Pairwise course analysis
Thayer 5K Coursevs.Washington Park 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Washington Park 5K Course runs slower
+0.65%
Roughly 7.8 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
119
Deep evidence
Median difference
+0.54%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+0.65%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+7.62%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Washington Park 5K Course fasterEvenWashington Park 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
-1.75% to +0.62%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Thayer 5K Course | Washington Park 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Poulin | 2019 | 33:57.001 race | 26:58.001 race | -20.57% |
| Erin Farmer | 2019 | 34:37.002 races | 28:10.001 race | -18.63% |
| Gigi Gillard | 2019 | 33:48.002 races | 27:41.001 race | -18.10% |
| Eli Kream | 2019 | 27:30.001 race | 22:35.001 race | -17.88% |
| Princess Alexander | 2019 | 29:09.001 race | 24:45.001 race | -15.09% |
| Madison Hoang | 2019 | 35:59.001 race | 31:46.001 race | -11.72% |
| Isabella Murray | 2019 | 34:35.001 race | 30:41.001 race | -11.28% |
| G Quealy | 2019 | 28:08.002 races | 25:17.001 race | -10.13% |
| Jonah Rothman | 2019 | 25:12.001 race | 22:41.001 race | -9.99% |
| Sunny Li | 2019 | 31:11.001 race | 28:06.001 race | -9.89% |
| Elisabeth Marota | 2019 | 31:45.001 race | 28:38.001 race | -9.82% |
| Emily English | 2019 | 27:27.002 races | 25:01.001 race | -8.86% |
| Aitong (Ivy) Li | 2019 | 26:25.001 race | 24:08.001 race | -8.64% |
| Ingrid Yeung | 2019 | 26:24.001 race | 24:08.001 race | -8.59% |
| Jiayi Yu | 2019 | 31:10.001 race | 28:31.001 race | -8.50% |
| Hope Xayaveth | 2019 | 29:28.001 race | 27:01.001 race | -8.31% |
| Helena Xie | 2019 | 26:08.001 race | 24:17.001 race | -7.08% |
| Ryan Chiari | 2019 | 20:36.001 race | 19:11.001 race | -6.88% |
| Cameron Walker | 2019 | 27:30.002 races | 25:38.001 race | -6.79% |
| Lily Walsh | 2019 | 25:39.001 race | 23:59.001 race | -6.50% |
| Emily Taylor | 2019 | 25:29.001 race | 23:55.001 race | -6.15% |
| Ashley Battiata | 2019 | 27:10.001 race | 25:33.001 race | -5.95% |
| Aidan Humphreys | 2019 | 20:04.001 race | 19:00.001 race | -5.32% |
| Kylie Bogar | 2019 | 27:57.002 races | 26:28.001 race | -5.31% |
| Sawyer Helzberg | 2019 | 22:59.001 race | 21:49.001 race | -5.08% |
| Paula Hornbostel | 2019 | 28:00.001 race | 26:35.001 race | -5.06% |
| Ally Gilbert | 2019 | 27:24.002 races | 26:08.001 race | -4.62% |
| Virginia Thompson | 2019 | 27:03.002 races | 25:49.001 race | -4.56% |
| Theodore Dowd | 2024 | 18:46.001 race | 18:01.001 race | -4.00% |
| Lindsay Tucker | 2019 | 26:42.002 races | 25:41.001 race | -3.81% |
| Grant Coldren | 2019 | 20:16.001 race | 19:36.001 race | -3.29% |
| J. Wei | 2019 | 27:24.001 race | 26:30.001 race | -3.28% |
| Noah Naddaff-Slocum | 2019 | 21:28.001 race | 20:49.001 race | -3.03% |
