
| David Carter | 2021 | 20:20.001 race | 20:05.001 race | -1.23% |
| Jeremy Eaton | 2021 | 21:17.001 race | 21:02.001 race | -1.17% |
| Andrew Bittner | 2021 | 21:58.001 race | 21:46.001 race | -0.91% |
| Daniel Xie | 2021 | 22:36.001 race | 22:24.001 race | -0.88% |
| Jackson Pagan | 2021 | 20:10.001 race | 20:04.001 race | -0.50% |
| Michael Bobo | 2021 | 22:01.001 race | 21:55.001 race | -0.45% |
| Reuben Siegel | 2021 | 22:27.001 race | 22:23.001 race | -0.30% |
| Nathaniel Voss | 2021 | 19:19.001 race | 19:24.001 race | +0.43% |
| Gabriel Simmons | 2021 | 21:30.001 race | 21:37.001 race | +0.54% |
| Charles Geddes | 2021 | 22:00.001 race | 22:08.001 race | +0.61% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2021 | 19:10.001 race | 19:21.001 race | +0.96% |
| Howard Huang | 2021 | 22:22.001 race | 22:40.001 race | +1.34% |
| Ezra Lee | 2021 | 19:14.001 race | 19:44.001 race | +2.60% |
| Aaron Stanger | 2021 | 18:31.001 race | 19:07.001 race | +3.24% |
| Angus Harrison | 2021 | 19:23.001 race | 20:02.001 race | +3.35% |
| William Trautz | 2021 | 17:46.001 race | 18:29.001 race | +4.03% |
| Miles Sandoski | 2021 | 16:46.001 race | 17:47.001 race | +6.06% |
| Joshua Houston-Davis | 2021 | 21:58.001 race | 23:21.001 race | +6.30% |