| Lilly Bradley | 2019 | 19:58.002 races | 19:24.001 race | -2.84% |
| Steven Silvers | 2024 | 19:03.001 race | 18:32.001 race | -2.71% |
| Conor Mannion | 2019 | 22:49.001 race | 22:20.001 race | -2.12% |
| Oliver Massey | 2024 | 21:15.001 race | 20:49.001 race | -2.04% |
| Peter Chen | 2022 | 20:44.001 race | 20:21.201 race | -1.83% |
| Garner Thompson | 2019 | 19:27.001 race | 19:06.001 race | -1.80% |
| Theodore Dowd | 2022 | 21:46.001 race | 21:23.301 race | -1.74% |
| Natalie Kloman | 2019 | 31:04.001 race | 30:33.001 race | -1.66% |
| Tony Yin | 2024 | 24:30.001 race | 24:10.001 race | -1.36% |
| Max Meyerhardt | 2019 | 19:35.001 race | 19:20.001 race | -1.28% |
| Alexa Adams | 2022 | 24:16.001 race | 23:57.701 race | -1.26% |
| George Reinhardt | 2019 | 19:17.001 race | 19:05.001 race | -1.04% |
| Evan Schneider | 2024 | 19:38.001 race | 19:27.001 race | -0.93% |
| Luke Driscoll | 2024 | 19:41.001 race | 19:30.001 race | -0.93% |
| Breanna Kunkel | 2022 | 22:10.001 race | 21:59.001 race | -0.83% |
| Joshua Rocha | 2019 | 21:02.001 race | 20:54.001 race | -0.63% |
| Dylan Crawford | 2024 | 19:37.001 race | 19:31.001 race | -0.51% |
| Padma Mynampaty | 2019 | 32:46.001 race | 32:38.001 race | -0.41% |
| Evan Schneider | 2022 | 21:12.001 race | 21:08.101 race | -0.31% |
| Andrew Correia | 2019 | 23:09.001 race | 23:05.001 race | -0.29% |
| Benjamin Koper | 2019 | 20:52.001 race | 20:49.001 race | -0.24% |
| Luke Driscoll | 2022 | 21:03.001 race | 21:00.001 race | -0.24% |
| Caitlyn Hsu | 2024 | 25:00.001 race | 25:03.001 race | +0.20% |
| Cole Zaleski | 2019 | 21:14.001 race | 21:19.001 race | +0.39% |
| Tommy Gaffey | 2019 | 16:21.001 race | 16:26.001 race | +0.51% |
| Ella Richards | 2021 | 25:18.001 race | 25:26.001 race | +0.53% |
| Quinn Bartling | 2024 | 21:38.001 race | 21:45.001 race | +0.54% |
| Alyssa McGuirl | 2022 | 28:23.001 race | 28:35.401 race | +0.73% |
| Samuel Lyons | 2019 | 20:10.001 race | 20:21.001 race | +0.91% |
| Renee Martell | 2024 | 26:14.001 race | 26:29.001 race | +0.95% |
| Jameso Flaherty-Clapham | 2022 | 27:55.001 race | 28:12.001 race | +1.01% |
| Cam Dailey | 2019 | 21:33.001 race | 21:51.001 race | +1.39% |
| Kenzie Murphy | 2024 | 21:59.001 race | 22:18.001 race | +1.44% |
| Conor Mannion | 2022 | 21:26.001 race | 21:45.201 race | +1.49% |
| Kylie Bogar | 2022 | 26:01.001 race | 26:26.401 race | +1.63% |
| Tyler Cornetta | 2019 | 22:42.001 race | 23:07.001 race | +1.84% |
| Kaitie Donahue | 2024 | 24:40.001 race | 25:09.001 race | +1.96% |
| Virginia Thompson | 2021 | 25:11.001 race | 25:41.001 race | +1.99% |
| Megan Corry | 2022 | 25:52.001 race | 26:23.101 race | +2.00% |
| KJ Irving | 2024 | 23:12.001 race | 23:42.001 race | +2.16% |
| Connor Keleher | 2024 | 23:08.001 race | 23:38.001 race | +2.16% |
| Calvin Smith | 2019 | 18:45.001 race | 19:10.001 race | +2.22% |
| Rileigh Murphy-Morris | 2021 | 28:17.001 race | 28:56.001 race | +2.30% |
| Emily Bunn | 2022 | 21:40.001 race | 22:10.301 race | +2.33% |
| Aly Mantville | 2021 | 25:17.001 race | 25:53.001 race | +2.37% |
| Brooke Hansen | 2022 | 21:39.001 race | 22:10.901 race | +2.46% |
| Charlie Gilman | 2024 | 24:10.001 race | 24:47.001 race | +2.55% |
| Annabel McNamara | 2022 | 25:49.001 race | 26:30.901 race | +2.70% |
| Eli Helzberg | 2019 | 22:23.001 race | 23:00.001 race | +2.76% |
| Shay Kellin | 2022 | 26:54.001 race | 27:40.401 race | +2.87% |
| Mark Ryan | 2019 | 17:37.001 race | 18:11.001 race | +3.22% |
| Robert Peirce | 2024 | 22:13.001 race | 22:57.001 race | +3.30% |
| Katie Wipf | 2022 | 21:31.001 race | 22:14.501 race | +3.37% |
| Hanna Lapides | 2019 | 25:19.001 race | 26:14.001 race | +3.62% |
| Brendan Brosnan | 2024 | 17:49.001 race | 18:29.001 race | +3.74% |
| Amanda Gary | 2019 | 24:10.001 race | 25:05.001 race | +3.79% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2022 | 21:21.001 race | 22:09.701 race | +3.80% |
| Caitlin Fitzgerald | 2021 | 22:42.001 race | 23:34.001 race | +3.82% |
| Ella Richards | 2022 | 22:23.001 race | 23:14.301 race | +3.82% |
| Maddie Stearns | 2022 | 22:39.001 race | 23:34.601 race | +4.09% |
| Virginia Thompson | 2022 | 22:34.001 race | 23:33.801 race | +4.42% |
| R. Murphy | 2024 | 24:14.001 race | 25:21.001 race | +4.61% |
| Annabel McNamara | 2024 | 23:48.001 race | 24:54.001 race | +4.62% |
| Madeline Pike | 2022 | 22:18.001 race | 23:20.901 race | +4.70% |
| Brooke Hansen | 2021 | 21:53.001 race | 22:58.001 race | +4.95% |
| Griffin Gibbs | 2019 | 21:32.001 race | 22:40.001 race | +5.26% |
| Alexa Adams | 2024 | 22:50.001 race | 24:03.001 race | +5.33% |
| Alyssa McGuirl | 2024 | 24:44.001 race | 26:04.001 race | +5.39% |
| Erin Green | 2022 | 25:45.001 race | 27:11.901 race | +5.62% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2021 | 21:44.001 race | 23:02.001 race | +5.98% |
| Colleen Leary | 2022 | 22:13.001 race | 23:36.201 race | +6.24% |
| Megan Corry | 2021 | 21:53.001 race | 23:19.001 race | +6.55% |
| Katie Wipf | 2021 | 20:59.001 race | 22:23.001 race | +6.67% |
| Brendan Brosnan | 2022 | 19:59.001 race | 21:19.201 race | +6.69% |
| Mia McLean | 2021 | 21:44.001 race | 23:13.001 race | +6.83% |
| Chloe Clifford | 2021 | 20:15.001 race | 21:39.001 race | +6.91% |
| Tommy Bi | 2022 | 21:03.001 race | 22:32.001 race | +7.05% |
| Maddie Stearns | 2021 | 21:35.001 race | 23:11.001 race | +7.41% |
| Lindsey Bennett | 2022 | 22:33.001 race | 24:20.001 race | +7.91% |
| Kiera Furness | 2024 | 28:29.001 race | 30:46.001 race | +8.02% |
| Colleen Leary | 2021 | 23:35.001 race | 25:29.001 race | +8.06% |
| Eloise Daniello | 2021 | 21:48.001 race | 23:41.001 race | +8.64% |
| Kylie Bogar | 2021 | 30:23.001 race | 33:24.001 race | +9.93% |
| Connor Bragg | 2024 | 22:51.001 race | 25:08.001 race | +9.99% |
| Cate Devaney | 2022 | 22:41.001 race | 25:32.601 race | +12.61% |
| Alexa Adams | 2021 | 25:26.001 race | 28:57.001 race | +13.83% |